Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-09-30 12:44:45

Constituency Profile


Ashfield, Keith

Babineau, Mary Lou

DeCourcey, Matt

Scott-Levesque, Sharon

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 2140.55%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (176/179 polls, 99.47% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Keith Ashfield

   New Brunswick Southwest
   (3/179 polls, 0.53% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

John Williamson


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15 10 14 Mark in Mexico
Craig says: 'Thus there is no good reason for VoteTogether.ca to have alienated Green supporters by trying to trash their only rational vote target in Atlantic region.'
As far as I can tell, the priority of VoteTogether.ca and the ABH movement in general is electing a non-Conservative, not assembling a proportionally representative slate. Three riding polls in Fredericton, in combination with no shortage of regional polling, have given all progressive parties a chance to earn such endorsements, and there is already a clear winner in Fredericton's 'progressive primary,' which began in very muddy waters this summer, when the NDP looked to be threatening.
...the first two riding polls showed the Liberals and Conservatives closely competing;
...the third poll finally yielded the ABH dream: an 11% lead for a non-CPC candidate;
...Mr. Ashfield's support has held steady near a third and not showed clear evidence of decline; and
...the Greens' numbers have remained stagnant, both locally and regionally...
...then if I were a Green ABH voter in Fredericton, I'd be rightly ticked off if VoteTogether.ca endorsed the Green candidate in the face of a mountain of evidence that the movement is coalescing around the candidate with 43% in the polls, not the one with 12%, in fourth place.
If VoteTogether.ca did such a thing, it would be a major blow to their credibility -- and it would alienate a hell of a lot more voters.
I'm a fan of the concept of proportional representation, so I would love to see the Greens be better represented, but the fact of the matter is, with E-day just days away, there is no 'rational vote target for the Greens in the Atlantic region.' The Greens have not earned that privilege in Atlantic Canada. Maybe next time, but this year, best look west. Swap elsewhere.
15 10 11 Craig Hubley
Yes 'there seems little reason for voters who appear to be coalescing behind the Liberals to switch to [Greens] in order to defeat the incumbents,' yes, but there is also thus little reason for NDP or Green voters not to. A consistent 5 to 7 point lead has been reported in every Environics riding level poll at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_Canadian_federal_election,_2015_by_constituency
Thus there is no good reason for VoteTogether.ca to have alienated Green supporters by trying to trash their only rational vote target in Atlantic region. This will probably affect the Green participation in that project and so lean things slightly towards the Conservatives across the region.
But in Fredericton itself, there's no good reason not to vote Green then. The odds of it electing Ashfield appear to be remote. Unless we think the Trudeau surge is over and the Conservatives will bounce back in the region?
Ridings like this are too weird to call. Normal dynamics do not apply. An NDP voter here would be wise to call up friends next door in Fundy Royal and arrange a vote swap because Jennifer McKenzie is the best NDP pickup prospect in NB, and there are lots of Greens there. Given Liberal high tide, I see the NDP and Green support consolidating in a few places where all the donors, volunteers, vote swaps and leader visits will now go.
15 10 07 DSR
Environics poll (15/10/4) Lib 43%, Con 32%, NDP 14%, Green 12%. The Greens are doing better here than in most ridings but there seems little reason for voters who appear to be coalescing behind the Liberals to switch to them in order to defeat the incumbents.
15 10 02 Marco Ricci
According to the latest polling, the Liberal lead has grown in the Maritimes over the course of the campaign, and it is the NDP numbers that have dropped off. (In fact, today's Nanos shows the NDP falling behind CPC in the Atlantic region).
Nanos - Atlantic
LPC - 53.7
CPC - 22.2
NDP - 19.4
15 10 02 R.O.
I think its too early to call this one , Keith Ashfield is still a strong candidate for the conservatives here . he has been mp since 2008 and been in provincial politics before that. A long list of polls have shown the conservative numbers improving nationally from where they were earlier in campaign although the east coast remains a tougher area for them. But he has got elected in this riding twice before and feel it be too early to say what might happen here. the liberal candidate he's facing Matt Decourcey from what I read is somewhat new and doesn't have much elected experience . I'd say this riding remains too close to call for the time being
15 10 03 Craig Hubley
