Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2014

Ottawa South

Prediction Changed
2013-02-16 14:35:00

Constituency Profile


Brisson, Jean-Serge

Fraser, John

Funiciello, Bronwyn

Lakatos-Hayward, Matt

Manirambona, Espoir

McGruer, David

Redins, John

Young, Matt

John Fraser


  • Pundits’ Guide – Ontario (Ottawa South)
  • 2011 Provincial Election Prediction
  • 2011 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2008 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2007 Provincial Election Prediction

    2011 Result:

    2007 Result:

    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    14 06 09 John
    I agree that this should be in the bag for the Liberals. John Fraser has done some great work for his community as an MPP and before that.
    The danger to them lies in complacency on E Day. The PC voters and team are VERY motivated (if their raucousness at the debate was any indication), and the Liberal GOTV team has to be mindful of that.
    Expect to see the same margin of victory for Fraser as we saw in the by-election.
    14 06 09 A.S.
    Here's a case where if we transcribe what happened in the byelection to the present, the narrow Forum-poll Liberal advantage promises to be not-so-narrow come e-day--I mean, given what surrounds Ottawa South, it should be more Tory-amenable; but the whole McGuinty clan's stranglehold on non-dogmatic big-tent 'Blue Liberalism' chokes that PC potential on the vine, federally and provincially. That said, the persistence of the PC spectre made for sluggish around-the-50%-mark McGuinty victories through his leadership--which should have made a byelection against someone *not* surnamed McGuinty an easy gain; but it was not to be. Once again, wait until Lisa MacLeod becomes PC leader, or something.
    14 06 08 EdwardV
    This one will be an easy hold for the Liberals. The Liberal election machine here is humming along quite well. They have canvassed my area twice and talking to their volunteers they expect to complete a 2nd complete canvass of the riding. I have seen no sign whatsoever of the NDP or PC's outside of their signs. Given what I have been seeing the PC's would need about a 10-15% lead with a high turnout to win this riding. With the Forum poll showing a Liberal lead of 5 points hard to see the PC's even being competitive here on election day. Prediction of about 23k votes for Lib, 17-18k for PC, and 4k for the NDP.
    14 06 07 Toronto Star/Forum Poll
    Ottawa South (polled Sunday, 660 people, accurate to within 4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20) Liberal John Fraser 46 per cent, Progressive Conservative Matt Young 41 per cent, New Democrat Bronwyn Funiciello 9 per cent, Green Matt Lakatos-Hayward 4 per cent.
    14 06 06 LFC Ottawa
    Ottawa South and Thornhill are the two ridings that parties waste time and resources in. The PC's will not take this seat no matter how much they think they will.
    14 05 30 GV
    Marco Ricci is correct that the Liberal ground-game in this riding is very tough to beat. The by-election results represent what I believe to be the PCs' high water mark in Ottawa South; it's hard to see them doing better than last time with their resources diffused province-wide and two much more promising pick-up opportunities in Ottawa.
    14 05 25 Arden
    I've had trouble successfully predicting this riding's outcome before, but I vote liberal for this riding for a two major reasons:
    1. The polling data available to me (mostly using Ipsos' most recent poll as the most accurate and recent one available to me) seems to indicate the liberals are doing well relative to the PCs.
    2. The results of the last by-election
    14 05 20 Marco Ricci
    This riding seems to have one of the strongest Liberal organizations in Eastern Ontario. Every time I think the Liberals are in trouble here, they end up doing better than the political talk says. Last summer it looked like the Liberals would lose this riding, and yet John Fraser was able to retain it. In 2011, David McGuinty was also able to retain it by a comfortable 10 points during the Ignatieff federal wipe-out. David McGuinty has a vested interest in maintaining his brother Dalton's legacy and helped campaign for John Fraser last summer in the by-election. David McGuinty has also been nominated again to run in the 2015 federal election, so he obviously intends to maintain a strong presence here. I don't think one can say it's a sure thing for John Fraser yet as the Matt Young campaign is organizing for a re-match, but history appears to be on Fraser's side so far.
    14 05 17 Good Government
    This riding is one that the Conservatives must pick up along with Ottawa-West if they are looking at forming a Majority Government. In the By-Election the Tories were poorly organized and had a first time candidate. I am sure they have learned from their mistakes. The Liberals have a well liked candidate who unfortunately has to run on both sides of the Liberal record. Mr. Fraser is happy to take credit for some of the McGuinty Liberals accomplishments but doesn`t like to talk about the negatives and the scandals. The Liberals also have a well oiled machine that will make the Conservative`s job much harder.In addition the Hudak job cuts will not sell well in all the riding in Ottawa and may be the dipping point to re-electing the Liberals.
    Having said all that I think that this riding in Ottawa-West will BOTH go Conservative on election night in two of the closest races in the province.
    14 05 16 Trinity-Spadina Progressive
    The riding the pollsters never seem to get right. The Tories are supposed to win Ottawa South, and then they don't. It survived the 2011 disaster federally and I don't see it going Tory this time either.
