Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2014

Beaches-East York

Prediction Changed
2014-06-11 08:09:00

Constituency Profile


Johnson, Nicolas

Lindsay, Alexander

Potts, Arthur

Prue, Michael

Scott, Debra

Michael Prue


  • Pundits’ Guide – Ontario (Beaches-East York)
  • 2011 Provincial Election Prediction
  • 2011 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2008 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2007 Provincial Election Prediction

    2011 Result:

    2007 Result:

    2003 Result (redistributed):



    Put your political/campaign ad here! Replace it with your campaign ad! See sponsorship details.

    14 06 09 ME
    The NDP is now coming back from the meltdown over the letter from the 34...also the Bloomberg math on the Wynne budget showing massive cuts coming soon is making the round...the Prue name will let this riding be a hold for the ONDP...
    14 06 09 Counsel
    This riding is headed back into the NDP column. Early on, the Lib candidate, Potts, had been riding the coattails of the central party's 'progressive' messaging, but he's fallen off. In the last week ago, Toronto District Labour Council and other progressive orgs have used email & phone trees to spread word about Arthur Potts' past as an anti-union lobbyist. Also, the Judy Rebick endorsement for Michael Prue seems to have erased damaged caused by 'the letter'. The result: a lot of Liberal signs have been traded in for Michael Prue signs. My guess is that a lot of the soft Lib-NDP swing voters are also breaking for Prue.
    14 06 08 precision
    Interesting that you put this in the 'too close to call' rather than High Park, as Beaches had a higher margin of victory (12.82% to 8.78%). I can understand why every Toronto NDP seat is in jeopardy, given the low polls for the NDP across the board on the June 7 weekend (Ipsos/Ekos) in Toronto. However, I'd caution against the defeat of a 13-year MPP with strong name recognition. Are there local polls you're citing? Overall, I would be happy to have Potts, if it would mean a Liberal majority. If the Libs defeat Prue, and hold on to their seats in jeopardy (Sudbury/Windsor/Nepean), they could get a majority. But at the present time, this seems more like a wish than a well-founded prediction.
    14 06 06 Kyle Ryan
    Based on the number of Liberal lawn signs - this riding is in play.
    14 06 05 ML
    This has been a reliable provincial seat for the NDP for over 20 years but the NDP's dip in polling in the 416 has put their provincial stranglehold on this riding in jeopardy. Michael Prue is still revered by a large number of old time East Yorkers for his high-profile fight against amalgamation. However, the demographics of the riding are changing. In the north and along East Danforth there is an explosion of young families taking over the semis and bungalows of the dwindling seniors population. These new residents were still living with their parents during the Mike Harris amalgamation era. Horwath's shift to the centre will likely irk many left-leaning residents of the Upper Beaches and Beaches and who will consider Wynne as a more progressive choice and/or the best leader to stop Hudak. While the NDP's shift to pocket book issues like tax breaks on on hydro bills will do little to appeal to the Starbucks set on Queen East, it could poach some soft Conservatives in areas where the NDP historically does poorly. Notably, the north west end of the riding in pockets around Parkview Hills and Topham Park. Keep in mind the northern half of the riding voted for Ford in the municipal election. This is where Horwath's bread-and-butter policies like middle-class tax breaks could give Prue a bump and alleviate some of Prue's loss of support among left-of-centre Beaches voters. This will be a fun riding to watch!
    14 05 24 Karl
    I am relatively new to Beaches-East York but have seen a lot of elections elsewhere, either as part of campaign teams or simply through observation. If signage is anything to go by (and it is, directionally at least) there seems to be a move away from the NDP in this riding, relative to Michael Prue's onetime strength here.
    It may be gentrification bringing in new voters, and perhaps dissatisfaction among progressives with Ms. Horwath, Some of it could be union sign crews sitting on their hands. Perhaps the issues around Sandra Bussin did bit of permanent damage to the NDP in the area.
    I cycle commute up through Danforth Village and Leaside and also ride the waterfront ridings as far as Oakville, so get to see a lot of sign campaigns. While Peter Tabuns is safe for the NDP in Toronto-Danforth, I believe that both Beaches-East York and perhaps Trinity Spadina are very much in play (again for reasons of demographic change as much as anything).
    14 05 22 Alice
    Predicting a Liberal win here. NDP is hurting bad and their numbers in Toronto from all the pollsters is putting the writing on the wall.
    14 05 11 A.S.
    If it were all about 'Wynne Liberal' progressivism, the dream candidate vs Prue would have been a reoffering Helen Burstyn--unfortunately, it sounds like the local Grit team reverted to stop-the-socialist-hordes cynicism; so if we get to 'where the Liberals went wrong' postmortems, watch this space.
    14 05 11 A.S.
    If it were all about 'Wynne Liberal' progressivism, the dream candidate vs Prue would have been a reoffering Helen Burstyn--unfortunately, it sounds like the local Grit team reverted to stop-the-socialist-hordes cynicism; so if we get to 'where the Liberals went wrong' postmortems, watch this space.
    14 05 09 PragmatisTO
    The likelihood of a NDP victory in this riding (a safe bet to begin with) has gone WAY up in the wake of the Liberal's appointment of their candidate for this riding. The man they chose, Arthur Potts, though unknown in the riding, is a rather notorious industry lobbyist. He was sort of the 'poster child' for problems with lobbyists at Toronto city hall following the MFP scandal. His best known clients include the
    14 05 07 Trinity-Spadina Progressive
    I'm leaning towards Michael Prue hanging on, but if he does it will because of his personal popularity and incumbent advantage, not Andrea Horwath. However I think 'Kathleen Wynne Liberalism' plays well in the Beaches and a lot of Prue's old base in East York has evaporated. A Liberal upset is possible.
    14 05 04 monkey
    Generally a progressive riding so if the progressive vote coalesces around the Liberals it could make things closer, but considering it is highly unlikely the Liberals will get a majority never mind offer as left wing a budget as they did and the PCs are not a factor here, this should stay NDP.
    13 08 05 Not Non-Partisan
    I'm still not convinced that Michael Prue is running in the next round, although history says that the n'dippers would prefer to see their members leave mid-term so they can concentrate their resources in a by-election. If he doesn't run, City Councillor Janet Davis would be the likely candidate. She is a) much more abrasive than Prue, b) much more ideological, and c) East York-centric and has little current traction in the Beach.
    While the NDP would still hold an advantage, it would be significantly less than now.
    13 07 26 Art
    If the by-elections come down hard on the Liberals....... the Toronto core NDP might get some comfort out of that and the electorate might carry that head of angry steam into a general election. NDP base might even expand in Toronto.
    13 04 17
    Reliably NDP. No Liberal swing in Toronto will knock this one out of the NDP's column. Mr. Prue will be re-elected.
    13 02 28 seasaw
    This is a riding which has always voted NDP. It went NDP even when their seat count didn't even reach double digit. Nothing'll change.

    Navigate to Ontario 2014 Home | Regional Index | Submission

    Ontario Provincial Election - 2014
    Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com
    © Justice Quest Communications, 1999-2014 - Email Webmaster