Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2014

Thunder Bay-Atikokan

Prediction Changed
2014-06-11 19:10:00

Constituency Profile


Deibel, Edward

Kozorys, Mary

Mauro, Bill

Northey, John

Talarico, Joe

Wilson, Harold

Bill Mauro


  • Pundits’ Guide – Ontario (Thunder Bay-Atikokan)
  • 2011 Provincial Election Prediction
  • 2011 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2008 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2007 Provincial Election Prediction

    2011 Result:

    2007 Result:

    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    14 06 09 therealbatman
    Mauro won by less than 1000 votes in 2011, so this should be a NDP pick up.
    14 06 09 NJam101
    Nicolas, I agree with you about that poll not really telling the real story. It had a sample of only 380 people so there is a rather large margin of error. I just can't see the NDP getting less than 30% here even if the party and candidate haven't had a great campaign.
    This riding isn't too close to call anymore. The NDP and PC candidates don't have a chance. The NDP campaign has been weak and PC leader Hudak didn't even show up at the debate in T-Bay. It will be Liberal with Bill Mauro winning probably 40% of the votes. The PC candidate will do better than the last time but will come in third. Kozorys will not do as well as last time. My prediction: Mauro 40%, Kozorys 33% Wilson 25%
    14 06 08 Nicholas
    Wow, saw the Forum poll numbers and I just had to laugh. There is absolutely no way those numbers are correct. They had to have polled a disproportionate section of the electorate. The PC's at 30% and the NDP at 19% - are you kidding me? I realize that the NDP candidate didn't perform very well during the riding debate but even since then I have only seen the NDP gaining momentum. Many more signs have gone up for Mary Kozorys than any other candidate in the past week. We'll see what happens on election day as I believe Forum is way off the mark.
    14 06 07 Ryan
    Mauro will win this seat at a larger margin than last time. His Northwood neighbourhood in TBay is heavily favouring him in terms of signage on private property, and in past elections, his team has proven that they're overall better at getting out the vote. There are a lot of NDP signs, but they're reluctant to successfully bring out those numbers on election day when it counts.
    It's inevitable that there will be a Liberal government of some sort, and Thunder Bay voters will rather choose to elect somebody on the inside, as opposed to a 3rd party rep.
    14 06 07 Toronto Star/Forum Poll
    Thunder Bay-Atikokan (polled Sunday, 380 people, accurate to within 5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20) Liberal Bill Mauro 38 per cent, Progressive Conservative Harold Wilson 30 per cent, New Democrat Mary Kozorys 19 per cent, Green John Northey 9 per cent.
    14 06 05 Nicholas
    I completed a sign count here in Atikokan and the results are NDP - 97, Lib - 42, Con - 5. The battle seems to be much more even in the Thunder Bay portion of the riding. I agree that the NDP will win in most rural parts of the riding but Thunder Bay is where it will be decided and I'm not so sure of the outcome anymore.
    14 06 05 NJam101
    A Forum Research poll has shown that Mauro will win big but I'm betting it will be pretty close between him and Kozorys. I give Mauro the edge and feel that it won't be much different from 2011. If he could win last time then I'm pretty sure he will again.
    Thunder Bay voters will be the ones who decide the outcome. The towns in the riding will likely vote NDP but T-Bay will be more Liberal.
    14 06 04 An Interested Party
    Not even close this time. Debates have come and gone and with the NDP candidate once again looking like a lame duck, this one is down to a fight for second place. Tim's promise to cut a lot of service jobs has big impact here, and not attending the debate was seen as a huge turn-off to an already GTA-centered campaign.
    It's the Liberal's to lose, if for no other reason than an 'Anybody but Hudak' mentality scaring leftist swing voters Liberal, the incumbent moving into a cabinet position and (in Atikokan at least) lots of good news of late, there's little reason to change course.
    Not sure what the aforementioned poster saw for sign count, I'd be shocked if it was even 1:1; if anything it is more Liberal on private land. Local newspapers should have sign counts up soon to confirm.
    14 05 28 A.S.
    Take it with a grain of salt for now, but I noticed a poll where Mauro soared back to to the Lyn McLeod-era stratosphere and the NDP were battling PC for a distant second. (I'll still withold turning that into a prediction--but if that comes to pass, such is what happens when, unlike last time, a Liberal premier actually *doesn't* snub the North.)
    14 05 22 Nicholas
    Living in Atikokan, I can tell you that the NDP candidate is winning the sign war by far here. They outnumber the Liberal signs 2:1 at least and there are only 2 Conservative signs in town. Unfortunately, the riding will not be decided here, as Thunder Bay has many more eligible voters. From what I've heard, there are many more Conservative signs there. I am traveling there this weekend so I'll be able to see for myself. However, I am cautiously optimistic that the NDP can take the riding this time.
    14 05 22 Alice
    Liberals will win here. Might be closer than they'll like but I think they're going to do well in the North and this is one of the ridings they need for that to happen.
    14 05 19 nesooite
    Another key riding that the Liberals must hold. Liberal success depend upon winning urban ridings, even in the North. This means 2 Thunder Bay ridings, SSM and Sudbury. Lord knows. They have pumped a lot of money in these ridings. Unlike SSM, the NDP is not as strong historically in Thunder Bay.
    14 05 07 JB
    15 months later, I still predict that Mauro will narrowly hold on to this seat, and that I'll be voting Liberal for the first time ever in any election!
    I have my reasons not to support Mary Kozorys. In 2011, I made a small campaign donation over the phone and her office must've misplaced my credit card info because it was never charged. After the campaign, that phone number immediately went out of service, and there was no response to numerous follow-up emails.
    Six months later, she had the gall to send out a generic letter requesting assistance to help recoup her election expenses.
    I hate to say it, but it's likely going to be another Liberal minority, and I'd rather have an MPP on the inside who will continue to bring attention to this region. Wynne knows that she MUST hold on to both Thunder Bay ridings, and I suspect that she will make every effort to ensure that!
    14 05 05 KS
    Liberals will narrowly hold this one again. Bill Mauro has now been promoted to cabinet.
    Wynne has also been aggressively pursuing Northern Ontario development strategies, which should help Liberal numbers.
    13 02 14 northerner
    The liberals are competing with bubonic plague for popularity in northern ontario right now. Far North Act....high energy costs...mills closed. The list of grievances is rather long. If this doesn't flip NDP I will be very surprised.
    13 02 11 JB
    This is the weaker of Thunder Bay's 2 Liberal seats, and it's either going to flop Liberal or NDP. In 2011, the Liberal candidate had better organizational skills when it came out to getting the votes.
    At this point, I'm calling TCTC, but slightly leaning towards Mauro, based on name recognition. He previously served on city council representing a south-side city ward.
    This will be yet another nail-biter on election night.

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