Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2014


Prediction Changed
2014-06-11 19:13:00

Constituency Profile


Burton, Jamie

Danckert, Stacey

Fife, Catherine

Weiler, Tracey

Catherine Fife


  • Pundits’ Guide – Ontario (Kitchener-Waterloo)
  • 2011 Provincial Election Prediction
  • 2011 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2008 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2007 Provincial Election Prediction

    2011 Result:

    2007 Result:

    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    14 06 10 Todd
    Since this website is run out of Wilfred Laurier University, I wonder why the researchers haven't stepped outside and looked around their riding. I did another sign poll yesterday across central and west KW and found the following number of signs on private property: Fife - 32; Weiler - 10; Burton - 5; green candidate - 4. Most of the Fife signs were located in central Waterloo, but she was even with Weiler in the Beechwood area. The WLU area is surrounded by Fife signs.
    14 06 09 R White
    Witmer was a red tory and i expect the by-election result was a message that the Liberals needed to be more cooperative and compromising to be trusted with power. They Layton factor may also be at play here.
    I suspect that since the PC's are sticking with their candidate and not circling their conestoga wagons, they feel they got a winner.
    14 06 09 therealbatman
    Fife won by a comfortable 3500 or so in her by-election. She should hold this, but look for her margin to get a little tighter.
    14 06 09 ME
    The Mary Allen area is full of Fife signs...and she has a 10 point lead over the Tory candidate according to local polls..The Fife win in the by-election and her well organized ground will prove the difference..NDP hold..
    14 06 07 Toronto Star/Forum Poll
    Kitchener-Waterloo (polled Monday, 604 people, accurate to within 4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20) Liberal Jamie Burton 35 per cent, New Democrat Catherine Fife 33 per cent, Progressive Conservative Tracey Weiler 24 per cent, Green Stacey Danckert 7 per cent.
    14 06 07 Todd
    Not sure why this one is still considered too close to call. Fife has a comfortable lead in private property lawn signs. I counted 13 of her signs to 2 for the green candidate driving around central Waterloo yesterday. I know there are more Weiler signs around in other neighbourhoods, but even in conservative areas of this riding (Westmount for example) you will find Fife signs. The Liberal won't even be in the picture.
    14 06 02 Dave
    The battle here is between Catherine and Tracey. The Liberals will finish third again. Without the massive wave of union e-day volunteers Fife enjoyed during the previous by-election I suspect she'll be hard pressed to keep her numbers.
    Despite other comments below, the Liberals are non-competitors. They have fielded a no name candidate and the left winged vote is split in this riding.
    Expect Weiler to sneak out a slim win here with a determined conservative vote.
    14 06 01 A.S.
    Y'know...the K-W byelection was proof that the dynamics of election predictioneering in Ontario are far more fascinating than many an armchair Nate Silver can even imagine. And I even foresaw the end result, or allowed for it to happen...even though a lot of people were reading into the 2011 fed-prov results that this was an NDP no-hoper, too affluent, high-tech, yuppie, what have you. In fact, I (correctly) saw the NDP support as less naturally weak than 'suppressed'--federally by Liberal support plumped by the strategic Telegdi factor; and provincially perhaps by Telegdian assumptions being grandfathered downward. And of course, the fact that it was a longstanding provincial *PC* riding--with Witmer first elected against the grain of the Rae landslide, to boot (though even *that* was a 'complicated' matter, w/Witmer benefitting from the foundation of a credible 1987 run)--was a further psychological boost of NDP-no-hope common wisdom. But between the lines, a true master of the art of psephology could see something like Fife's potential victory coming (taking into account, above all, Fife's own competitive--well, by Hampton-era NDP standards--2007 bid for the same seat). And, by Gosh, it happened. With all that in mind, I definitely wouldn't say Fife's invulnerable--it's still too 'atypical' a seat for the NDP; but that's not the same as saying that the NDP had no business winning here in the first place; this isn't Etobicoke Centre or Nepean-Carleton or anything...
    14 05 30 seasaw
    Alice keeps predicting Liberal a lot, but predicting Liberal in this riding this time? The beating they took in the by election here along with even bigger beating they took in 2 other riding in SW Ontario, makes a Liberal prediction here a bit of a wishful thinking. The PC's have a better shot but they won't win, if you read my previuos comment you'll know that this riding has only kicked out one incumbent, and that was by only 12 votes. Also, he'd been serving for 15 years. No chance of that happening to Catherine Fife.
    14 05 30 seasaw
    Alice keeps predicting Liberal a lot, but predicting Liberal in this riding this time ? The beating they took in the by election here along with even bigger beating they took in 2 other riding in SW Ontario, makes a Liberal prediction here a bit of a wishful thinking. The PC's have a better shot but they won't win, if you read my previuos comment you'll know that this riding has only kicked out one incumbent, and that was by only 12 votes. Also, he'd been serving for 15 years. No chance of that happening to Catherine Fife.
    14 05 28 jeff316