I agree the Liberal call is premature. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_Canadian_federal_election,_2015_by_constituency reports two riding level polls, both by Environics, reporting a 5 point lead for Liberal over Conservative on August 16, and another 5 point lead over Conservative on September 19, with the NDP and Greens losing 8 points in that month. That suggests to me that votes are slipping Lib to Con and NDP to Lib. That process will likely continue for the next month as NDP has lost ground every week since the long campaign began and are now just running out of money. However I predict also a Green boost from influx of volunteers, donors and vote swap offers (which liberate more votes than the actual swaps) and from the anti-C-51 voters etc shifting NDP to Green.
In theory the points are there for an NDP or Green win, but only if the Cons are perceived as a continuing threat, but the Liberal and NDP fall off so much that the vote can consolidate around the Green. That is pretty much what happened in Saanich-Gulf Islands in 2011, leading to a whopping 6209 vote victory for Elizabeth May over Gary Lunn with 10686 votes wasted on Liberal and NDP also-rans. No poll had predicted that.
So while I am not calling this as a Green lock, it's also clearly not a Liberal lock, as they dynamics of a Green star candidate are different, very different, and that's not even considering that two ridings just next door (Fundy Royal, NB Southwest) are full of Green votes that the NDP are itching to get. I would not rule out the Greens in those two ridings just openly endorsing the NDP in exchange for an NDP endorsement of Babineau...
That's the smart thing to do. Question is, are these parties that smart?
15 10 03 Atlantic Election Guy
I disagree with the previous poster that the Green Party will be a factor. They would need to take almost 75% of downtown Fredericton (they only needed 30% for David Coon's win) as they are not that strong outside of the downtown core. I certainly think they will have a good showing in this riding, possibly at the expense of the NDP, but I stand by my earlier prediction of Liberal win.
15 10 01 F Master Flex
The Liberal call for this riding is far too premature. The recent Environics poll of Fredericton puts both the Conservatives and Liberals within eachother when one accounts for the margin of error (37% Lib vs. 32% Con on a 3.5% MOE).
Moreover, the apparent softening of the NDP vote here compared to the poll done in August appears to have split evenly between the Liberals and Conservatives, so there is no apparent exclusive vote shift trend towards to the Liberals.
As for on-the-ground organization, downtown Fredericton is Babineau Country, with the Green candidate dominating the lawn sign war. This indicates that the Green vote in Fredericton is solid and not moving to the Liberals in a fit of strategic-voting panic. This could make the difference for the Liberals locally. Interestingly, the biggest challenge for the local Conservatives is the relatively robust NDP campaign (which appears to be performing best on Fredericton's North Side according to lawn signs), as there are many Conservative-NDP switchers in this part of the world.
The upshot is that this riding is still TCTC.
15 09 22 Atlantic Election Guy
After spending more time in this riding, I'm ready to make the prediction of Liberal. A few reasons:
- The NDP candidate is not gaining much traction with door to door interaction. While the NDP have seen a nice bump regionally, Levesque has not capitalized on a local level.
- The Liberal candidate is extremely well organized and recently saw a large rally with Decourcey and Trudeau.
- The Liberals are hoping to take more of the traditionally Tory military vote this election. After all of the issues with veterans affairs, the Liberals are capitalizing on the momentum in places such as Oromocto.
- And finally, while everyone in Fredericton thinks he is a nice man and wishes him all the best, there is a true worry with Keith Ashfield's health and weather he would survive another 4 years in office. While he has been out campaigning, his double bout with lymphoma has taken a visible toll.
Taking into account all these factors, I beleive this riding will go Liberal on October 19.
15 09 10 Spx
I would say the outcome here will depend mostly on how good or bad the NDP is going to fare in the last stretch of the election. If they get a little boost it should go NDP, if not I'd call it for the Liberals
15 09 05 Agent Red
Fredericton is one of 11 ridings being targeted by LeadNow. They're doing local polling and focusing their efforts on local and not regional polls.
Their last poll had the Liberals leading, but it's still much too early to speculate who LeadNow will endorse, and how much impact it will have on this prediction. All depends on how many people in the riding are pledging to vote for whoever LeadNow endorses.
15 09 01 Marco Ricci
Latest polls show NDP support dropping, and Liberal support rising. The Liberals have a substantial lead in Atlantic Canada according to the latest polls, with the NDP 2nd, and the CPC way down in 3rd.
Late August Abacus numbers for Atlantic: LPC 47, NDP 31, CPC 19
Late August EKOS numbers for Atlantic: LPC 45, NDP 34, CPC 14
As Abacus reported yesterday, NDP support has dropped 5 points in the Atlantic region since their previous poll:
It's hard to know how the general Atlantic numbers specifically apply to New Brunswick, but presumably the Liberals have a good shot at having the edge in Fredericton now.
15 08 25 Atlantic Election Guy
