Election Prediction Project
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Canada Federal Election - 2015

Bonavista-Burin-Trinity


Prediction Changed
2015-03-19 18:18:19
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Brown, Jenn

Colbourne, Tyler John

Foote, Judy M.

Windsor, Mike


Population/populations
(2011 census)

76704


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

941230.50%
430213.94%
1680654.46%
2710.88%
Other 660.21%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant


   Random-Burin-St. George's
   (109/270 polls, 41.75% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Judy Foote
3998
1762
6858
114


   Bonavista-Gander-Grand Falls-Windsor
   (97/270 polls, 36.22% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Scott Simms
2702
1446
5578
102


   Avalon
   (64/270 polls, 22.03% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Scott Andrews
2712
1094
4370
55
Other66



 


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15 10 02 R.O.
24.146.23.226
This appears to be a riding that liberal mp Judy Foote will hold rather easily as she has been mp since 2008 . It doesn't appear ndp or conservatives are targeting this riding .
15 09 16 Monkey Cheese
99.242.194.247
The Conservatives dropped their candidate, Blair Dale, after his offensive comments surfaced online about women, abortion, and racial minorities.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-election-2015-blair-dale-newfoundland-cpc-1.3229260
The Conservatives never had a chance here anyway and they would probably save a bit of cash by not bothering to find a replacement, but this all but solidifies the Liberal's hold on this riding.
15 09 15 Marco Ricci
99.241.63.7
Conservative candidate Blair Dale has been dropped after controversial remarks about women & abortion surfaced online:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-election-2015-blair-dale-newfoundland-cpc-1.3229260
15 09 01 Tony
71.7.250.207
The Liberals and Judy Foote hold on here. My home riding, thus far she's the only candidate who's visible.
15 07 17 L.O.
184.151.246.158
Redistribution saw this riding created. It includes the most Liberal part of the old central riding (Bonavista area) and the most Liberal part of the Avalon riding (Bellevue). Easy grit hold.
15 05 24 A.S.
99.233.100.50
The 'West Country England' comparison's ironic in light of the recent total parliamentary wipeout of the Lib Dems in their onetime stronghold--however, it's hard to see Justin 'Clegging' the Liberals' chances hereabouts, not least with their provincial counterparts leading in the polls.
15 04 29 Docere
50.101.245.47
This is the Canadian equivalent of West Country England - Liberal stronghold.
15 03 28 monkey
174.114.31.13
One of only two ridings nationally where the Liberals got over 50% in 2011. Considering they will likely do better in 2015 even if they lose nationally, this should be an easy win.
15 03 18 Craig Hubley
76.11.94.51
I am predicting all three Liberal incumbent MPs in Newfoundland and Labrador to stay. All three are journalists and know how to campaign.
And what not to say.
Judy Foote gained a bit from redistribution and will be able to help either of Yvonne Jones or Scott Sims if they get into trouble. None of them however is going to make much of a dent in the NDP in St. John's.



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