    Fife's win was a message that McGuinty should not have a majority but that Hudak shouldn't take this riding for granted. It was not a nod to the NDP. The PCs are just too strong locally and regionally to let the NDP take this one again. Which is too bad, because of all of the NDP's recent by-election MPPs, Fife is by far the best and is heads and shoulders above her two main competitors here..
    14 05 27 K McIntyre
    The platforms and the leaders of all three major parties are so underwhelming that I think individual candidate popularity will weigh more heavily in this election than most. Catherine Fife has the incumbent advantage, and even aside from that would be the most qualified due to her time as Chair of the local school board. The Liberals are fielding a candidate who was a VP of local company and the PC candidate is even less qualified.
    14 05 25 Karl Morant
    There are loads and loads of Tracy Weiler PC lawn signs everywhere. I think the NDP bi-election win caught everyone off guard and the PCs have rallied hard to get the riding back. I see so few Liberal or NDP lawn signs, I expect the PCs will take it easily. Any prediction of a three way race is nonsense.
    14 05 22 Alice
    This is indeed a three-way race. Its going to be as close as the by-election was 'supposed' to be. Liberals are back in play here and I'm predicting they win the riding by the smallest of margins.
    14 05 21 Marco Ricci
    According to The Record, Kitchener-Waterloo is indeed a 3-way race, and perhaps the only one of its kind in the province.
    14 05 19 LFC Ottawa
    This is a true three way race. The NDP will struggle at getting vote out, as they no longer have the 'stop a McGuinty majority' card to play. As in most three way races, sadly the PC's come out on top by a point.
    14 05 14 OgtheDim
    There were a lot of teachers who supported Fife the last time around. But there was not as much risk then. Now, in a general election, with a direct attack on teachers by Hudak, will the coalition of support that Fife got be maintained?
    I'm not so sure.
    14 05 12 Dr Bear
    Without a doubt, this was a Witmer riding and not a PC riding. Now that she's gone, Liberal support is evaporating in SW Ontario and the NDP is ahead in the region, I think the NDP will hold on to this riding. Progressive voters will likely toss their lot for Fife to prevent a PC victory. It also helps that Fife has been a good constituency MPP. The Liberals will be focused elsewhere
    14 05 09 NathanH
    Despite strong constituent work by Catherine Fife, this riding will be won by the PCs. Tracy Weiler has canvassed extensively over the past year and has been highly visible at community events. Her campaign is run by a well known and competent manager and she has a large pool of volunteers. The Liberals will place third, as in the by-election.
    14 05 08 Mark R
    NDP hold for a lot of reasons: history, NDP puts resources into ridings they already have established a strong presence and most notably - people in this riding typically choose the candidate over the party - Fife is well known and respected as was her predecessor - Elizabeth Witmer.
    14 05 04 KS
    NDP hold. They won the by-election in a comfortably and are well organized here. Horwath has been visiting the Waterloo region often.
    The riding remained in PC hands for over two decades because of the popularity of the centrist Elizabeth Witmer. I suspect the PCs will finish third in this riding.
    The Liberals will be the main threat to the incumbent and will finish a close second. Wynne has been pumping in hundreds of millions of dollars in investment in the region. Demographically speaking, this is an ideal Liberal riding.
    13 11 15 Impartial Observer in Berlin
    If an election is held any time soon, it will be a narrow PC victory over the Liberals, with Fife some ways behind. A general sentiment in the riding during the byelection was disappointment with Witmer
    13 06 06 AD
    Something I don't think the person posting before me has taken into account is that people voted in the by-election for Catherine, not necessarily the NDP. To me she's the obvious candidate with the greatest odds of winning in this riding as she is popular in the riding, having crushed a local election for school board trustee and winning the by-election. That and the incumbency advantage should make this a pretty strong run for the NDP. Even if the NDP fronts less money, she'll still be buoyed by strong name recognition and respect from the community. I live in this riding and this seems pretty clear to me, though the race could be competitive against the Cons. I honestly don't see how the liberals have a horse in this particular race.
    13 05 12 Politically Correct
    The unions bought the by election and now they have completely abandoned the NDP. This will be a two way race between the Liberals and the Conservatives, with Weiler pulling out a narrow win. Fife will be a distant third as her support was manufactured and not real.
    13 02 10 LFC Ottawa
    They won the by-election, and Horwath's team will likely focus on getting Fife re elected here.
    13 02 27 seasaw
    Based on past history, Catherine Fife should hang on to this riding. Parts of this riding, have NDP history federally back when Max Saltsman was the MP. The more important reason, however, is that this riding rarely votes an incumbent out. Saltsman and MacLean ( federally ) and Ed Good, Herb Epp and Elizabeth Witmer ( provicially )all served until their retirement. The only incumbent to lose was Andrew Telegdi in '08 and he lost due to a gaffe and by only 16 votes. So, based on this fact, regardless of who forms the next government, Fife should win.

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