Everyone has stated this is now a three way race due to the Environics poll and I tend to agree. The one this I took away from that poll is that the Green Party are currently polling at 10% (12% among decided voters). With the trend of a three way race shaping up, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Green share move towards the NDP with a view to really shake things up. I honestly didn't think the NDP would have a real shot, but it's starting to look like it could be an Orange wave in the East too.
15 08 22 Marco Ricci
The Environics riding poll is a positive sign for the Liberals, but because of the close spread and the margin of error, this riding will remain close going into September/October. The Conservatives could catch up, and the NDP, although 3rd, have an outside shot.
15 08 22 Mad Caper
I have waited until the dust settled from the Election call to report on this riding.This riding has become a 3 way race over the last 4 months and has only become closer in the last month.The latest poll has put the liberals 5 points in front of the Tories and 7 on the New Democrats however the Election site Threehundredeight.com has the New Democrats in 1st place by 1 % with the Liberals and Tories very close behind.This is the first time any of the polling firms and sites have had the New Democrats in first place in this riding during this Election or any other election to my knowledge(I stand to be corrected on this statement) and lends credence to the fact that this is a very close race and should be moved to the TCTC bracket.With the Tories dropping,the Libs stagnant and the N.D.P. inching further ahead in the National polls the riding is winnable by any of the 3 main Parties.TCTC.
15 08 21 F Master Flex
The aforementioned Environics/Leadnow poll would suggest that Fredericton is shaping up to be a three-way race, with only 8 points separating the first and third-place candidates. Those who are calling this Liberal already are ignoring both that the election is still two months away and that the margin of error along does not make the riding a safe Liberal bet by any stretch. As far as things look on the ground here, the NDP, interestingly enough, almost have a monopoly on lawn sign presence (with only a few Conservative signs also having been spotted). Yes, I know that signs don't vote, but it does indicate both identified support and on-the-ground organization. It all adds up to what could very well be one of the few three-way fights east of Quebec.
15 08 22 A.S.
Even before said Environics poll came out, I envisaged Fredericton's polling map looking like a platter of seasoned McCain's shoestrings with potentially no candidate with over 30% of the vote--Cons w/incumbency, Libs w/regional strength, NDP w/national strength, Greens w/the David Coon factor. Don't say I didn't have a finger on *that* pulse. (And yeah--due to historical settlement patterns, the Fredericton area really *does* look like a plate of shoestrings.)
15 08 23 Analyst
Recent 308 projection gives the NDP in this riding a 50% chance of victory with around at 0.5% Lead. It is pretty well known within the political bubble that Leadnow is not the most accurate or unbiased organization- and I would take their polls with a grain of salt. Even if true, the current standings are all within the margin of error. The Leadnow poll combined with 308's prediction leads me to believe that all three major parties are neck and neck- and this riding will be decided by where the green vote goes. If many greens strategically vote for the NDP, (especially since there is the proportional representation argument which would benefit the greens in the long run) the NDP will have this riding in the bag. I never thought that I would say this- but the Green voters hold the balance of power in this riding and they may either split the New Democrat vote and we will see a Liberal or Conservative victory- or a last minute strategic switch would see the NDP to victory.
Given the large discrepancy between 308's green support numbers and the ones given by Leadnow the greens are the wildcard here (with no chance of victory themselves).
15 08 20 Garth
Recent Environics riding-specific poll shows the Liberals with a 5% lead over the Conservatives. NDP in third place.
15 08 21 Balon
Mid-August Environs poll on behalf of Leadnow has LPC 34%, CPC 29%, NDP 26%, Green 12%. Still close, but...
15 08 21 AJ
A recent Environics poll puts voting intentions in this riding at 29% LPC, 25% CPC, 22% NDP, 10% GPC, and 15% undecided. The sample size was 799, which is great for a riding poll, and the margin of error 3.5%. (https://s3.amazonaws.com/leadnow/Environics-leadnow-aug-19-15.pdf)
When compared to 2011 (47% CPC, 24% LPC, 24% NDP, 4% Green), it is clear most of the movement away from the CPC here has gone to the LPC and, to a lesser extent, the Greens. The big thing to watch here is what the Green vote ultimately does. There are a sizeable number of undecideds here, and undoubtedly people whose support for their current party is soft. If the Greens remain relatively low and the LPC gains more of the undecideds and potentially some switchers, they should be fine. If they surge, however, all bets are off.
15 08 19 PoliGuru
