Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2014

Scarborough-Guildwood


Prediction Changed
2014-05-29 08:55:00
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Bustard, Jeffrey

Hunter, Mitzie

Kerr, Richard

Kirupa, Ken

Sawdon, John

Syed, Shuja

Incumbent:
Mitzie Hunter

Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide – Ontario (Scarborough-Guildwood)
  • 2011 Provincial Election Prediction
  • 2011 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2008 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2007 Provincial Election Prediction


    2011 Result:

    * MARGARETT BEST
    1560748.93%
    GARY ELLIS
    913728.65%
    LORRI URBAN
    619419.42%
    NAOSHAD POCHKHANAWALA
    4131.29%
    SAM APELBAUM
    4071.28%
    MATTHEW OLIVER
    1360.43%
    2007 Result:
    MARGARETT BEST
    14,43042.52%
    GARY GRANT
    9,50328.00%
    NEETHAN SHAN
    7,44121.93%
    GLENN KITCHEN
    1,8115.34%
    SAM APELBAUM
    4841.43%
    DANIEL CARVALHO
    2670.79%

    2003 Result (redistributed):

    1699152.55%
    969829.99%
    410912.70%


  •  


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    14 06 05 Larry
    70.27.14.224
    Mitzie should win here with some comfort, now the NDP are not able to run a full campaign due to a lack of volunteers according to their Riding President. The Tories have plenty of signs, but Mitzie has been an excellent constituency member.
    14 06 04 Marco Ricci
    99.241.63.7
    The NDP candidate who had the NDP nomination taken away from her by Adam Giambrone has endorsed Liberal MPP Mitizie Hunter.
    http://www.insidetoronto.com/news-story/4555732-scarborough-guildwood-former-ndp-contender-backs-liberal-candidate-for-re-election/
    14 05 22 Alice
    67.70.86.233
    NDP is collapsing in the 416. This riding is going to be easier for the Liberals to win then it was in the by-election. Hunter retains.
    14 05 19 A.S.
    99.233.52.111
    Yeah, no more Giambrone (phew!)--but oddly (and who knows what that says about the fallout), the person he ousted, Amarjeet Chhabra, *isn't* his NDP replacement. But I agree that the end result should be more status quo now--depending on what status quo might turn out to be; after all, as TSP indicates, this *was* a strategic testing ground for the ONDP, and the end result w/an apparently uncongenial parachute turned out 'promising'. So, perhaps, the byelection turned out to be a stronger foretelling than the Chretien-Martin-McGuinty-era fed-prov landslides of yore...
    14 05 15 Trinity-Spadina Progressive
    70.49.168.176
    A testing ground for the 'Ford New Democrat' strategy - NDP 'star candidate' Adam Giambrone came in third. For all the talk of 'the NDP vote went up by six points!' Giambrone is not running for obvious reasons. Looks like this will revert back to Liberal auto-pilot mode, given that Mitzie Hunter now enjoys the advantage of incumbency and with the Liberals polling high in Toronto.
    14 05 04 monkey
    174.114.16.226
    While the by-election was somewhat close, this is normally a safe riding so as long as the Liberals are in second or first in the polls they should be fine here.
    13 09 15
    198.200.89.110
    Like the previous poster, likely liberal hold. Wynne's transit vision will be appealing here.
    13 09 14
    198.200.89.110
    This riding went liberal in the by-elections at the height of the liberal gas plant scandal. Mitzie Hunter is a strong candidate, and it is unlikely that Giambrone will be running here in a general election (he will either pick a downtown riding or stay out). The liberal about-face on subways will help them here, and the liberals will likely improve on their by-election result as Mitzie becomes better known (as well as the incumbency advantage). Comfortable liberal hold.
    13 06 05 A.S
    184.146.113.65
    Looking very good for the PCs here right now. Many reasons for this. The current incumbent, Margarett Best, has been under controversy after taking a vacation while on
    13 04 24 OnPoliGeek
    24.235.100.178
    Seeing that the current MPP, Margarett Best, has been on medical leave for close to three months, I wonder if she will even be nominated in the riding. That said, the PCs have a dismal record in this riding and the Liberals will take it.
    13 03 03 seasaw
    99.225.1.213
    The last time the Tories tried everything and they even had a star candidate, they didn't even come close. Expect a bigger win for Margaret Best this time.



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