Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Coast of Bays-Central-Notre Dame

Prediction Changed
2015-03-19 18:18:24

Constituency Profile


Menchenton, Claudette

O'Brien, Kevin George

Perry, Elizabeth

Simms, Scott

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 740.26%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Bonavista-Gander-Grand Falls-Windsor
   (149/228 polls, 72.93% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Scott Simms

   Humber-St. Barbe-Baie Verte
   (48/228 polls, 17.77% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Gerry Byrne

   Random-Burin-St. George's
   (31/228 polls, 9.30% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Judy Foote


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15 10 02 R.O.
This riding has been redistributed a fair bit from 2011 and includes parts of 3 liberal ridings. Scott Simms is the mp and represented the area since 2004. The conservatives do have a higher profile candidate here than other Newfoundland ridings as Kevin O'brien has extensive provincial experience as an mha from 2003-2015 and served in cabinet . he decided to run federally instead of provincially this year . although the liberals appear to have an advantage here based on past history its one of those ridings that is likely to be closer as both main parties have strong candidates this year.
15 09 13 A.S.
If you want the apogee of provincial PC heavyweights flopping federally, just go back to 1993 where, in the predecessor riding of Gander-Grand Falls, former Premier Tom Rideout got less than 20% and barely more than a quarter of the vote of Grit incumbent George Baker. (Of course, it was the federal PCs in 1993--but, still.)
15 09 02 Monkey Cheese
It's always funny when Conservative partisans think that the Conservatives will take away seats from the Liberals in the Atlantic, especially in Newfoundland and Labrador. Danny Williams practically ensured that this province won't elect another one for a long time to come. CoB-CND is a particular Liberal stronghold and the flip-flopper Kevin O'Brien isn't going to change that.
15 09 01 Tony
Call me crazy but I think O'brien can win this. Seems to be visible in this riding. Will be close but I think he pulls it off.
15 08 11 Marco Ricci
I agree that it's unlikely the Conservatives are going to win a riding in Newfoundland in this election. The Conservatives are behind in this province at both the Federal & the Provincial level. Even in 2011, when the Harper Conservatives were higher in support, they still didn't come close in ridings like this.
While it's true in theory that Kevin O'Brien is a 'heavyweight candidate', that was also the case in 2011 for Trevor Taylor & John Ottenheimer. Taylor & Ottenheimer were both former PC ministers and the CPC ran them against Gerry Byrne & Judy Foote, but they both lost by large margins. The same fate could await Kevin O'Brien.
15 08 07 Follow the Numbers
The idea of a Conservative winning here is laughable especially when this is one of the strongest Liberal seats in the country. This part of Newfoundland is solid Liberal territory. O'Brien comes across as an opportunist and a flip-flopper. He once criticised Harper and now is running for him. The Liberals are set for a majority in Newfoundland federally and provincially. It's generally not a smart business move to jump from one sinking ship to another.
15 07 23 RJC
I have to disagree with the poster 'L.O.' This seat was notionally Liberal by 25 points in 2011 and was one of only two ridings to give more than 50% support to the Liberals in that election. And this really is not going to be the kind of election where the Tories pick up seats in places like Newfoundland. Furthermore, until recently, Tory candidate O'Brien was part of a now-unpopular provincial PC government that is likely to get its clock cleaned in a few months' time. Simms is also a longtime and well-entrenched incumbent MP. A vote for any candidate other than Simms would be a real shock.
15 07 17 L.O.
Conservatives have a heavyweight candidate in this riding. Kevin O'Brien has represented Gander in the House of Assembly for more than a decade. As one of the more senior provincial Tory cabinet ministers, he has a significant following all over the province. Also, the central NL riding changed in the Tories' favour. Among the ‎changes - the riding lost the largely traditionally Liberal Bonavista area and gained a traditionally Tory area (Green Bay & Baie Verte).
15 03 28 monkey
One of only two ridings nationally where the Liberals got over 50% in 2011. Considering they will likely do better in 2015 even if they lose nationally, this should be an easy win.
15 03 18 Craig Hubley
I am predicting all three Liberal incumbent MPs in Newfoundland and Labrador to stay. All three are journalists and know how to campaign.
And what not to say.
Scott Sims has a high profile as critic for Fisheries (a busy job given Gail Shea's abysmal comical non-peformance) and like Judy Foote gained a bit from redistribution and will be able to help either her or Yvonne Jones if they get into trouble, and especially held Gudrid Hutchings hang on to Long Range Mountains for the Liberals (by far the most doubtful hold). None of them however is going to make much of a dent in the NDP in St. John's.

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