Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2014


Prediction Changed
2014-06-07 22:56:00

Constituency Profile


Chlobowski, Andrew

Clement, David

Flynn, Kevin

Marville, Che

Scott, Larry

Ursomarzo, Silvio

Kevin Flynn


  • Pundits’ Guide – Ontario (Oakville)
  • 2011 Provincial Election Prediction
  • 2011 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2008 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2007 Provincial Election Prediction

    2011 Result:

    2007 Result:

    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    14 06 09 Trinity-Spadina Progressive
    Oakville may have more people hit by the Liberals' tax increase on the top 2% than any other riding (except maybe Don Valley West), but given where the polls are I expect it to stay in the Liberal camp. However the two 'Oaks' - Oakville and Oak Ridges - would be the first to fall if the Tories pick up seats in the 905 belt. This should also have one of the lowest NDP votes in Ontario, given both its demographics and that Kevin Flynn himself is a progressive Liberal who used to be a New Democrat.
    14 06 03 Former Liberal Executive
    I was in Oakville for several hours yesterday on business. I just looked at this site to verify my estimation that the riding was swinging to PC. The riding is, after all awash with blue Larry Scott signs. During my business meetings and over supper I had plenty of time to collect opinions from constituents. I am (frankly) surprised to see the results on this riding. What I am hearing is that the voters are furious abut the Liberal scandals,one of which involved incumbent Flynn (the Liberal). This riding will be a solid PC win if the local trends do not change. I learned that Larry Scott is very well known, very well liked and not prone to misspeaking. Unless there is a gigantic RED tide across south Ontario, Keith Flynn is likely to lose.
    14 06 07 ME
    Spent today in Oakville...the riding is going LIberal...and a local poll show the liberal MPP with a 19 point lead...
    14 06 07 Votey McVoterson
    The latest Ipsos-Reid poll (released Friday, June 6th) has the PC's up 10 points on the Grits among 'likely voters' in the 905 Region. I'm not saying this will be a cake walk for Larry Scott (it's going to be close), but I see a possible upset here. Kevin Flynn, after all, certainly won't go up in votes. By looking at his past results, his numbers are very similar, like he's hit a glass ceiling. Yes, he has name-recognition, but the lingering Gas Plant scandal doesn't help on the other hand, and the Oakville Beaver (local newspaper) just endorsed his Tory opponent. Besides, it's really about leadership, and not the local race. With that all said, it's going to come down to Oakville swing voters, hence why I refer to Ipsos-Reid on this one.
    14 06 07 Harold
    Well I don't want to ruin my perfect record (beating election prediction once :) )
    This was very tough to call
    But tight win Liberals
    Factors (it was like watching a basketball game Wynne scores, Hudak scores again )
    ONT PC
    Hudak won the debate
    A small bounce to Conservatives
    ONT Lib
    Liberal won the campaign (the PC message too extreme for educated Oakville - and Hudak is not overly likeable (and why they kept him will always be beyond me considering their obvious talent pool))
    A popular MPP (actually as MPPs go popular) (though I argue An MPP is 2 % at best - though this 2% is needed this time)
    Not a strong central NDP Campaign (and the espionage done by a few disgruntled NDPers) and this actually gives the Liberals a point or two (and again it has nothing to do with the fine NDP candidate Che Marville)
    This affects Oakville in tight races
    I remarked on my daily run that there are actually fewer signs in Oakville than the last election - only the people who always put signs up
    I never received a phone call from anybody this election (unlike the last federal election)

    I've nicknamed this the meh election
    But having to make a call and taking the small PC bounce
    Meh it' s still tight Liberal due to Flynn's work
    and of course I will mention the gas plant scandal and I sincerely hope the fools who handled the compensation issue are appropriately dealt with (Criminally and/or publicly disgraced) but this always became a - We are glad it did not happen in Oakville - and all three parties did support closure
    14 06 02 Arden
    With the polls in mind, and the incumbency advantage in play, this race will be close but not enough for the PC party to secure a win. At least that's my prediction.
    14 05 28 A.S.
    'Does elect conservative candidates at times'? Actually, before Flynn, Oakville had a rock-hard solidly Conservative history other than the blip of the Peterson landslide (and technically, the Grits had the plurality within *these* boundaries in 1990 as well). Of course, the gas-plant thing makes this a *really* hot-button sort of incumbent Grit seat; and if Flynn holds, it'll be because the hot button's deemed so much hot air...but generally, it's noteworthy how once unsinkably blue Oakville has become so much of an eternal, viable base for 'Paul Martin Liberal' support; even in 2011's federal Iggy disaster, the non-incumbent Grit hit 30% here.
    14 05 26 Harold
    Too early to call (and I don't want my perfect record broken) as most Oakvillians haven't decided.
    Liberals have a popular MP Flynn in a riding with a Tory touch.
    But Kevin and Larry it's not really about you. It's about Kathleen and Tim.
    The possible scenarios
    Hudak strong win --- PC Win
    Liberals hold their vote - Flynn wins
    Oakvillians aren't really into opposition
    Usually a provincial trend will show up about I say June 6th (few days after the debate)
    14 05 25 R.O.
    This is one of the ridings home to the cancelled gas plants , if there is any ridings where voters want answers it might be here. As for the race Kevin Flynn remains a strong candidate for the liberals , Oakville however is not a solid liberal riding and does elect conservative candidates at times . Larry Scott is a good candidate for the Ont pc's and has run in the riding before . likely be a closer race than last time I suspect.
    13 03 31 TH
    This will be a close race, but as a resident of this riding, I can say that Flynn is a fairly popular MPP. That being said, the whole gas-plant fiasco isn't doing him any favours, but I think he's still popular enough to eke out a win.
    13 03 02 seasaw
    As things stand right now, this one is one of the most difficult ridings to predict. Both the Liberals and the PC's have a legitimate shot. We may have to wait and see whose poll numbers are higher in the last week of the campaign.
    13 02 09 Angry Ontarian
    Oakville is a Liberal power plant fiasco riding. Will voters reward the Grits or defeat MPP Flynn? Too early to tell. Post-McGuinty 905 region polls have the Tories, NDP, and Libs in the lead (depending which firm you pay attention to). So, I personally say the PC's have the edge.
    For now though, this riding is

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