Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Long Range Mountains

Prediction Changed
2015-03-19 18:18:37

Constituency Profile


Babstock, Devon

Cormier, Terry

Hutchings, Gudie

Ruth, Wayne

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 2580.72%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Humber-St. Barbe-Baie Verte
   (179/276 polls, 65.86% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Gerry Byrne

   Random-Burin-St. George's
   (97/276 polls, 34.14% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Judy Foote


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15 09 13 Marco Ricci
There weren't any major controversies over the Liberal nomination. The ballots took a long time to tabulate, and the winning candidate was backed by outgoing Liberal MP Gerry Byrne, but except within the two camps, there wasn't much that would effect the general public.
This riding is currently projected to go Liberal with a 99% chance, so it's hard to find a more secure-looking Liberal riding than this one. Something very unusual would have to happen for the Liberals to lose here.
15 09 13 A.S.
As befits the Grits' record 2011 result, autopilot even as an open seat unless an Orange Super-Crush hits Newfoundland. But who knows with assumed safety; the PCs *nearly* took it in 1997.
15 09 01 Tony
Lots of controversy here over the Liberal nomination, NDP have a decent candidate here as well and even the CPC could have a substance candidate. That said I think the Liberals will win here. They held it in 1984 during the Mulroney sweep so they can hold it now.
15 03 28 monkey
Easy Liberal win as they would have gotten over 50% of the popular vote in 2011 when they were doing much worse nationally. Even if they lose nationally, this should still be an easy win.
15 03 22 Dr. Bear
I think this was the riding the Liberals won with the largest margin in 2011. True, some of that support was for the incumbent who isn't running again, but the Liberals are holding strong and true in Newfoundland. Solid Liberal hold.
15 03 18 Craig Hubley
Hard to imagine this seat being lost given Trudeau's popularity in Atlantic Canada. Unless Jack Harris manages to lead an NDP sweep with much higher quality candidates than Newfoundland NDP has ever seen, this stays Liberal.

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Canada Federal Election - 2015
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