Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Canada Federal Election - 2015

St. John’s South-Mount Pearl


Prediction Changed
2015-10-11 00:10:13
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Cleary, Ryan

Krol, Marek

McLean, Jackson

O'Regan, Seamus


Population/populations
(2011 census)

81944


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

936624.21%
1792446.33%
1110328.70%
2810.73%
Other 90.02%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant


   St. John's South-Mount Pearl
   (196/203 polls, 97.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Ryan Cleary
8669
17721
10710
271


   Avalon
   (7/203 polls, 3.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Scott Andrews
697
203
393
10
Other9



 


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15 10 15 Marco Ricci
99.241.63.7
Newfoundland & Labrador reporter Michael Connors posted the following poll today, showing O'Regan with a narrow lead, (but with 22% still undecided):
NTV/MQO Poll: SJS-MP
Decided and Leaning
O'Regan 39
Cleary 35
Krol 3
McLean 0
Undecided 22
Sample: 400
MOE: +/-4.9
https://twitter.com/MikeConnors/status/654756663753207808
15 10 15 Jeff S
24.186.30.74
New poll shows O'Regan up on Cleary 39-35 with 22% undecided. Probably Liberal, but I'm not ready to call it.
15 10 14 Craig Hubley
173.212.125.141
The prior Liberal predictions seem to be based on polling that isn't even specific to Newfoundland let alone St. John's. This kind of bullying is just what makes Newfs defy the tide, as they did by banishing Harper off the island years ago. With the NDP embattled, they will protect the core seats and the few possibly winnable campaigns. That means the incumbents plus the only possible gains: this seat, Fundy Royal and South Shore St. Margaret's. Wasting more time in Central Nova or Saint John -- Rothesay or claiming to have the lead there is simply screwing up NDP vote swaps. Swaps that are now needed to ensure there are no Cons in Atlantic Canada.
http://www.electionalmanac.com/ea/canada-election-polls-atlantic-canada/ show NDP and Green numbers now upticking somewhat as Con threat subsides. Liberal numbers are seemingly down, which I attribute to this fortress or consolidation effect. The collapsed Conservative vote in Atlantic Canada will not turn entirely to the Liberals due to old family rivalries, Green candidates that are specifically campaigning to old PCs, and NDP policies favoured by aging voters. So this riding will buck the trend and stay NDP.
15 10 13 SC
24.137.123.177
For the record, 'the Maritimes' and 'Atlantic Canada' are not synonymous terms. The Maritimes refer to Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island; Atlantic Canada refers to the Maritimes plus Newfoundland & Labrador. Using the two terms interchangeably is something people not from the region do.
Regardless, I agree on calling this one for the Liberals. Cleary seems to have a good reputation, but the Liberals held this before the 2011 implosion, and they're soaring in the Atlantic region.
15 10 10 Marco Ricci
99.241.63.7
The reason I said this riding was part of the 'Maritimes' is because it is part of Atlantic Canada. Would 'Atlantic' be a preferable word? That's the category it is listed under in all regional riding lists.
This riding has been a challenge for people to call, both for the seat projection sites and for journalists such as David Akin who have had it leaning NDP up until recently, but have said it might narrowly go Liberal instead.
Since we are entering the final week, I am now going to call it as Liberal based on the following factors:
1. After showing close numbers between the Liberals & NDP for the past 2 months, this riding has now entered the Liberal column firmly in the projections by both Eric Grenier (308) & Bryan Breguet (Too Close To Call).
2. Reports from Newfoundlanders on the ground are beginning to say that it looks like Seamus O'Regan, who was narrowly trailing Ryan Cleary early in the year, may be convincing locals that he is best-positioned to beat the Conservatives since Trudeau is now beating Mulcair nationally.
Cleary definitely has a base of support and a personal following since he was able to win here by a large margin in 2011, and only narrowly lost in 2008. However, the fact that the provincial & national numbers now favour the Liberals by a clear margin means that this race is now looking like 2008 again -- a narrow Liberal win over the NDP's Cleary.
15 10 10 Jack Cox
24.226.65.140
I can't see Cleary holding on, the NDP are going to be down to three seats in the Atlantic region, The Liberals have such a wide lead in the atlantic that even personal popularity might not save even their best MPs.
15 10 07 Craig Hubley
71.7.138.94
First, the opinion of anyone who thinks Newfoundland is in 'the Maritimes' is not worth considering. There are claims that NDP support in NL is fast rising as it becomes obvious the Conservatives are not returning and there is a need for a few Opposition MPs so NL is not just taken for granted by Ottawa. However, this is the only NDP prospect for any actual seat, it's an incumbent and a popular one, and many people in the outports that like the NDP will be voting Liberal and asking their friends and family in the city to keep the NDP going on their behalf. So I think this one bucks the trend and stays NDP. I'm slightly more sure of that than of Megan Leslie!