It seems like the NDP are much better organized in this riding- their signs are up everywhere much earlier than anyone else. Harper also just recently visited this riding and was met with protestors- even going so far as to barring entrance to Veterans who weren't vetted for the event. Reporters followed him and bombarded him with questions about the Duffy trial and completely threw him off message. I'm not so sure that Fredericton will re-elect Keith Ashfield, a man who's health is unfortunately failing him. Given the current unpopularity of Brian Gallant's provincial Liberals at the moment I can't see them winning either.
I'd have to call this a tentative NDP- but I wouldn't be surprised it it came down to a few hundred votes.
15 08 12 F Master Flex
A few responses to some previous posts:
1. The potential of the Greens in Fredericton is seriously overstated by some. Yes, David Coon holds the provincial seat in the middle of the riding, and the Greens are running an active campaign with a credible candidate (who also ran here in 2008 and had the second best Green result east of Ontario), but they have at best a ceiling of 15% here. First, Coon did not win his own riding by a significant margin and his seat makes up relatively little of the whole federal riding. Indeed, the provincial results from 2014 for the Greens in the polls that make up the federal riding totaled just under 12%. And while Mary Lou Babineau secured 10% here in 2008, that was in an election that was much better for the Greens nationally than the polls suggest is the case in 2015. The Greens will put up a solid effort, and maybe even have their best result east of Ontario here, but anything other than fourth place is not in the cards for them.
2. Fredericton, as far as recent federal political voting history is concerned, is very much more like Ontario than Atlantic Canada. In the last four federal elections, the vote share in Fredericton for the Conservatives, NDP, and Liberals came within no more than four percent of what the respective parties got in Ontario in the same election. Thus, Atlantic Canadian polling trends may not be as useful in gauging what is happening here as polls for Ontario.
3. One poster mentioned the presence of the universities in Fredericton as a bonus for the Liberal campaign. However, Fredericton is very much the sort of riding where the Liberal support for Bill C-51 will hurt them among potential supporters. Think of Fredericton as a Maritime version of Kingston-The Islands or Guelph.
4. All three main opposition parties are running full and active campaigns, making a prediction here even harder. The Conservatives can't be easily counted out either and will be no pushovers. Whoever does win could very well do so with only 35%.
15 08 12 Craig Hubley
Changing this to TCTC. 308 calls it Liberal, I'm still not sure because the Green rise and provincial presence is such a wild card in this riding.
However, today Atlantic regional coverage of Nigel Wright in the Mike Duffy trial was withering. Wright's story is not credible, Harper has contradicted himself on the campaign trail vs. the House, and the long dirty trail of coverup in the Senate committees simply does not match the Wright story that he personally just stepped in to cover up on his own. Nigel Wright does not have the authority to order Senate committee reports be hushed up or edited. Nor does anyone just drop a $90K cheque without some expectation of quid pro quo - in particular the rich do not do that.
In provincial capitals like Halifax and Fredericton, where people debate politics all day in coffee shops and more people work in offices than in factories, this story has far more impact, and is far less credible than in the back woods. The story is damaging and Atlantic Canada does care about ethics and especially cares about coverups for crooked Senators who claim to be from PEI but are really from Ottawa. PEI is just north aways.
15 08 12 Monkey Cheese
The Liberals always do well in more urban cities and Freddy is no exception. They appear to have rebounded in the Atlantic at the expense of the Conservatives, who have been free falling in the region as of late. It's still early in the campaign, but as of this post, it's the Liberals who have the momentum in Atlantic Canada.
15 08 10 Craig Hubley
Reiterating my Conservative call. The Green candidate seems to be angled to pull NDP.
Given the NDP rise in the region, that simply means a more even split with the Liberals and a few points more to the Greens coming off the NDP due to David Coon's appeal and opposition to Energy East (protesters were at Tom Mulcair's book launch today opposing it, he's not going to dodge this one).
The electoral system fails us again and Conservatives will win due to split.
15 07 24 Mad Caper
This is a riding that the Tories up until lately had considered to be a fairly safe seat in Atlantic Canada. If the polls are any indication that has all changed dramatically in the last 2 months. As the polls have it in this riding there is less than a 10% difference from 1st to 3rd and had made this riding appear to be one to watch on Election night. All parties have nominated their candidates and maybe the one to watch may be the Green Party and who they will take votes from if they take any at all. For now this seat is definitely TCTC.
15 07 23 Atlantic Election Guy
This one is too close to call at the moment. The candidates have been named and will make for an interesting race:
