Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-09-11 10:16:26

Constituency Profile


Dickieson, Herb

Ling, Nils

Morrissey, Bobby

Shea, Gail

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (85/85 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Gail Shea


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15 10 13 Marco Ricci
CTV's Robert Fife reported tonight that Conservative sources are saying that they expect to lose Gail Shea in Egmont:
15 10 12 R.O.
I agree if you went by just the regional polls which show liberals leading out east this riding would go liberal . however those don't put into other factors such as Gail Shea being the incumbent since 2008 or being a fairly high profile mp for this area. when you consider her profile in this riding and ottawa I'd still say there is a chance she could hold onto this riding however it likely be much closer than 2011 . even during years out east when the liberals did well there has always been a number of ridings where longtime incumbents for other parties still held onto there seats . it will be an interesting riding to watch on election night to see what happens here.
15 10 05 Craig Hubley
As I said, PEI likes government MPs. With the Liberal shift from third to first place, the NDP and Green supporters here will have to swap votes to oh say Fundy Royal and Fredericton respectively if they want them to count at all. PEI goes solid red, and that's all I should have to say about this province.
15 10 02 Marco Ricci
According to the latest polling, the Liberal lead has grown in the Maritimes over the course of the campaign, and the NDP numbers have dropped off. (In fact, today's Nanos shows the NDP falling behind CPC in the Atlantic region).
NDP chances here have decreased, and so it likely remains a Liberal vs. Conservative race with the edge going to the Liberals unless Gail Shea's incumbency allows her to narrowly hold on.
Nanos - Atlantic
LPC - 53.7
CPC - 22.2
NDP - 19.4
15 09 20 SC
This one could potentially be tight, but I'd say Liberal. All three parties have strong candidates, but I think PEI voters are done with the Tories, and Gail Shea did not want to run again (nor did her family want her to) -- she's doing it at the behest of the national party.
Some Liberals are still annoyed at Morrissey for dropping out in the 2008 election, which is what almost certainly allowed Shea to be elected in the first place, seeing as his replacement Keith Milligan came within a few votes of winning. All the same, he's a strong candidate, and the Liberals want to win.
Herb Dickieson is the lone successful NDP politician in PEI history, and I wouldn't be totally surprised if he won, but I doubt it.
15 09 09 Marco Ricci
Justin Trudeau was here yesterday for a rally and got an enthusiastic reception from Islanders that received a lot of press coverage:
Without specific riding numbers, it is hard to know for sure what is going on here, although 308 has this riding as an 82% chance of going Liberal as of Labour Day.
Gail Shea was able to win in 2008 & 2011 when the Conservatives were on the rise and when the Liberals were on the decline. She can retain a share of the vote, but will she be able to win again in a year in which the Conservatives are down in the Maritimes (and falling into 3rd place Nationally)? If it doesn't look like the Conservatives are going to win Government, her cabinet advantage may deteriorate.
Btw, PEI doesn't always vote for the party that wins Government. All 4 PEI seats remained Liberal in 2006 even though Harper became Prime Minister. It was only in 2008 that the Conservatives won here (and even then it was by a nose).
As for the NDP, while I think it's possible that Herb Dickieson could raise the NDP share, he's starting from very far back. Even during the Layton Wave in 2011, the NDP only got 12% compared to 31% for the Liberals. Now the NDP is higher Nationally, but so are the Liberals. So it's hard to know whether that gives the NDP an advantage or not.
Journalist David Akin said yesterday that he has Egmont in the 'Leaning LPC' column, but that Gail Shea still has a chance to hang on:
15 09 04 Teddy Boragina
I lived here for 10 years, and, I also got to know Dr. Dickieson on a personal level, so, maybe there is a bit of 'nostalgia' clouding my judgement.
In addition, the NDP is not doing nearly so well, Federally, as they were only a week ago....
PEI does not like being left out of the halls of power.
If the NDP looks like it will form government - and at this exact moment, it does - people in this riding will vote for PEI to have a cabinet minister, and that means, for the NDP.
15 09 02 Tony