15 10 06 Marco Ricci
99.241.63.7
With declining NDP support, the only question here is whether Ryan Cleary's personal popularity is enough to survive the NDP decline.
308 & Too Close To Call both show St. John's South-Mount Pearl falling into the Liberal column.
Would be interesting to see a final riding poll for this area between O'Reagan and Cleary.
15 10 02 Marco Ricci
99.241.63.7
According to the latest polling, the Liberal lead has grown in the Maritimes over the course of the campaign, and the NDP numbers have dropped off. (In fact, today's Nanos shows the NDP falling behind CPC in the Atlantic region).
This riding may come down to the local strength & popularity of the candidates, but right now the higher Trudeau numbers nationally and the decreasing Mulcair numbers give Seamus O'Reagan a better chance of winning over Ryan Cleary than he had going into the Summer. May now be leaning Liberal.
Nanos - Atlantic
LPC - 53.7
CPC - 22.2
NDP - 19.4
http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/20151001%20Ballot%20TrackingE.pdf
15 10 01 Craig Hubley
96.30.183.66
OK, Trudeau did not slip in the region and in fact his debate performance was not on average worse than Mulcair's, so I got that wrong. Moving his party to the left of the NDP on deficits and investing in human capital and infrastructure was a wise move too especially from Atlantic voters' perspective.
However that also means that the NDP are going to focus on this riding alone as their only good prospect in Newfoundland and one of perhaps a half dozen in Atlantic Canada. Don't underestimate the power of donors, volunteers and vote swaps focused on just one riding in an entire province. Anyone who believes in proportional representation should be a pretty easy sell to vote NDP here as the NDP clearly deserves more than one seat. And with the collapse of the Conservatives in the province, the lack of a Conservative threat liberates those progressive Liberal votes to actually materialize for the NDP. Though, of course, that means also that Conservatives vote Liberal to block the NDP, so that's a two edged sword.
This one will be too close to call until election night due to these very unpredictable factors.
15 09 21 Monkey Cheese
99.242.194.247
Marco, it appears that the Conservatives have finally found a candidate, Merek Kroll, from a reality TV show I've never heard of. Based on the article it sounds like he's from Ontario and is being parachuted into the riding. I agree with your assessment. This is very late into the game and I don't think this candidate is going to inspire too many people. I think more conservatives would vote Liberal rather than NDP, which could give O'Regan the edge. TCTC until we get a specific riding poll, but I'm positive that it won't be the Conservatives who get in here.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/conservatives-to-run-reality-tv-personality-in-st-john-s-south-mount-pearl-1.3237376
15 09 04 Marco Ricci
99.241.63.7
One factor that may help the Liberals here is that there is still no Conservative candidate. One will eventually be appointed, but CPC will be weaker here than in 2011.
One of the reasons that Liberal Siobhan Coady lost in 2011 was that she lost support to not just Ryan Cleary of the NDP, but also to the Conservatives.
This year some of that Conservative vote may go back to the Liberals since CPC will probably be running a paper candidate at this late stage.
15 09 01 Tony
71.7.250.207
Cleary holds on here, this will be close though but don't think O'regan's name will carry him to victory here.
15 09 01 Marco Ricci
99.241.63.7
Latest polls show NDP support leveling off, and Liberal support rising. The Liberals have a substantial lead in Atlantic Canada according to the latest polls, with the NDP 2nd, and the CPC way down in 3rd. The Liberal lead may be even larger in Newfoundland, so the Liberals could be competitive in this seat.
Late August Abacus numbers for Atlantic: LPC 47, NDP 31, CPC 19
Late August EKOS numbers for Atlantic: LPC 45, NDP 34, CPC 14
As Abacus reported yesterday, NDP support has dropped 5 points in the Atlantic region since their previous poll:
http://abacusdata.ca/race-narrows-as-ndp-support-dips/
I think we need more local data from the riding itself to tell now who has the edge. A riding poll would be useful.
15 08 22 Sam
99.234.100.151
Seamus will take this riding, it may be close but his name will carry him. Also need to factor that the conservatives are bleeding support in AC and most particularly NFLD. Many of the riding conservatives would rather for Liberal than NDP.
15 08 24 PHYSASTR Master
24.86.207.206
A lot has changed since a few posts cast doubt on an NDP win here. Since then, the NDP has surged to first place in the maritimes according to 308's polling aggregate, with the NDP winning here at 82% certainty. Time to put it back in the NDP fold, it would take a massive shift to make this interesting.
15 08 17 Canadian Election Atlas
66.46.74.139
The NDP is recovering its support in Atlantic Canada, and that is mostly coming outside of Nova Scotia, where their brand is still hurting. The NDP should be able to keep their two seats in St. John's fairly easily.
