Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Ontario Provincial Election - 2014

Ottawa-Vanier


Prediction Changed
2013-03-01 17:54:00
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Bagler, David

Forget, Martin

Meilleur, Madeleine

Ngamby, Herve

Richard, Phillip

Incumbent:
Madeleine Meilleur

Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide – Ontario (Ottawa-Vanier)
  • 2011 Provincial Election Prediction
  • 2011 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2008 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2007 Provincial Election Prediction


    2011 Result:

    * MADELEINE MEILLEUR
    1961951.51%
    FRED SHERMAN
    892923.44%
    PAUL ÉTIENNE LALIBERTÉ-TIPPLE
    746619.6%
    DAVE BAGLER
    17194.51%
    EMMANUEL HOULE
    3520.92%
    2007 Result:
    * MADELEINE MEILLEUR
    20,95450.96%
    BRUCE POULIN
    9,16922.30%
    RIC DAGENAIS
    6,04914.71%
    LEONARD POOLE
    4,29310.44%
    FRANK CIOPPA
    3960.96%
    ROBERT LARTER
    2550.62%

    2003 Result (redistributed):

    1927152.12%
    967626.17%
    596216.12%


  •  


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    14 05 30 GV
    99.241.86.176
    Meilleur has been a profoundly unpopular corrections minister, but those news stories haven't really filtered back to her Liberal-friendly riding. The opposition parties simply aren't mounting sufficiently spirited campaigns to have much of a shot here.
    14 05 28 A.S.
    99.233.52.111
    For all Ottawa-Vanier's safety, to point out the 1990 Grit result against the grain of the Rae NDP landslide is a little deceiving--back then, Franco-Ontarians (not least in Vanier proper) were still prone to bloc-voting for the Grits; however, more recent trends have shown Grit support in Vanier proper to be par or even below par (maybe w/some reflection of the Franco-Canadian 'Orange Crush' effect), while the strongest Liberal spots these days tend to be cultural class enclaves a la New Edinburgh (which, in 1990, were *below* Grit average and *above* NDP average) So, it's a reversible Liberal jacket OttVan-ians are wearing--but, short of an unlikely local Re-Orange-Crush surge from the Horwathians, they're still wearing it...
    14 05 22 As is
    192.0.136.215
    This riding is so red that in the NDP landslide of 1990, the Liberals still managed to win by over 40 points. With no serious threats to Liberal strength in the cores of Ottawa and Toronto this election cycle, it's hard to see that changing, even with an incumbent whose record as minister responsible for correctional services includes being responsible for a young woman forced to give birth in a provincial jail cell without access to any kind of medical assistance or pain medication.
    14 05 16 Trinity-Spadina Progressive
    70.49.168.176
    Ottawa-Vanier was one of the surviving Liberal seats in the 2011 federal debacle so I don't see them losing it now. Interestingly this seems like a riding tailor-made for an NDP breakthrough but I don't see it happening any time soon.
    14 05 12 Marco Ricci
    99.241.63.7
    I agree that this will be another win for Madeleine Meilleur of the Liberals. She has won with over 50% of the vote in the past several elections and continues to maintain a high-profile as a cabinet minister. Earlier this year she became the first Francophone Minister of Justice in Ontario's history and this received much coverage in the local news. This riding (along with Ottawa South) is also one of 2 Ottawa ridings that stayed Liberal during the Ignatieff wipe-out in 2011. The only question will be whether Madeleine Meilleur gets over 50% again.
    14 05 11
    99.241.218.99
    Regardless of who forms government, this should stay Liberal. Anything can happen, but the Liberals would have to truly fall apart to lose this seat.
    14 05 04 monkey
    174.114.16.226
    This is the safest Liberal riding outside the GTA so unless the Liberals win no ridings outside the GTA (which is highly unlikely) they will hold this. Large number of civil servants who although most are federal, they generally tend to prefer parties in general who want to expand government not reduce its size.
    13 02 24 LFC Ottawa
    70.30.20.189
    This seat is as Lib



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