Really don't know this goes, 3 strong candidates, 2 of whom would go into cabinet should their party win. Be it she's already there and although weak I think Shea holds on here but it could be by less than 200 votes.
15 08 27 John
For what it is worth, the current Globe and Mail prediction is that this riding will stay Conservative.
Also, Gail Shea is a two time incumbent, and I believe she is cabinet material. If the Conservatives for the next government, electing Shea gets this riding a seat at the cabinet table.
The only thing that would change this is if another party forms the government. That is why the national trend will play a factor in the race for this riding.
15 08 25 Mad Caper
With the apparent collapse of the Conservative support in Atlantic Canada and some high profile endorsements from both the Liberals and Conservatives for the Herb Dickerson N.D.P.campaign this is definitely ripe for an upset New Democrat win.Should the New Democrats continue to increase their support levels across the Atlantic region this should go Orange although their are still 8 weeks left in the Election and in an election 8 days can be an eternity.So for now I will still say TCTC and I will be watching this one closely.
15 08 25 CGD
Definitely Liberal. Tory support is at a record low in Atlantic Canada. No chance they manage to hold this one in a historically Liberal province.
15 08 12 Craig Hubley
Changing from Liberal to TCTC because PEI likes to have a seat in Cabinet. If the NDP will be appointing the cabinet, why not a PEI minister?
The NDP trend in Atlantic Canada shows no sign of slowing down, especially as Liberals on campaign lean right to promise to 'get the job done' on pipelines and oil drilling which people on Gulf of St. Lawrence fear very much. Like the Gulf of Mexico, the Gulf of St. Lawrence is vulnerable to an oil spill, and a 21-day start to cleanup is disastrous and could well destroy the tourism and fishery for good. Shea will take heat for that kind of decision, but she was never in the race for re-election anyway.
Not seeing the Greens as a factor here yet but the oil drilling issue may change that. The PEI Greens are surprisingly influential in the national party.
15 08 12 R.O.
Gail Shea first got elected in this riding in 2008 and increased her margin of victory in 2011. Its such a small and isolated riding , we can't really try and predict how it will vote based on east coast as a whole polls that may favour liberals or ndp. Being an incumbent is often helpful out east and mp's can hold ridings for longer periods of time as we have seen in the other pei ridings . well pei did elect a liberal government provincially there was still some ridings that went pc provincially so island is not entirely liberal. Well liberals or ndp may do better here I'd still say Gail Shea has an advantage .
15 08 09 A.S.
With both Shea and Dickieson running, could this wind up the nearest thing to a PEI federal 3-way since...forever?
15 08 07 Follow The Numbers
Apparently my post didn't come through here when I submitted it earlier. Anyway, this should still be a Liberal pickup. They are polling quite well in the Atlantic and the Conservatives have been delegated back to third place. Harper is deeply unpopular in PEI due to the EI cuts and I think the people of this riding will punish him by electing a Liberal over a cabinet minister. I don't think Shea can win unless the Liberals completely collapse like last time. I don't see that happening, so I'm calling this a Liberal pickup.
15 08 06 Stevo
Liberal pickup. I cannot see the Conservatives holding onto this seat short of a dramatic and unforeseen rise in NDP fortunes in PEI that pulls away large swaths of Liberal voters. Barring that, the province that should really only have one MP for the whole of the island (or at most two, and yes I know about the Constitutional constraints preventing a reduction in seat count) will return to its tradition of sending an all-Liberal delegation to Ottawa.
15 07 29 Monkey Cheese
Both the Liberals and the NDP have strong candidates, but I took a look at Threehundredeight which is saying that the Liberals are far enough to ahead and the NDP is far enough behind that vote splitting won't make much of a difference here. The Liberals should be able to pull this off and completely sweep PEI.
15 07 23 RJC
This is going to be interesting. Shea is the lone Tory MP from PEI and a cabinet minister (though a somewhat unimpressive one) and, unlike last time, both the Liberals and NDP are putting solid, established candidates up against her. My instinct is currently the same as an earlier poster - namely, that Morrissey and Dickieson will split the anti-Tory vote allowing Shea to pull through, but that could change if one or the other party seizes a solid lead nationally.
