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Ontario Provincial Election - 2014

St. Paul's


Prediction Changed
2013-02-16 14:35:00
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Deluce, Justine

Hoskins, Eric

Kittredge, John

Rachlis, Josh

Savage, Luke

Incumbent:
Eric Hoskins

Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide – Ontario (St. Paul's)
  • 2011 Provincial Election Prediction
  • 2011 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2008 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2007 Provincial Election Prediction


    2011 Result:

    * ERIC HOSKINS
    2504858.39%
    CHRISTINE MCGIRR
    897220.92%
    DAVID HYNES
    712416.61%
    JUDITH VAN VELDHUYSEN
    11802.75%
    JOHN KITTREDGE
    3350.78%
    MIKE RITA
    860.2%
    KEITH PINTO
    830.19%
    DAVID VALLANCE
    690.16%
    2007 Result:
    * MICHAEL BRYANT
    21,28047.43%
    LILLYANN GOLDSTEIN
    11,91026.54%
    JULIAN HELLER
    7,06115.74%
    STEVEN D'SA
    3,7448.34%
    CHARLES DE KERCKHOVE
    3280.73%
    JOHN KITTREDGE
    2400.53%
    BLAISE THOMPSON
    1900.42%
    CAROL LEBORG
    1150.26%

    2003 Result (redistributed):

    2208855.26%
    922123.07%
    612115.31%


  •  


    Put your political/campaign ad here! Replace it with your campaign ad! See sponsorship details.

    14 06 08 jeff316
    75.119.246.180
    Deluce is giving it the best go of any recent candidates - Sue Ann Levy included - but Hoskins could top 60 as the NDP vote drops by almost half.
    14 05 24 Marco Ricci
    99.241.63.7
    As someone noted below, Eric Hoskins won this seat by a larger margin than his predecessor Michael Bryant. That indicates a large level of popularity that is likely to continue well into the future. Add this to the fact that this riding also remained Liberal federally in the Ignatieff wipe-out of 2011 with Carolyn Bennett, and it appears that this riding really likes its two Liberal Doctors!
    14 05 20 Josh
    66.241.132.116
    The PC's have an articulate, visible candidate... but that doesn't matter. The signs on private property are all red, and Hoskins is well liked. He'll be re-elected with a significant margin, even if the Liberal vote tanks province wide.
    Date 14 seasaw
    99.224.211.188
    I wouldn't agree that this is THE safest seat in Ontario, but it sure is one very safe Liberal seat. The PC's have Justine Deluce, a very intelligent and well liked candidate, though she may increase the PC vote, she would be far from winning it. The only way the PC's could win here is if Wynne screws up royally, and even then, there are a lot of other ridings, including Wynne's own that'll go PC before this one. Justine will takes this, if Wynne takes a Campbell stye beating and somehow, I can't see that happen.
    14 05 13 Pete G.
    174.116.178.76
    As a resident of St. Paul's (and Conservative supporter), I regard it as indeed the safest Liberal riding in Ontario. It's too urbane and far downtown to be a PC possibility, yet too well-off and part of the 'establishment' (and thus interested in holding power) to go the the NDP (which is a remote possibility for Toronto Centre). While it frequently went PC up to the mid-90s (but note those elected were almost entirely RED Tories), there's been a political re-alignment since, which is the same reason ridings like Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke and Chatham-Kent-Essex have turned into Tory strongholds. I don't entirely understand said re-alignment, but it may have something to do with how the parties are perceived to align themselves vis-a-vis social and cultural issues.
    14 05 11 Jeff R.
    108.175.224.109
    Toronto Centre is actually a lot safer than St. Paul's. Forest Hill is a reliable PC-leaning enclave that might make the redistributed St Paul's mildly more interesting in the 2015 federal election. But for now, Hoskins is the perfect candidate for this riding and has it in the bag.
    A.S.
    99.233.52.111
    It wasn't just that Hoskins won in 2011; it's that he soared from Michael Bryant's 'normal' 50ish Liberal share to something closer to the 60% stratosphere--and all of that in spite of whatever lingering stink Bryantgate or the federal Grit collapse left. And now that we're dealing with Premier Wynne--well, 2/3 of the vote might be far fetched to predict (face it: 20% is something of a 'floor' for the Tories), but the Grit vote won't be sinking beneath Bryant levels any time soon...
    14 05 07 Trinity-Spadina Progressive
    70.49.168.176
    St. Paul's is the safest Liberal riding in Ontario: if Ontario politics went the way of Manitoba politics, this would be the one seat remaining. It is a highly educated, small-'l' liberal riding where humanitarian (War Child Canada) and multi-degreed Eric Hoskins (MD and PhD) is a perfect fit. And Kathleen Wynne plays especially well in St. Paul's as well.
    14 05 04 monkey
    174.114.16.226
    Upper middle class, university educated, this is your classical liberal elite latte sipping riding never mind Eric Hoskins is well liked so Wynne's pension plan which mainly benefits upper middle class and green policies should be quite popular here. The PCs would only have a chance if they had a strong Red Tory in the Bill Davis mold, but Hudak is simply too right wing for this riding while its too wealthy for the NDP. The PCs though may win Forest Hills which covers a large portion area wise, but will get clobbered everywhere else and thus lose the riding.
    14 05 04 MH
    70.53.47.111
    No matter which party ends up winning most seats, this one will go Liberal. The NDP doesn't have a ghost of a chance, and Mr. Hudak sounds too much like Mike Harris to have much appeal here.
    13 09 14
    198.200.89.110
    When the liberals were down in the polls at 20% (near the end of McGuinty's tenure) they would win, according to threehundredeight.com, 3 seats in Ontario. This would have been one of them. No need to say any more.
    13 02 27 seasaw
    99.225.1.213
    Just like my comment about TC, Wynne doesn't have much of an appeal. This riding will stay Liberal, because it has voted Liberal since 1999. NDP is not much of a factor. It is true that prior to Michael Bryant, the MPP a good chunk of this riding was Isabelle Bassett and the reason she won was a, because who she was and b, in 1995 people here associated PC with Bill Davis, neither of which are a factor today. Also, Dr Eric Hoskins is a great MPP and someone who appeals to the people in this riding regardless of their beverage of choice.
    13 02 16 Jack Cox
    24.226.65.140
    Eric Hoskins is a rising star in the party, there is no way he loses this.
    13 02 14
    99.231.65.45
    With Wynne's appeal to the latte drinking downtown type, and Hoskins



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