    14 05 14 John
    I fail to see how one could be all over the riding and not seen a single Liberal sign on private property!
    I live in the south end of the riding and the the private property signs are about 50/50 OLP and OPC. Just drive along Pleasant Park or Kilborn. There are, however, significantly more OPC signs on public property.
    John Fraser has been very visible and an approachable MPP since the by-election. He will win this hands-down.
    14 05 12 EdwardV
    I have to disagree with Cade saying that canvassing is not important. The entire purpose of the local campaign is to find your vote and get it out. The only way to find your vote is to canvass the riding, either by knocking on doors or by phone. The last by-election proved that beyond any doubt. The Conservatives had a 10 point lead here and lost because they failed to go out and find their vote. The Liberals on the other hand went all out, found their vote and on election day had the scrutineers in place to get that vote out. Given the expected turn out in that by-election was 30% and the poll numbers had the Liberals at 35% with 87000 voters in this riding they should have only had about 9135 votes. They ended up with 15000 which means that the Liberal election effort resulted in upwards of 6000 additional votes. The Conservative vote based on expected turnout and poll results had them at 11745. They got just over 12000 so only a few hundred (500 max) votes at most could possibly be credited to their campaign. If you give up about 5500 votes to your opponent you are not going to win many elections where turnout is low. Having an effective canvass with the necessary numbers of scrutineers on election day will be critical for the conservatives here in Ottawa South. If they don't have that then it is hard seeing them taking this riding.
    14 05 11
    With the PCs polling well in Eastern Ontario they could pull off an upset here, but the riding has been pretty solidly Liberal over the past 25 years and the party is putting lots of resources into it. Anything could happen, but I would say this is leaning Liberal.
    14 05 10 Cade
    I was all over this riding today and did not see a single Liberal sign on private property. Lots of Blue. On the public property side the PCs are winning the sign war 3:1 over the Libs. Pretty bad rollout for an incumbent in a vulnerable riding. Of course signs don't mean anything, and neither does canvassing. I've seen campaigns run effective canvass of their whole riding and got nothing for it except advance notice they were going to get buried.
    14 05 08 EdwardV
    After watching the by-election and the results I see this riding staying Liberal at this time. While I believe the Conservatives actually have more support here (by-election polls had Cons-45%, Libs-35%) the difference in the abilities of the local campaigns are significant. I know in the last by Election the Liberals were able to canvass the entire riding twice and some polls 3 times. The Cons however, appear to have been missing in action. I talked to people who live in polls that the Cons do well in and they never saw any indication that they were visited. News reports on Cons canvassing also indicated that they were not effective in finding their voters. Unless the local conservatives really up their game here, are able to actually get people out finding their vote in an effective and efficient manner they will lose again to a very well organized and effective Liberal campaign team.
    14 05 06 Dr Bear
    If this riding was going to flip to the PC, it would have done so during the byelection last year. Barring a PC surge, it will stay Liberal.
    14 05 06 DL
    This riding will go Liberal again. As the recent by-election last summer shown, even with McGuinty stepping down, and running another Liberal candidate, it went Liberal. The general election will show that it will be a Liberal victory by even a larger margin, barring some major catastrophe on the Liberal end.
    14 05 04 monkey
    Even though McGuinty is no longer running, this riding has shown remarkable consistency in results so its probably safe to say barring something unforeseen that the NDP will get in the teens, PCs in the 30s and Liberals in the 40s.
    13 06 13 seasaw
    Well, Dalton stepped down, when he said he wasn't going to. He has hardly ever been at work, nor has he been around his riding. His executive director will be running to replace him. Three reasons why the PC's will take this: 1. Past history ( read my previous comment ) 2. McGuinty's conduct over the past year 3. The scandals that are facing the Liberals. There are several other reasons, but these three would do. Think, the voters here will send the sitting government a strong message.
    13 05 15 DL
    The Liberals should win this riding but by a smaller margin. The PCs will give it a fight, seeing its McGuintys riding and he is most likely not running next time, the PCs will want to make a story out of it.
    13 02 17 seasaw
    If history repeats itself, this riding won't stay Liberal. In Ontario, usually when a Premier has stepped down, the seat has almost always changed parties. In 1971 John Robarts' London seat went Liberal, as did Bill Davis's seat in 1985, and also Frank Miller's seat in 1987. Gerard Kennedy started his political career by winning the seat held by former premier Bob Rae. Mike Harris's Nipissing riding, remained Tory in the by election, but only by 19 votes, it was won by the Liberals in the general election that followed. So, don't be so quick to put this one in the red column.
    13 02 16 Jack Cox
    This should stay in the Liberal column, though it remains to be seen if it was solely because of the McGuinty Name.

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