Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2014

Thunder Bay-Superior North

Prediction Changed
2014-06-06 08:19:00

Constituency Profile


Foulds, Andrew

Gravelle, Michael

Johnson, Tamara

LeBlanc, Joseph

Parks, Derek

Sloan, Paul

Michael Gravelle


  • Pundits’ Guide – Ontario (Thunder Bay-Superior North)
  • 2011 Provincial Election Prediction
  • 2011 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2008 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2007 Provincial Election Prediction

    2011 Result:

    2007 Result:

    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    14 06 05 Marco Ricci
    Gravelle beat Jim Foulds (a relative of Andrew Foulds) back in the 2007 election, so the Foulds name by itself might not be enough for the NDP to win here. It depends on the provincial trends, too. The NDP appears to be doing well in Northern Ontario, but Wynne's appearance at the Northern Leaders Debate seems to have her in better shape in the North than when Dalton McGunity made the mistake of skipping it in 2011. This time it's Hudak who seems to have lost ground in the North for skipping the debate.
    14 06 05 NJam101
    At the beginning of the election campaign I thought this was a riding that would definitely go to the NDP. But then I got word that Gravelle still has a strong base of supporters who haven't abandoned him like what has happened to many liberals elsewhere in Northern Ontario. Gravelle is a cabinet minister who is much more popular in Northern Ontario than his government. Many will support Gravelle because of who he is rather than what party he belongs to. And if the Liberals do win again then having a cabinet minister will be a big advantage.
    I have heard about Andrew Foulds from some friends in T-Bay and it sounds as though he is a very impressive candidate and is a city councillor. I'm told he will do extremely well in the towns in the riding. But Thunder Bay has most of the population and it will be interesting to see the outcome. I'm pretty sure that it will be VERY close this time. Either Gravelle or Foulds could win.
    I'm predicting a Gravelle win because he managed to get 45% of the votes last time in a very tough election. I don't see him gaining support but I don't think he'll lose much and will still have enough to win but just barely. I'm betting he and Foulds will each get just over 40% of the votes. Parks probably won't do a whole lot better than the PC candidate last time.
    14 05 29 Wes Fudge
    I had the chance to drive through a very large chunk of the rural part of this riding over the past 3 days. Foulds is DESTROYING Gravelle in terms of private property lawn sings (4 to 1) in Nipigon, Geraldton and Longlac...and pretty much everywhere in between. I did not get into Thunder Bay proper to see what that looks like. Safe to say that Foulds is going to take the rural polls....and as usual this one will be decided based on the NDP performance in the eastern 'burbs of Thunder Bay.
    14 05 28 A.S.
    Here, again, polling suggestions of a Liberal landslide vs spawn-of-Foulds. And Gravelle's got a sturdier base than Mauro; and unlike next door, the federal riding counterpart *doesn't* have an NDP incumbent (even if he was elected as one). But things are still so weirdly fluid that I'll hedge...
    14 05 20 P
    I think that this riding is very much competitive and in the pick up column for the NDP. Gravelle has been the MPP for nearly 20 years and you'd think with that length of time the place would be solidly red - that's not the case. Foulds is running on a strong record as a city council for the Current River District as well as the highly regarded nature of his name - his father being the former MPP for Thunder Bay in the 1970s and 1980s. This is going to be close.
    14 05 19 nesooite
    Likely to stay Liberal as Gravelle is pretty popular. This plus this being a large riding geographically will make it hard for the NDP to be organized enough to overcome Gravelle's incumbency. This plus the PCs are a non factor here.
    13 03 15 kingstonstudent
    The NDP's new nominee, Andrew Foulds, seems to be a much stronger candidate than their 2011 standard-bearer. Combined with an overall NDP uptick and fatigue with the government, Foulds should be able to pick up the seat. That said, the 2011 results proved that Gravelle won't go down without a fight. Narrow NDP win.
    13 03 01 JB
    Even as an NDP'er, I must say that this is more of a Gravelle riding, as opposed to a Liberal one. He has a strong core of supporters that can get out to vote.
    As a cabinet minister in government, he has brought numerous jobs to this region, especially in highway construction, and now once again he's overseeing the
    13 02 14 northerner
    The slightly safer of the two Thunder Bay seats for the libs. That being said... its not really safe at all. As I said in my post for Thunder Bay-Atikokan, the liberals are really struggling in the north. The PC's won't win this, but they will do a fair bit better than last time. This will bleed the liberal vote enough for the NDP to take it. NDP...but not by much.

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