Cleary has not been the best MP from what I have heard, but with the NDP polling better now, he should still be able to keep this seat. St. John's is historically a Tory city, but with Harper being so loathed in Newfoundland, the anti-Liberal vote will continue to back the New Democrats.
15 08 12 Craig Hubley
96.30.183.72
Though 308 calls this one a squeaker, with only 53% chance of NDP win, I think the momentum is still with the NDP in Atlantic Canada as a whole, and that Trudeau will only lose support through poor debate performance. Only my opinion and local voices seem to differ so I'll drop back to TCTC.
Still an ABC riding though. The remaining Conservatives in this riding may shift Liberal out of desperation hoping Trudeau will back Harper in a hung parliament. That's probably the only impact they'd have in October.
15 08 10 Marco Ricci
99.241.63.7
I'm curious as to why this riding has already been called for the NDP. I predicted below that Cleary would probably be strong and might hold on here, but with the election 2.5 months away, it's a little early to actually call it until we get some data closer to the month of October.
One thing we are seeing this year is that it's risky to predict election calls in advance because so much keeps changing. There should probably be a lot of ridings left as TCTC until we are closer to the Fall.
15 07 17 L.O.
184.151.246.158
This one will be close. O'Reagans are a well known and respected family in St. John's, but Cleary has built quite a presence. This riding's longer history is Tory. This will be one to watch!
15 06 11 Mr. Dave
24.142.45.16
Liberal support has been steadily declining while NDP support has been steadily increasing over the past few months.
Ryan Cleary will have a battle on his hands, but will keep this seat NDP Orange!
15 05 16 Gillian
173.206.227.204
Ryan Cleary is a popular and well-liked MP. He will withstand the candidacy of Seamus.
15 03 26 A.S.
99.233.23.228
Yeah, I was figuring the 'O'Regan factor' would be raised here--he's so much the Justin Liberal 'dream candidate' for the urban heart of The Rock, it's insufferable. Needless to say, that 'insufferability' (much like that of his leader) will either make or break him--and I agree that the nature of his media achievements run the risk of giving him an ironic parachute stigma around these parts; Newfies like a bit more non-mainland 'bite' in their homegrown media heroes. So while the polls currently suggest an all-encompassing Newfie Liberal blowout that'll drag Seamus in with all the rest, I'll still allow time for all to sort out.
15 03 25 Marco Ricci
99.241.63.7
I don't think one can say that Cleary is 'toast' yet. There was actually a riding poll done by Abacus last month that showed Cleary ahead of O'Regan on the question of who would be the best local representative. The fact that O'Regan was away from Newfoundland for several years in Toronto during his CTV career could be an issue with some voters. Cleary is a strong candidate who beat Liberal MP Siobhan Coady by a large margin in 2011, and came close to beating her in 2008. However, obviously the fact that the Liberals have a large lead on the NDP in Newfoundland right now means that the Liberals have a chance to take this seat back. O'Regan is also a personal friend of Justin Trudeau and will presumably get a visit from him during the election. So it will be a closer race for Cleary than 2011, but we have to wait till later in the year to call a winner here.
15 03 24 JC
66.207.216.130
A Red tide will wash over the Atlantic and sweep away most incumbents that aren't Liberal. O'Regan is such a huge name it's hard to imagine him losing this.
15 03 22 Dr. Bear
66.49.210.99
I too agree that the NDP are 'toast' in this riding. The rising tide is red, not orange this election-prediction-go-round. Stellar support in the Atlantic provinces for the grits and a star candidate will make this riding a Liberal pick up.
15 03 20 Fairview Resident
184.69.69.86
Craig's comment that St. John's is NDP territory would have been true 4 years ago, that Newfoundlanders' have reservations about the Liberals is pure projection and that they will hedge their bets I can only assume is wishful thinking. The NDP won 32% federally and 25% provincially in 2011 – both best-ever results. They are now polling about 19% federally and around 10% provincially, while the Liberals have majority support both provincially and federally. With these numbers, Jack Harris could hold on but Ryan Cleary is toast. The NDP have a lot of catching up to do in NL before they have a chance here. For now, this riding is Liberal.
15 03 18 Craig Hubley
76.11.94.51
Calling this for the incumbent. St. John's is becoming like Halifax, solid NDP territory.
With the federal Conservatives collapsed, Newfoundlanders are concerned not to be taken for granted by the Liberal Party of Canada and therefore neglected. Keeping a couple of NDP incumbents in, helps serve that very canny political purpose.
NDP will fight like mad to hold these seats and their campaigns are very efficient in urban areas.



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