Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2014


Prediction Changed
2013-02-10 14:58:00

Constituency Profile


Clement, Patrick

Elliott, Derek

Fedeli, Victor

Giroux, Henri

Peltier, Nicole

Whiting, Dr Catherine

Victor Fedeli


  • Pundits’ Guide – Ontario (Nipissing)
  • 2011 Provincial Election Prediction
  • 2011 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2008 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2007 Provincial Election Prediction

    2011 Result:

    2007 Result:

    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    Date 14 ABCPredictor
    In contrast to northern's comment, there are a few Liberal signs on private property this week. I think the local Liberal campaign was off to a sluggish start. Lots of PC signs on private property, and many of those properties are student housing that the landlord has placed there with students absent for the summer. So that's a bit misleading too although I do not doubt Vic's high popularity.
    Vic and Henri took to radio ads this week. Vic says his party would reduce from '1.1 million to 1 million' public sector jobs. That's an obvious change of language from the 100,000 cuts promoted by the PC campaign, and language that promotes the idea of a large public service.
    14 06 05 NJam101
    Northern Ontario's only PC seat will remain PC. Vic Fideli remains quite popular as MPP. It doesn't hurt that he was mayor of North Bay and that the vast majority of constituents in the riding are in N-Bay. Last time Fideli got about half of the votes just like Mike Harris used to get here. He is very high-profile in Northern Ontario even if most Northerners aren't fond of him. Nipissing and North Bay as an electoral district is much different than most of Northern Ontario. It has many smaller private businesses and more southern influence. But the other half of the population is anti-conservative and there is a large public sector workforce. This time it will be split between Liberal and NDP candidates. When former Liberal MPP Monique Smith won in 2003 and 2007 the NDP candidates had very low percentages of the votes.
    14 06 04 northerner
    9 days to go. STILL not a single private property lawn sign in evidence for the liberals. This one is over.
    14 05 27 ABCPredictor
    The first all-candidates debate for Nipissing was held at West Ferris Secondary School last night. 5 of 6 candidates attended with Vic Fedeli absent due to a previously scheduled town hall forum in Powassan that he hosted. Seems to be a pattern with Hudak not attending the upcoming Northern Ontario debate in Thunder Bay. The debate was a gong-show with many questions focused on education. About 60 citizens attended with lots of media coverage. This is a symptom of the riding's electorate not really looking for change. When few attend a debate, not much is at stake. Still a slam-dunk for Fedeli.
    14 05 19 nesooite
    Rematch from 2007. Same result except Conservatives will win even bigger. Strongest Conservative riding in the North and Fedeli is very popular. He will be in Cabinet if PC's win the election.
    14 05 19 A.S.
    For some reason, the Ontario PCs have been uncommonly blessed in the unlikely node of Nipissing--I mean, being largely urban and at the edge of Northern Ontario and all, it ought to be much more congenial to the Grits or even the NDP (and federally, Liberal red has indeed been the dominant pattern here) And naturally, the more recent party line ought to have been that it was more of a Mike Harris seat than a PC seat--right? Yeah, maybe there's truth to that; but nothing snuffs out truth like candidates of Vic Fedeli's stature--and the 2011 result (and Fedeli's subsequent performance) says it all. And indeed, dare I say it: if Hudak blows *this* election, we just might wind up seeing two successive elected Ontario PC Premiers from Nipissing...
    14 05 15 northerner
    Dr. Catherine Whiting is confirmed as the liberal candidate. I guess the liberals didn't want to spend money on signs. I can't say I blame them. Better to hang on to your cash when you know you aren't going to be competitive in the riding for the next 10 or 12 years. Vic is going to romp to victory again...and again...and again.
    14 05 13 ABCPredictor
    Dr. Catherine Whiting was just announced on 13 May 2014 as the Liberal candidate. So we have pretty much a rematch from the last time around. I predict lower voter turnout and lower votes for Fedeli due to Hudak's plan to cut 100,000 public service jobs (more than Harris did). Green's have yet to announce a candidate.