Conservatives - Keith Ashfield
The incumbent is the former minister of Fisheries, ACOA, and has been a high profile NB MP. After taking some time to recover from his second bout with Hodgkin's lymphoma, Ashfield announced he would run for a third time in the riding he won in 2008. Fredericton was traditionally a conservative riding until Andy Scott won for the Liberals between 1993-2008.
Liberals - Matt DeCourcey
Decourcey is a young Fredericton native who won the nomination over a former provincial cabinet minister. He formerly worked for Andy Scott and has been campaigning for months. He may benefit from the current trend of Liberals leading in Atlantic Canada, but it will be a tough contest. One of the biggest things in DeCourcey's favour is that Fredericton is a university town and school will be in session during this election (unlike the 2011 May election). He will need to ride a strong student vote to capture the riding.
NDP - Sharon Scott-Levesque
Ms. Scott-Levesque is no stranger to elections, having run for the NDP in the past two provincial elections. While this riding has maintained strong allegiances to the two traditional parties, the election of the Green Party leader in Fredericton last provincial election shows that the riding would not be opposed to this change. Ms. Scott-Levesque has been a nurse and is well known in the provincial curling community. She is also well organized and will work as hard (if not harder) than anyone in this riding.
Green Party - Mary Lou Babineau
Ms. Babineau is a university professor in Fredericton and has run for the Green Party before (2008), getting 10% of the vote. As the last provincial election proved, the Green party will be taken seriously. However, with the strength of the other three parties, Ms. Babineau will face an uphill battle. While she may not win, Ms. Babineau could have a large impact on the results depending on whether she steals votes from the NDP or Liberals.
This is a true toss up.
15 04 04 Marco Ricci
The poster below made a good point about the difference between provincial & federal ridings - unless it's a province like Ontario where the federal & provincial ridings are the same, there are usually more provincial ridings. Eg. there are only 10 New Brunswick federal ridings, but 49 provincial ones. So there's only 1 Fredericton federal riding, but several provincial ridings within the federal one. David Coon was elected in Fredericton South, which contains the downtown area and the universities. David Coon is also the Green Leader in this province so it made sense for them to focus a lot of their resources on getting him elected to the Legislature. The Federal Green Party is more likely to be focused on ridings on the West Coast around Liz May's home base where they have a better chance. Liz May doesn't seem to have Fredericton on her list of targets so far.
15 03 30 full name
A lot has been made about David Coon, but keep in mind his provincial district is only a small part of the federal riding. If anything, it's balanced out by the military vote in Oromocto, plus what little of the rural Tory vote hasn't been redistributed out.
I think this race will be won in the suburban areas of Fredericton (mostly the northside), whose voting patterns are similar to the 905. It's been said on this site before and it's true: Ontario poll numbers are a better indication of how Fredericton will go than Atlantic ones, and they're both still TCTC for now.
15 03 28 monkey
Since the riding is more centered around Fredericton and thus is more urban than rural, I would say the Liberals are the best bet. The Tories will probably win most of the rural polls but the urban polls should be enough to put the Liberals over the top. The only reason I am not calling this is this riding is more favourable to the Conservatives than most in Atlantic Canada so if things tighten up a bit the Tories may still hold it, but it will be an uphill battle.
15 03 28 Stevo
Fredericton is probably the 'swingiest' riding in all of Atlantic Canada, if we're talking purely Liberal-Conservative swings, and will likely fall under whatever party wins nationally. TCTC.
15 03 21 Brian A
Freddy is still TCTC. Harper has a CabMin here, so the odds are in Ashfield's favour; plus Gagetown in here (I believe). This is the riding that, provincially, has the NBGreen leader in it, so May will probably make this a place where she'll hope to make hay. This is also the place where most of the NBNDP's support lies (what support they have, anyway), since the provincial leader Dominic Cardy lives here; so the NDP could potentially run someone here that may pick up a fair chunk of the vote - maybe. The Liberals have an advantage in Atlantic Canada overall, though, so many think this urban region will be Trudeau's to lose.
I'm going to follow the way the wind is blowing and call this one early for the Liberals. But this seat could be an interesting one to watch.
15 03 18 Craig Hubley
With David Coon, leader of the NS Greens, in the legislature as the MLA for the (much smaller) Fredericton provincial district, the Greens won't likely concede this seat or swap too many votes out. Despite the poor chance to win this time. Thus a three way vote split favours Conservative chances.

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