Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2014

Northumberland-Quinte West

Prediction Changed
2014-06-06 08:20:00

Constituency Profile


Ludorf-Weaver, Gudrun

Mees, Kira

Milligan, Rob

Rinaldi, Lou

Rob Milligan


  • Pundits’ Guide – Ontario (Northumberland-Quinte West)
  • 2011 Provincial Election Prediction
  • 2011 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2008 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2007 Provincial Election Prediction

    2011 Result:

    2007 Result:

    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    14 06 03 sp clair
    The riding in a lot of areas was 'left out looking in on many situations' so if the bigger picture goes Liberal then this will likely hold true for Rinaldi's return. No-show Mees or Russ-Lite as she has been called is not a viable representative, missing many debates and leaves one to wonder about commitment.
    14 05 27 Port Hope Viewer
    Long time NDP supporter here. Have lived in the riding since 2009. Second provincial election here and get the feeling Libs may take this one back from the Tories. From what I hear on street people very surprised at last election result and determined not to have a PC member returned. NDP supporters like me thinking carefully about how to vote. Hudak scares many me included! Likely to vote Lib for first time unless Andrea can turn around the current view that the election is a two party race only. Will be watching the debate closely.
    14 05 26 A.S.
    There's a good reason why I wouldn't put much faith in the 'rising NDP vote defeating the Liberals' argument--the NDP + Green 'united left' share actually *fell* btw/'07 and '11. It was a broader rural Ontario heartland pattern that defeated Lou Rinaldi--but not by much; which may explain why he's hopeful enough to run again. And of course, the inherent expatriate-Torontonian Red Toryism of Port Hope and Cobourg and whatnot is the kind that may find Premier Wynne quite congenial--but as Ontario's had a bad recent record of Grits reclaiming lost-to-the-Tories seats, I just don't know what to say.
    14 05 25 Marco Ricci
    I think one factor that may determine what happens here is the NDP vote. The NDP vote went up in the last election (as it did in the election before that). That shift of Liberals to the NDP may have been what caused Lou Rinaldi to lose to the PC's. With the same NDP candidate running again, it could cause Rinaldi to lose his comeback attempt (particularly if the NDP goes up province-wide).
    14 05 22 Alice
    This riding was close last time but I think the PCs are going to retain this riding with a wider margin than they had in 2011.
    14 05 11 R.O.
    Current mpp Rob Milligan should be able to hold the riding for the pc's . the liberals do have their former mpp back as candidate but aren't at previous levels of support province wide . I would say its more likely the riding stays pc than returns to the liberals .
    14 05 08 Political Observer
    Rinaldi has long been a popular figure in Northumberland-Quinte West and he remains so today. Milligan has had a very rocky relationship with the municipalities from day one and can't expect to get very much support from them. He has also chosen to pick battles in the north-eastern regions of the riding from day one. This is problematic because this is also the area that he will need to rely heavilly on if he wished to get re-elected. My guess is that Rinaldi will return to Queens Park.
    14 05 04 KS
    This is the only rural riding that the Liberals have a chance of picking up. I believe, the Liberals have given up on the rural Southwest which were crucial to the McGuinty majorities of 2003 and 2007.
    Popular incumbent Lou Rinaldi lost this by a narrow margin in the last election. He is running again, and if the Liberals yield a good campaign here, this will go to them.
    Northumberland Quinte West was never a PC stronghold.
    13 05 14 Keen Observer
    This was a squeaker win for Milligan in 2011. However, rural Ontario is so angry with the Liberals generally that I think Milligan will actually win with a wider margin this time.
    13 04 10 seasaw
    The last time, the Liberals lost this one by a hair. This time though, they need to win back some rural ridings, they'd be spending a lot of money and energy, since this is the most likely seat to revert back to them.
    13 03 03 LFC Ottawa
    This was a big surprise on election night in 2011, when Lou was defeated. Now that he has moved on, its a strong PC seat.

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