Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2014

Scarborough Centre


Prediction Changed
2013-04-14 20:49:00
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Baker, Carol

Duguid, Brad

Ramalho, David

Yaghledjian, Edward

Incumbent:
Brad Duguid

Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide – Ontario (Scarborough Centre)
  • 2011 Provincial Election Prediction
  • 2011 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2008 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2007 Provincial Election Prediction


    2011 Result:

    BRAD DUGUID
    1614251.43%
    CAROL WILLIAMS
    751123.93%
    KATHLEEN MATHURIN
    687621.91%
    JEFF MOLE
    5581.78%
    DAVID DRIVER
    3010.96%
    2007 Result:
    * BRAD DUGUID
    17,77553.66%
    SAMY APPADURAI
    8,32025.12%
    KATHLEEN MATHURIN
    4,40113.29%
    ANDREW STRACHAN
    1,8275.52%
    THOMAS LANG
    4511.36%
    DAVID PREDOVICH
    3491.05%

    2003 Result (redistributed):

    1664452.27%
    866027.20%
    295909.29%


  •  


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    14 05 19 A.S.
    99.233.52.111
    In 2011, I suggested that in the unlikely event of Duguid being done no good, it might well be by the NDP rather than the PCs--and as it turned out, they were ohsoclose in second/third place. And neither of them managed even half of Duguid's share. It's presently Grit bedrock, folks--an earthier, Cold War ethnoburban pendant to the affluent gentility of Don Valley West...
    14 05 04 monkey
    174.114.16.226
    Normally a safe Liberal riding and Brad Duguid is quite popular so even if the NDP and Tories were competitive here federally, I suspect all the soft Tory and NDP voters from the federal election will stay with the Liberals which will be more than enough to win. The question is will Duguid get over 50% or not, not whether he will win or not.
    13 09 14
    198.200.89.110
    Duguid is a popular MPP and cabinet minister. The fact that this seat has been grit for a long while back, combined with the fact the liberals jumped on the subway bandwagon will stem any liberal vote bleeding in this riding. Comfortable liberal hold.
    13 04 10
    70.30.132.201
    Brad Duguid has earned 50+% of the vote in three consecutive elections. With this trend and the Conservatives running a paper candidate, it would take a massive sweep for either party to dislodge Duguid, and province-wide polls don't suggest that that's in the cards.
    13 04 08 seasaw
    99.225.1.213
    Duguid again for the 4th time. He's the kind of a person who not only appeals to Liberals but to a lot of Tories as well, that's the majority of voters.



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