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 | 14 06 09 |
therealbatman 76.70.71.126 |
Levac only won by about 1000 votes in 2011, so this should be a pickup for the PC's if the polls hold. |
 | 14 06 08 |
Trinity-Spadina Progressive 50.100.191.163 |
Calling this one a Tory pickup. Dave Levac's vote share declined significantly in 2011 and it looks like the NDP is pulling votes from the Liberals in Brant too. |
 | 14 06 08 |
A.S. 99.233.52.111 |
Here's one for the 3-way fetishists--a low-hanging-fruit Liberal seat where Levac marginally survived the Tory onslaught (and earned Speakerdon for his efforts); but also with perfect SW Ontario urban-heartland demographics for the Horwath Dipper strategy; also, relative to where the PCs are at now, I'd wonder if Gillies comes off as too much of a John Tory mushy-moderate for his own good (and, hey: when he lost in 1987, it was a third-place humiliation kind of loss). In the end, if anything'll blow the 3-way dynamic, it'll be if Levac's incumbency galvanizes the strategic 'left vote' onto his side... |
 | 14 06 08 |
Brant Liberal 70.48.213.93 |
Gilles hasn't got traction with anyone under 55 years who voted Tory last six elections. Gilles brought in Bill Davies to speak this week - you can only campaign on full funding for catholic education and support for the Patriation of the Charter of Rights and Freedoms for a couple of decades before you the voters reach for their I-Pads. My gut says Levac with the exact same result as last time. |
 | 14 06 07 |
ron 70.53.81.228 |
LIberal support is soft. This is going to come down to voter turnout and what happens on the ground. NDP surprise is possible. |
 | 14 06 07 |
precision 142.150.49.185 |
I'll be watching this one closely on election night. If Tories win, they may get most seats. I would really like it if Brant voters would contribute more to this page. This used to be about as Lib as you could get with the Nixon family and the Speaker is here. I'm wondering if some NDP will vote LIB to block PCs or stick to their candidate. Thoughts? It's interesting that Bradley, who usually wins by slim margins in St. Catharines, is doing quite well. Somewhat similar situation: noted cabinet minister in close race. Has anyone seen a recent poll for Brant? I'd assume that it would go Tory but for Levac's name recognition. |
 | 14 06 03 |
Former Liberal Executive 99.227.144.7 |
I drove through the riding and it is awash with PC signs. When I had lunch in the area, I had several conversations with locals and sense that the scandals are very large in the voters' minds. Apparently the local PC candidate is quite well-known and very well liked. I can not see the Liberals hanging on to this riding. |
 | 14 05 18 |
Jeff316 69.196.138.207 |
If the Tories take Brant, it will be because Alexandra Felsky takes 30 percent of the vote, and not because of Phil Gillies. |
 | 14 05 17 |
ron 70.53.82.95 |
This is definitely shaping up to be a race. Ndp support is visible in areas of the city not seen for years. Pulling vote will be key. Liberals are definitely slow out of the gate. |
 | 14 05 08 |
Numbers Pundit 209.239.28.137 |
At this stage, the trend favours a Tory pick-up here provided the provincial PCs' polling numbers hold (currently at or just a millimetre above 2011). Brant can count on some of Levac's left-flank vote to move to the NDP, further siphoning away the 1,100 vote advantage Levac held over the Tories in 2011. It is very true Levac is popular in the riding but he is indisputably swimming upstream against a general anti-Grit tidal wave in south-central/southwestern Ontario. Brant has swung sharply to the federal Tories in recent years. But the outcome is up to Hudak. If he repeats 2011, Levac may win by a whisker - literally 200-500 votes and the Levac campaign cannot afford to lose a single vote in this race. Coat tails will matter to the provincial PCs in several ridings as memories of 2011 and Hudak's historically low personal polling numbers continue to make even reliable Tories ambivalent. |
 | 14 05 10 |
Judy 99.237.211.24 |
If the Tories take Brant, it will be a Phil Gillies win, not a Tim Hudak win. |
 | 14 05 08 |
Numbers Pundit 209.239.28.137 |
At this stage, the trend favours a Tory pick-up here provided the provincial PCs' polling numbers hold (currently at or just a millimetre above 2011). Brant can count on some of Levac's left-flank vote to move to the NDP, further siphoning away the 1,100 vote advantage Levac held over the Tories in 2011. It is very true Levac is popular in the riding but he is indisputably swimming upstream against a general anti-Grit tidal wave in south-central/southwestern Ontario. Brant has swung sharply to the federal Tories in recent years. But the outcome is up to Hudak. If he repeats 2011, Levac may win by a whisker - literally 200-500 votes and the Levac campaign cannot afford to lose a single vote in this race. Coat tails will matter to the provincial PCs in several ridings as memories of 2011 and Hudak's historically low personal polling numbers continue to make even reliable Tories ambivalent. |
 | 14 05 07 |
CL 64.229.176.220 |
Phil is extremely visible in the riding and well-liked. He's going to give Dave Levac a run for his money. I predict a win for Phil. He's a red Tory. |
 | 14 05 04 |
Brant Liberal 50.101.156.253 |
Dave Levac is incredibly popular locally. And that is the key to victory. NDP lady |
 | 14 05 03 |
KS 199.212.66.91 |
Brant will be a riding targeted by all three parties. Will be a close race. Speaker Dave Levac is respected, but not necessarily popular. He can be defeated by the NDP or PC candidates. |
 | 13 03 02 |
northerner 76.67.27.218 |
On election night Brant will be a key swing seat to be watching. A win here will spell good news for Hudak. This a seat Hudak MUST to win in order to get into minority government territory. Much for the same reasons that I have said that St Catharines will go PC this time... the same applies to Brant. The margin of victory for the liberals last time was quite small. Either the NDP or the PC's do better province wide and the PC's pick this up. Recycled candidate or not..the PC's are going to win this unless something very weird happens. |
 | 13 03 02 |
seasaw 99.225.1.213 |
Levac for a fifth term. The PC candidate is Phil Gillies, the same guy who represented this riding from 1981-1987. Not much chance when you bring back a politician of a different era. |