Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Cape Breton-Canso

Prediction Changed
2015-03-19 18:24:17

Constituency Profile


Coady, Maria Goretti

Cuzner, Rodger

Rodgers, Adam Daniel

Smith, Michelle

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Cape Breton-Canso
   (201/222 polls, 90.95% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Rodger Cuzner

   Central Nova
   (21/222 polls, 9.05% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Peter MacKay


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15 09 13 A.S.
I can't altogether discount NDP chances here, though they're likely generically higher in the neighbouring seat of Sydney-Victoria; also, it doesn't seem quite like 1997 all over again for the fed Grits, and Cuzner's fairly well entrenched. So, as with S-V, I'll call 'opposition split' here--but re claims for the NDP, they *do* seem to have a more qualified standard-bearer than the one who upset David Dingwall in 1997...
15 09 01 Marco Ricci
Latest polls show NDP support dropping, and Liberal support rising. The Liberals have a substantial lead in Atlantic Canada according to the latest polls, with the NDP 2nd, and the CPC way down in 3rd.
Late August Abacus numbers for Atlantic: LPC 47, NDP 31, CPC 19
Late August EKOS numbers for Atlantic: LPC 45, NDP 34, CPC 14
As Abacus reported yesterday, NDP support has dropped 5 points in the Atlantic region since their previous poll:
Liberal hold for Rodger Cuzner until we get new data showing otherwise.
15 08 10 Madcaper
Just recieved an article from the Hill Times that talks about close 2 way races between the N.D.P and Liberals and 1 of the close races is seen as Cape Breton Canso.This firms up my earlier post as TCTC.
15 08 10 Madcaper
Since my last post on this page there have been some substantial changes in the political air of this riding.The C-51 issue has taken on a life of it's own in this riding and a political riding poll in the Cape Breton Post has shown the New Democrats to be holding a slight lead on the Liberals with the Conservative vote collapsing.While it is only early in the Election this is a large swing in the direction of the New Democrats and may prove to be a sign of change on the political landscape of Cape Breton Canso.This could turn into a riding to watch on ELection night.I will change my prediction to TCTC at this point in the race.
15 08 07 East coast Musician
On recent polls from the Cape Breton Post today, showed the NDP upwards at the 32% favourite, liberal 26% and tories 19% Greens 2% Undecided 14% and Non Voters 5%. In another poll from the Chronicle Herald it showed 40% of voters where in favour of Mulcair's debate performance. It's safe to say that there is a falling out with the liberals, C-51 which Cuzner voted on has it's price, the golden boy isn't glowing the best at the moment, little is heard from Adam Rodgers of the CPC and Rodger has been slow off the mount. The area is picking up a change.
15 07 14 MadCaper
I think things have changed a small amount from my last post on this riding.The Conservatives have nominated a business man from the mainland part of the riding who has a fairly impressive resume but is from the new part of the riding after redistribution and will have his work cut out for him to increase his profile in the other extreme of this large riding which has the bulk of the voters.The New Democrats have nominated a business person also,in the name of Michelle Smith who operates North Wind Farms and is involved in many non-profit organizations and is heavily involved in her community and is known in the industrial C.B. area for her product and is in the Industrial area at least once a week so she has some profile in almost allof the area.This lady is very well spoken and articulate and stays abreast of the issues be they local,Provincial or Federal and would excell should there be any debates during the election which I have to admit I do not know how Adam Rodgers the Conservative candidate would fair should the opportunity to debate the issues arise.The biggest issue facing Rodger Cuzner is the fact the both he and Mark Eyking voted for Bill C-51(being refered to in local circles as the SPY BILL).This issue has impacted both M.P.'s support in their respective ridings and it remains to be seen if it will hurt their base enough to cause an upset.If there is a back lash from Bill C-51 it will almost certainly benifit the New Democrats only as the Green Party have not nominated a candidate yet.Should they nominate a candidate and I am sure they will at some point,they will get a small portion of the lost Liberal support also.The only question left to answer is if the back lash against the Liberal members will mushroom or not.Still a Liberal hold for the time being.
15 04 06 Madcaper
Without all the Candidates in place at this time it is safe to say that Mr. Cuzner is in the drivers seat at this time.
15 03 28 monkey
Long been a fairly safe Liberal riding so even if Justin Trudeau messes up in the general election and does worse than expected, I still suspect they will easily take this. The NDP is quite weak in Rural Nova Scotia, while the Tory changes to EI make them quite toxic here.
15 03 22 Brian A
If the Liberal Party were chased out of every seat in Canada, their last stand would be on Cape Breton Island. Since the opposite is likely, everything north of the Causeway is staying bright red.
15 03 18 Craig Hubley
It is very difficult for Liberals to lose in Cape Breton - Canso. It's as solid for them as Dartmouth for the NDP, federally. Not seeing the change.

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