Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-03-19 18:24:17

Constituency Profile


Montgomery, Mike

Samson, Darrell

Stoffer, Peter

Strickland, Robert Thomas

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 30.01%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Sackville-Eastern Shore
   (217/221 polls, 99.65% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Peter Stoffer

   Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley
   (2/221 polls, 0.35% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Scott Armstrong


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15 10 13 SC
I'd call this the safest of the NDP seats in Nova Scotia, and I don't think Stoffer is in any real trouble. He's a long-serving and popular MP with a good reputation; I'd consider Halifax a likelier candidate for a Liberal swing, if such a thing is to happen (certainly, the Liberal campaign there is more aggressive).
15 10 11 M
With the Liberals polling over 50% in Atlantic Canada, only a couple of NDP members that may survive. Tories are facing a complete shutout in Atlantic Canada. My feeling is that this seat is one the NDP should be able to hold on, but will be a nail-biter on election night. I would say this riding is TCTC at the moment, solely on the strength of Mr. Stoffer.
Stoffer is obviously king of this riding, but Samson is a higher-profile and better-organized candidate than we have seen in a while. I won't be surprised if he gets 30% of the vote.
The CPC candidate is Robert Strickland, not Richard.
15 09 12 Jim
At first I thought this was a sure thing for Stoffer but now I'm not so sure. There are quite a few Liberal signs popping up on lawns and I'm hearing a lot of talk around the riding about Trudeau and the local candidate.
15 09 07 Robert
Based off of the fact that Peter Stoffer is likeable, he is personable, he knows his community and he does whatever is needed for his riding that is possible at a federal level as an MP.
Peter Stoffer is no doubt a winner in this riding. He has held the riding for the past 18 years, he will have it until such time that he decides to retire.
15 09 01 Tony
No contest. Stoffer wins here.
15 08 05 Balon
This riding was created in for the 1997 election, when Stoffer won it (narrowly) in the Alexa wave which took all four Halifax ridings. He's held it ever since, with the governing party generally coming second.
The only time in the last 50 years this riding could have been called 'red' was after the 1993 election, when the Liberals won all eleven seats in Nova Scotia. Before that, it was Tory blue under Mike Forrestall, Howard Crosby and Bob McCleave in Dartmouth, Halifax West and Halifax-East Hants respectively.
15 08 04 NSSoccer
Liberals finally have a candidate worth looking at in this riding. Looks like he has the fundraising and political know how necessary to steal the seat (getting some backing from Trudeau and his posse - Ralph Goodale came to visit - so they must have some faith). It is a red riding, that has been voting for Peter Stoffer. Need to feel comfortable with change and Samson seems like a viable alternative.
15 06 28 A.S.
Though Stoffer's share *did* decline on behalf of the Tories in 2011--a token dead cat bounce, since he was already top-heavy in 2008. And in a post-Peter MacKay era, any further such swing is unlikely.
15 04 23 westnovascotian
Should be a lock for Stoffer until he retires.
15 04 12 Madcaper
This is a slam dunk for Peter. This is his seat until he is ready to retire.
15 03 28 monkey
Normally this would be an easy Liberal pickup and perhaps in the future if the Tories return to their old PC roots they might be competitive here, but Peter Stoffer is extremely popular thus as long as he runs he should keep this in the NDP column.
15 03 22 Dr. Bear
This is a Peter Stoffer riding, and with him the NDP will hold it. At the moment, I'm calling this the only NDP riding in Nova Scotia and one of three they hold in the Atlantic provinces.
15 03 21 Brian A
This seat is Peter's seat for as long as he wants it. And when he retires, it'll go Conservative.
15 03 18 Craig Hubley
Peter Stoffer hold. Not an NDP hold, a Peter Stoffer hold. It's different.

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Canada Federal Election - 2015
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