Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Halifax West

Prediction Changed
2015-03-19 18:24:17

Constituency Profile


Hussey, Joanne

McGinnis, Michael

Regan, Geoff

Zurawski, Richard Henryk

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Halifax West
   (161/161 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Geoff Regan


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15 09 13 A.S.
The smokescreen front of Dexter government, Alexa legacy and Orange Crush led to common assumptions that Halifax West would be, if anything, a Lib-NDP race in 2011--instead, the sleeper HarperCons came up the middle and plucked second place out of the Dippers' grip. Thus while Regan still won, it was Nova Scotia's truest 3-way marginal that year--on those grounds alone, I'll withhold a prediction, though I probably wouldn't have back when Justin was polling Maritime landslide numbers. And maybe I still shouldn't, given Justin's as-of-writing recovery and first-place re-flirtations...
15 07 22 Dr Bear
Regan is safe. He held out in the 2011 collapse, he can certainly hold on when the Liberals are looking to (at least) double their seat count (more likely more than that). It would take a major blunder on his or Trudeau's account, or a major surge by one of the other parties, to unseat him.
15 04 23 westnovascotian
Given the fact that Gerald Regan only held his seat by three-thousand votes last election and all the uproar in the Halifax area regarding the provincial Liberal budget, I would still call this TCTC. Should the Conservatives or the NDP make marginal gains this could be one to watch.
15 04 16 Madcaper
With the present problems of the Provincial Liberals re: Healthcare workers and the cut in the film and TV tax credit this seat has tightened up a fair bit. Having said this their is no doubt that the Liberal strength across the Atlantic Region is still fairly strong although concentrated in NFLD. If their vote in N.S. holds up remains to be seen and still puts this in the TCTC category.
15 04 16 Marco Ricci
Liberal hold, although it's probably an exaggeration that 'Everybody in Bedford and west-end Hali love Geoff.' While Geoff Regan is certainly the clear favourite here, he did lose in 1997 during the Alexa McDonough wave, and had a close result in 2011.
However, obviously he's pretty solid unless Liberal numbers tank. (Re-distribution also gives him an extra 2 points.)
15 03 28 monkey
If the Liberals could hold this last time around when they were doing much worse, they should easily win this time area. This riding is in Atlantic Canada where the Tories are pretty despised and is a little too affluent for the NDP so Liberal hold.
15 03 22 Brian A
Everybody in Bedford and west-end Hali love Geoff. He's more than just an MP; he's actually a really approachable guy. Liberal lock.
15 03 18 Craig Hubley
Geoff Regan will keep this. Another popular incumbent returning. Despite the race being closer in this riding than in most in Nova Scotia, Trudeau is popular and unless he makes a very Nova-Scotia-alienating gaffe, it's not likely Regan can lose on his coat-tails.

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Canada Federal Election - 2015
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