    14 05 11 Temiskaming guy
    Even if the PC campaign tanked, this would be a safe seat. Fideli has gone from solid performer to potential leadership candidate in the future.
    14 05 08 ABCPredictor
    The election seems to be slow in the early stages. There are hardly any election signs up. The Libertarian Party just announced a candidate, but still no announced candidate for the Liberals or Greens. I predict a lower voter turnout due to this 'slumber.' Unsure who that benefits most?
    14 05 06 Expat Ontarian
    Whether it was an attempt to break from Mike Harris' long shadow or simply having been caught up with the province-wide waves of change, Nipissing's flirtation with the Liberals in recent years is already a distant memory and is as much as it ever was a rare, safe bet for the PCs up North.
    14 05 06 Brainstrained
    Colour Nipissing Tory Blue.
    PC leader Tim Hudak could blow the election again, but he couldn't possibly blow this riding, given the popularity of incumbent Tory MPP Vic Fedeli.
    Provincially the Liberal efforts to regain the North - stopping the sale of the ONTC, re-instating a partial spring bear hunt, etc. . . - have failed to impress anyone. And locally, there is still no announced candidate.
    The NDP has occasionally been an influence, but not a force in this community. As good a person their candidate Henri Giroux is, he's not about to stage any upsets.
    The really question is by how much Fedeli increases his margin of victory.
    14 05 05 R.O.
    Pc hold for current mpp Vic Fedeli . high profile mpp for Ontario pc
    14 05 05 Dr Bear
    My home riding and it has become a Vic Fedeli riding. Though this may be one of the few Liberal-Conservative swing ridings in the north, Vic is very well liked and admired and with him as the candidate, the Liberals will have a hard time unseating him. Unlike our federal MP, he is highly visible in the media, always commenting on the radio about topics of importance and regularly updates resident with news letters. People who may disagree with his party's politics can still agree that he's on the ball and has North Bay's best interest at heart. His Achilles heel may be proposed sale of ONTC. When the Liberals propose this, their chances in this riding were reduced significantly. Early on, I heard a radio interview where Fedeli was asked in the PCs would stop the sale. He replied with something to the effect of the sale would be too far gone by the time we get to power for us to do anything about it. It was the one and only time were he sounded uncertain and unconvincing. The radio hosts started commenting after the report about people voting NDP. Granted, I am talking about an even that was some time ago and I am sure they have worked on responses for this topic. However, if the specter of ONTC shows up and the PC start supporting its sale, then I could envision Fedeli's support starting to evaporate. Barring that, a solid win for Fedeli.
    14 05 05 ABCPredictor
    Fedeli will win hands-down. As of early morning May 5, 2014 the Liberals have not publicly announced a candidate although they claim a few are waiting in the wings. Henri Giroux will be the candidate for NDP, and no candidate announced for the Greens.
    However the recent controversy of TransCanada's Energy East oil pipeline project going through North Bay's Trout Lake (drinking water source) is likely to buoy/increase some Green support. Former PC candidate and current North Bay Mayor Al McDonald with unanimous support of city council will seek intervenor status at NEB hearings about the project (to speak out against it/support protection of drinking water from a spill).
    14 05 04 monkey
    The PCs got over 50% last time around and with Vic Fedelli one of the strongest performers, he is almost certain to get a cabinet post if the PCs win. It was only close federally due to Anthony Rota's personal popularity. This riding has normally gone PC provincially and Liberal federally, so easy PC win.
    14 05 04 ABCPredictor
    Vic Fedeli is very popular in this riding having been the former mayor of North Bay. He's been hammering the liberals on the various policy ineptitude e.g. gas plants, ONTC sale. Never one to reject a photo op, he is liked by many even those who disagree with is party's policies.
    13 02 05 northerner
    Slam dunk for Vic last time even when the provincial numbers weren't going the right way for the PC's. No way he loses this...I don't care who the challenger is.

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