Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-03-19 18:24:17

Constituency Profile


Brison, Scott

Brown-Hodges, Megan

Cooper, Will

Curry, Hugh

Morse, David

Twohig, Edd

Williams, Clifford James

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (216/216 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Scott Brison


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15 09 23 Taurean
Don't live here anymore but my aunt lives near Canning in the eastern part of the riding. Anywhere else in a rural district this would go otherwise. Scott and his able staff have made this liberal brison riding. So many other floor crossers fared poorly - however this is a man of conviction and a strong house in presence. Mr brison deserves to be retuned to Ottawa regardless of the many challenges he might face
15 09 05 A.S.
Funny how it took NDP nomination sideshow antics to put Kings-Hants back on any political-discussion radar; otherwise it would have been more like 'Scott Brison? You still kicking?' rubber-stamp autopilot. And Brison might as well be taking a nothing-to-see-here-move-on approach to this here candidacy crisis; the accident's not obstructing his lane in electoral traffic, anyway...
15 09 01 Tony
Funny to think Brison was at one a PC MP and ran for the leadership of that party. Those days are over but he will hold onto to his seat.
15 09 01 RJC
This riding has turned into a complete gong show for the NDP, which only serves to bolster Brison's already very strong chances.
15 08 27 Marco Ricci
Canadian Press reports that the replacement candidate the NDP wanted will not run because he thinks it was unfair for Wheeldon to be removed:
'The party's hand-picked replacement for Wheeldon, Stephen Schneider, issued a statement Wednesday saying he won't run because he believes Wheeldon's removal was unjust.'
The NDP is now looking again for a new candidate before the election nomination deadline on Sept 28.
15 08 16 R.O.
This riding was actually surprisingly close in 2011 when David Morse first ran and he is back this year. Well Scott Brison is one of the higher profile liberal mp's from out east. The cpc candidate in this riding David Morse has been elected here at the provincial level and served in cabinet . he is much higher profile than some of the other cpc candidates to face brison. But Brison still has somewhat of an advantage going into this campaign . so be interesting to see what happens here.
15 08 10 Craig Hubley
The NDP candidate appears to have been bullied out for past comments that question Israeli intent in the Occupied Territories, Gaza, etc.
The 33-year-old's controversial post in question said, ?One could argue that Israel's intention was always to ethnically cleanse the region ? there are direct quotations proving this to be the case. Guess we just sweep that under the rug. A minority of Palestinians are bombing buses in response to what appears to be a calculated effort to commit a war crime.?
This is disturbing and disgusting trend in Canadian politics recently, the cleansing of all persons who actually seem to cite any uncomfortable facts about Israeli cabinet and military policy, or who use phrases like 'one could argue' to introduce things that a great many people do believe but anger a particular constituency that denies Israel ever commits war crimes deliberately. Which is not the position of any major international body.
Strangely it seems that only marginal candidates seem to drop out due to these 'controversies' that aren't, which suggests it's a way to avoid vote splits. In this particular riding it clearly favours the Liberals for an NDP candidate to drop out after a fake controversy and smears by the Cons.
Is this a tactic, a way to highlight Con denial of war crimes in general, by the US or Israel? This kind of story probably hurts the Cons long term.
It makes Cons look like smearing bullies, it focuses the progressive vote for the leading candidate, and the only bad effect is that long term our freedom of speech is getting inhibited and bullies win like Charlie Sheen.
15 08 10 Marco Ricci
The NDP candidate, Morgan Wheeldon, resigned this weekend after controversial remarks about Israel surfaced. The Conservative Party campaign manager Jenni Byrne posted them online to attack the NDP.
While the NDP probably wasn't in contention to win this riding, it did have a solid 3rd place showing in 2011 and had the potential to have a decent showing here again. While the NDP is finding a replacement candidate, it gives Scott Brison more time to maintain his advantage here.
15 04 12 Madcaper
This should be a fairly easy win for Scott Brison based on all info available at this time. the only issues that could change this is a change in Conservative fortunes nationally or a big increase in support for the N.D.P. throughout the Eastern region.
15 04 16 Madcaper
Considering that Scott survived the Liberal crash in 2011 and that he is probably one of the most popular Liberals in the Province and even taking into account the unpopularity of the Provincial Liberals this seat should be safe although it was close last time out. Only time will tell if the Provincial Liberals unpopularity and Justin Trudeau dropping in the polls will flip this seat. For now a Liberal call.
15 03 28 monkey
As a likely cabinet minister if the Liberals form government, Scott Brison should easily hold this. If there was any time to defeat him, it was last election so if the Tories couldn't topple him then, I don't see how they could now.
15 03 22 Brian A
It always struck me, knowing the riding as I do, that an openly-gay incumbent would be so popular in rural Kings and Hants counties. But then, this isn't an ordinary incumbent. Scott has never let his orientation define him - not as a Tory, and not as a Liberal. He's a local boy from a beautiful part of the province, and everybody knows him and his husband as decent folks of strong progressive values.
15 03 18 Craig Hubley
Canada's first openly gay cabinet minister, one of Paul Martin's better cabinet ministers, and a former PC is a status symbol for the Liberal Party who is near-certain to be in any Liberal or coalition candidate. One of the few who actually understands the ecology-environment equation.
He is also a status symbol for the riding, which can only rally Conservative votes against him with bigotry, opportunism and hate. But there isn't much of that to find in Nova Scotia and particular not in Scott's stomping grounds. The day he got married to his long time partner, the press tried to get people to say nasty things about him, they couldn't find a single detractor. Not even among his political opponents.
The guy symbolizes most of what's right with Nova Scotia: sophisticated, gently humourous, eloquent on what really counts when it counts, outdoorsy.
No one holds him being an investment banker against him.
I doubt even a Conservative star candidate could unseat Scott, but David Morse, despite being Minister of Environment, Minister of Emergency Management, and Minister Responsible for Military Relations in the Rodney MacDonald cabinet, could not hold his seat against the NDP, and he won't unseat Scott Brison. Morse's early nomination is an attempt to pin down Brison campaigning for his own seat rather than helping in West Nova where he is also popular.

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