Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2014

Scarborough-Agincourt


Prediction Changed
2013-03-11 22:14:00
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Chen, Liang Hsuan

Clarke, Kevin

Thompson, Pauline

Wilson, Alex

Wong, Soo

Incumbent:
Soo Wong

Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide – Ontario (Scarborough-Agincourt)
  • 2011 Provincial Election Prediction
  • 2011 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2008 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2007 Provincial Election Prediction


    2011 Result:

    SOO WONG
    1490746.85%
    LIANG CHEN
    1022232.13%
    PAUL CHOI
    501715.77%
    PAULINE THOMPSON
    7222.27%
    DOUG MCLARTY
    6562.06%
    PRIYA AHUJA
    2090.66%
    SABRINA WALL
    830.26%
    2007 Result:
    * GERRY PHILLIPS
    19,54158.08%
    JOHN DEL GRANDE
    8,53125.36%
    YVETTE BLACKBURN
    3,53110.49%
    GEORGE PAPPAS
    1,5114.49%
    MAX WANG
    5321.58%

    2003 Result (redistributed):

    1901861.34%
    953530.75%
    169605.47%


  •  


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    14 05 25 A.S.
    99.233.52.111
    A curiously close-ish race by 2011 standards, considering the Toryproof long service by Gerry Phillips and Soo Wong's trustee profile--perhaps continued Ford-ish good faith from Asiancourt's home-and-condo-owners, combined with a boost from the Mike Del Grande machine? (After all, Del Grande's practically endorsed Wong's federal Liberal counterpart Jim Karygiannis as his municipal successor.) Whatever the case, I can't see Wynne Nation breaking in Soo Wong's disfavour--though there's talk that candidate-nomination unrest may endanger her federal byelection counterpart...
    13 09 15
    198.200.89.110
    The liberal flip-flop on subways takes away any real gains the tories may have made in this riding since the last election. Liberal hold is very likely.
    13 04 25 LFC Ottawa
    70.26.27.46
    I would not be so fast to call this one Liberal yet. It was the closest Scarborough seat last time, so there is a base of PC support. Key this election, Ford's subway proposal would have gone right through the centre of the riding. . . and the Liberals voted against it (Despite how Soo, Brad, Margaret and Tracy wanted to vote in favour). 37.4% of the riding identifies as Chinese, so both the Liberal and PC candidates fit the largest ethnic group, giving no advantage. (Soo is born in Hong Kong, and Liang in Taiwan) In the end, I say that Ford Nation gets out behind Liang Chen, and the PC's make a breakthrough in Scarborough.
    13 03 03 seasaw
    99.225.1.213
    A Liberal riding since 1987. Unlike most Scarborough ridings, it did not go NDP in 1990, or Tory in 1995 or 1999. It is safe to say it'll stay Liberal.
    13 02 16 Jack Cox
    24.226.65.140
    If the Federal Liberals managed to hold this seat when the gates came crashing down I think the Provincial Liberals should be able to have enough votes to hang on here.



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