Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2014

Timiskaming-Cochrane


Prediction Changed
2013-03-07 22:41:00
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Chitaroni, Gino

Fraser, Cody

Goyer, Sebastien

Politis, Peter

Vanthof, John

Incumbent:
John Vanthof

Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide – Ontario (Timiskaming-Cochrane)
  • 2011 Provincial Election Prediction
  • 2011 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2008 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2007 Provincial Election Prediction


    2011 Result:

    JOHN VANTHOF
    1263350.12%
    DENIS BONIN
    653225.92%
    RANDY AULBROOK
    533721.17%
    GERRY COURVILLE
    3911.55%
    TINA DANESE
    3121.24%
    2007 Result:
    * DAVID RAMSAY
    11,58842.90%
    JOHN VANTHOF
    10,95440.55%
    DOUG SHEARER
    3,65913.55%
    PATRICK EAST
    8113.00%

    2003 Result (redistributed):

    1849959.12%
    633020.23%
    574118.34%


  •  


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    14 06 11 A.S.
    99.231.139.81
    David Ramsay's retirement basically handed Tim-Coc to Vanthof; hard to see it switching or coming close short of the opposition galvanizing itself around one candidate a la TJB in 2011. Though it's interesting w/all the EPP talk that year about the PCs contending here; yet they were still third to the Liberals. But Vanthof had half the vote; and as long as Charlie Angus troubadors the locals, it won't be falling--at least, until/unless the seat's distributed out of existence, just as it was federally...
    14 06 05 NJam101
    63.135.17.148
    John Vanthof will be re-elected and it won't be close. He has been well liked and voters won't care even if the Horwath NDP campaigning has been weak this time. I wouldn't at all be surprised if his support increases over last time. I'm betting that PC support will rise a bit because of Politis being mayor of Cochrane and him often being in the media but it still won't be enough to make it close. I feel that the Liberal candidate won't do very well. Many traditional liberals will likely vote NDP here this time.
    14 05 19 nesooite
    173.76.174.83
    Likely NDP hold. Only reason Liberals held before was that Ramsey was very similar to an NDP rep. In fact he was one before he crossed the floor.
    14 05 18 Jeff316
    69.196.138.207
    Like his caucus-mate to the northeast, Vanthof is near-universally applauded as a solid guy and this will be a big factor in his win. The Conservatives have a based in Temiskaming but there are too many Liberal voters that can't stomach either other option. This should stay NDP, even if their vote (and results) collapse.
    14 05 04 monkey
    174.114.16.226
    The Liberals planned wind down of the ONTC was very unpopular here and while mostly cancelled they still plan to sell Ontera which is quite unpopular in this area to Bell Aliant who would then hold a monopoly. North Bay is in many ways the dividing line between the PCs in the rural Southern Ontario and the NDP in rural Northern Ontario so this area with its strong blue collar and large Francophone community should go NDP.
    14 05 11 Temiskaming Guy
    47.55.22.59
    John is very easy to approach and is very well liked. He also benefits from the strong federal machine of Charlie Angus in the north part of the riding. The competition is weak as well. There is no doubt about the outcome here.
    14 05 05 R.O.
    24.146.23.226
    Likely ndp hold , it was liberal for a long time . but ndp seems to have found a good mpp for riding and its likely due to incumbent advantage in northern Ontario they would hold the seat .
    13 03 06 northerner
    76.67.27.218
    50% last time for the NDP. I am willing to bet that they get to 60% this time. NDP win here for sure. No contest.
    13 03 01 JB
    216.211.114.48
    In 2007, Vanthof lost by 634 votes to a former cabinet minister. In 2011, the Liberal vote completely collapsed in favour of the NDP. This is not going to change anytime soon. NDP hold.



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