15 07 23 Prime Predictor
This will be a close one. However, Shea won this before 2011 when the CPC didn't do as well in the East Coast. I think as long as the Tories (better campaigners than Grits) hang around 30 percent Shea should just about hold this.
15 07 17 L.O.
Dickieson will draw down the Liberal vote. Shea, whose support is a fairly solid block, will benefit from serious vote splitting.
15 05 30 Craig Hubley
Calling this Liberal now that Peter MacKay has left. MacKay has sent a clear signal that if Maritimers want to see either federal or provincial conservatives in power ever again, they need to sit on their hands for Harper.
That signal is absolutely clear in Nova Scotia and its echoes in PEI will be strong enough to tip the balance against Shea, who as I noted earlier has been an exceptionally bad Cabinet minister and therefore a dangerous Harper hangover for the provincial PEI PCs to apologize for after the Harper era.
15 05 30 seasaw
I think Gail Shea will keep this seat for the CPC. Even if the CPC were to form a majority, this seat and a couple in New Brunswick will be their entire Atlantic caucus.
15 05 11 madcaper
This riding is also a very interesting riding to watch. The Liberals had been making gains on Gail Shea and it looked like it was going to be a 2 way dog fight and then along came the Provincial Election with gains by the Conservatives and Greens in seats and a tripling of their votes by the New Democrats and 1 very close race that went down to the last poll and another race that will make for an interesting race next time out. Then you have to consider Herb Dickerson and the New Democrats. Herb is very personally popular and with the fallout from Justin Trudeau voting with the Conservatives on Bill C-51(the Spy Bill as it is referred to in most circles)unclear on it's total impact on the Liberal Federal vote it could very well turn this race from a 2 way to a 3 way. Throw in where the Greens will take their vote from (and it is very likely to come from the Liberals and the Conservatives)and you can be safe in saying that this race is TCTC at this time
15 03 28 monkey
If an election were called today, I suspect the Liberals would easily take this. The only thing that might save Gail O'Shea is many on the Island like to have at least one member on the government benches so if the Tories start flirting with majority territory in October than they may have a shot, but otherwise looks like a Liberal pick up.
15 03 26 Carleton Student
A clear seat to watch right out of the gate on election night. The liberals have work ahead of them, but the conservatives are about to lose a lot of support on the east coast. I'd except Shea to fall, as even with their low numbers, New Brunswick has to be most of the support the CPC does have.
15 03 23 Brian A
This may well be the first time in my lifetime that one of the 'Ridings To Watch' in a federal election is on PEI. You have three very interesting stories happening here: 1) A Conservative incumbent - a CabMin to boot - that is coming from a party that is losing popularity nationwide, but especially in Atlantic Canada. In the maritimes, though, incumbents have an extra advantage as Atlantic Canadians never want to risk losing a body in a position of power from their limited number of seats. Shea isn't a high-profile MP, and she doesn't have a high-profile file, but she's a Minister. Will Islanders be willing to lose a Minister and then have Harper get re-elected? 2) PEI has a long-history of supporting the Liberal Party, and Egmont is no exception. Heck, during the Dion/Iggy years, PEI was one of the only parts of Canada where the LPC support GREW! So, tradition is on the side of the Liberal candidate. Then you have Liberal support up overall in Atlantic Canada, so the educated thought would be to see them win back Egmont. 3) You have Herb Dickieson running for the NDP. He is the former leader of the PEINDP, and the first - and to date ONLY - New Democrat to EVER win a seat in PEI. He's a popular guy, and I'm told he's running a strong and well-funded campaign. Not since Dolores 'Dody' Crane has the NDP had a candidate that actually has a chance to win in PEI. Right now, the odds seem to favour the Liberals, but this riding may actually be interesting!
15 03 18 Craig Hubley
It would be rare for PEI to throw out its only Conservative hold due to the usual Maritime hedging of wanting to remain represented in Cabinet.
However, Gail Shea has been an astonishingly bad Fisheries Minister, so bad that it's hard to imagine one worse.
'Lobster: the new bologna'. <-- You just can't make this stuff up folks.

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