Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2014

Timmins-James Bay

Prediction Changed
2013-02-10 14:58:00

Constituency Profile


Bisson, Gilles

Black, Steve

Fontaine, Sylvie

Hrycyna, Bozena

Sadiq, Fauzia

Gilles Bisson


  • Pundits’ Guide – Ontario (Timmins-James Bay)
  • 2011 Provincial Election Prediction
  • 2011 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2008 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2007 Provincial Election Prediction

    2011 Result:

    2007 Result:

    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    14 06 11 A.S.
    Gilles Bisson rules an empire of his own, and the voting patters he's faced have been idiosyncratic: from a 1990 freshman replacing maverick PC Allan Pope, to the only ONDP majorities in 1995 and 1999, to a mild scare from McGuinty's coattails in 2003, and then the strange Al Spacek strategic phenomenon in 2011--from PC representation to bottom of the PC heap and almost back again within a generation! But it must be said that the Spacek factor really messed up 2014-model election projectioneering, making TJB look more in PC danger than it probably really is. Since Steve Black is no Al Spacek, and w/Hudak's debate no-show taken into account, it now looks more like a 'safe' than a 'scare' election for Bisson (and maybe, given Wynne's debate performance, more of a race for second?)
    14 06 05 NJam101
    I stand by what I wrote over a year ago. Bisson will do well in all of the communities including Timmins. Looking at lawn signs, Bisson has WAY more signs than Black in Timmins. Black seems to appeal to the high income households and those who own businesses. Bisson appeals to many working in mining and public sector employees.
    Black won't do well in many towns for example Kapuskasing and Hearst because he doesn't speak French. And aboriginal voters don't normally vote PC when looking at past results for the coastal communities. Black may be a Timmins city councillor but it won't help against Bisson. Bisson is much better known and liked. And Black isn't known at all in other places. Black has only lived in Timmins for about 6 years and moved from Southern Ontario. He often stumbles on Northern issues because he really doesn't know the culture and lifestyle here. And PC leader Hudak didn't even show up at the leaders debate for Northern Ontario. Not exactly a winning formula.
    My prediction:
    Bisson 52%
    Black 36%
    Fontaine 10%
    Other 2%
    14 06 03 Dave
    My mom told me she voted PC. May not seem like much in a single statement but given her age and lifetime support for ndp and that she says her friends are doing the same I think this will be closer than anyone thinks. Edge to PCs as people are very angry after ONTC and issues with parks and talking about change.
    14 05 19 nesooite
    Bisson's strong francophone presence will be difference here. PC candidate will be strong in Timmins but will have difficulty in attracting votes with large francophone population in the riding.
    14 05 18 Jeff316
    The PCs have been doing well in the north, although they're not winning anything provincially yet. Much like Rainy River, PC vote increased almost 30 percent from 2011 to 2014. The NDP's recent support of the Liberals (who have overseen the collapse of almost every northern industry) is not going over well. The Liberal vote has merged with the Tories to become an Anti-NDP vote. The PCs have changed track from the last election and Steve is going hard on Gilles personally - something that's almost never done, and Spacek never did, because Gilles is universally recognized as a good guy. Gilles will probably hold it. But this will be closer than last election and it may come down to the fact the PCs picked an anglophone. I wouldn't bet on a win for Bisson and if this changes hands this time you've read it here first.
    14 05 04 monkey
    Last time around the Liberals ran a paper candidate and encouraged their supporters to unite behind the PCs and still couldn't take down Gilles Bisson so its really only a matter of does he get over 50% or not.
    13 07 28 northerner
    Gilles Bisson can't attract flies with his all union haul all the time. That being said...he doesn't have to. While the PC candidate did take a good run at him last time..the demographics are all wrong in this riding for a PC pickup. Too many french..natives and union people to get the message resonating. The liberal vote has folded like a cheap lawn chair over the past decade...and they are a non factor now. NDP hold....by a large margin.
    13 04 28 NJam101
    Timmins city councillor Steve Black has been nominated as the Conservative candidate. I don't feel Black will do quite as well as Spacek did in 2011 but he will likely come in second which is still an accomplishment in itself in a left leaning region. Black doesn't speak French and is running in a riding where there are more francophones than anglophones! Good luck to him while campaigning in Hearst, Kapuskasing, Smooth Rock Falls and all of the towns in between! There is also a large first nations population that normally votes either NDP or Liberal. So again, good luck campaigning in Attawapiskat, Moosonee, Peawanuck and other coastal communities. And of course even Timmins is just over 40% francophone (vast majority are bilingual though) and about 10% aboriginal.
    Gilles Bisson has been our MPP since 1990. I have said before that this electoral district is his until he retires and I stick with that.
    13 04 18 Chris
    Last time around the Liberals and Tories teamed up and ran a paper candidate (Liberals) against Bisson (NDP) and Spacek (CON). This resulted in the Liberal voters abandoning their party and plumping for the Conservatives. In effect those who voted Liberal in the prior election switched to Conservative for this one but it was still not enough to defeat Bisson who took 50% of the vote. A shady trick and certainly a desperate one that failed miserably.
    13 02 05 Hutch
    Although the Al Spacek brought the PCs closer to victory than they've been in 20 years, this seat remains safely in the hands of MPP Gilles Bisson. Barring some major misstep on the part of the NDP, that is not likely to change until he retires.

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