Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2014

Kitchener-Conestoga


Prediction Changed
2013-03-11 22:14:00
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Harris, Michael

Schumm, David

Villeneuve, James

Weber, David

Wright, Wayne

Incumbent:
Michael Harris

Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide – Ontario (Kitchener-Conestoga)
  • 2011 Provincial Election Prediction
  • 2011 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2008 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2007 Provincial Election Prediction


    2011 Result:

    MICHAEL HARRIS
    1801744.18%
    * LEEANNA PENDERGAST
    1447635.5%
    MARK CAIRNS
    716517.57%
    ROBERT ROSE
    11212.75%
    2007 Result:
    LEEANNA PENDERGAST
    16,31541.82%
    MICHAEL HARRIS
    14,45037.04%
    MARK CAIRNS
    4,54511.65%
    COLIN JONES
    2,8057.19%
    LEN SOLOMON
    5101.31%
    LARRY STEVENS
    2460.63%
    DAVID DRIVER
    1450.37%

    2003 Result (redistributed):

    1335039.79%
    1438242.87%
    393711.73%


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    14 06 10 A.S.
    99.231.139.81
    I just can't help seeing the name 'Mike Harris' and thinking it must be a troll (federal equivalent: Candice Bergen over in Manitoba). As alluded to in the seat name, it's Waterloo Region's Mennonite-inflected countryside that lends the impression of a perfect PC hold--but remember: it was Lib for one term before Harris finally conquered. The counteracting factor being Kitchener's southern suburbs--a lot of which have a strong 'Horwath suburbia' latency about them; which also suggests that, yeah, you guessed it, split opposition letting a Tory through easily this time. (And maybe even the only Tory seat left in Waterloo Region, when all is said and done.)
    14 06 07 Todd
    99.236.249.141
    I don't think this one will even be close. I can't even remember the other candidates names and I live in this riding. Harris by a long shot.
    14 06 02 Dave
    99.255.48.80
    Harris will retain his seat. He's a solid constituency MPP, speaks well and I suspect he'll make it into the Hudak cabinet if the Conservatives form government.
    Liberal signs are scarce on private properties (Winterburn being the only stronghold).
    14 05 27 Steve
    70.53.72.120
    I just cant see Mike Harris taking this seat again. Hudak's plan has upset way to many people and Mike has not done much of anything, he only shows up at events long enough to tweet a photo then he is gone. He won the seat because so many people were upset at the incumbent back in 2011. I believe the liberal candidate is much stronger and will take this one.
    14 05 22 Alice
    67.70.86.233
    If the Liberals win as big as they did in 2007 then they can win this seat. Unless that happens Michael Harris is going back to Queen's Park. I predict the PCs to keep the seat.
    14 05 14 Steve Fraser
    142.156.1.223
    Not sure if anyone is aware that the liberal candidate, Wayne Wright is both a college professor and a tradesperson himself. I believe that he is enjoying a rise in popularity and will put up a hard fight for this riding. Don't be to quick to hand this win to the PC right away.
    14 05 13 Luigi21
    209.197.158.75
    Unfortunately the far weaker of the 2 NDP candidates won the nomination. James Villeneuve has no infrastructure and his only experience comes from his time as a union boss. With the loss of Lorne Bruce the NDP have lost any hope of picking up this riding. Once again Michael Harris will swoop to victory.
    14 05 12 Dr Bear
    69.172.81.45
    I'm thinking this could be a surprise with the PCs focusing hard on the other two Kitchener ridings and neglecting here. If compelled to call it now, I'd say PC but I'm going to keep a watch on this one.
    14 05 05 Luigi21
    209.197.144.53
    The thing about this riding is the PCs will take it for granted, they are assuming the will pull off an automatic victory. They are going to put all their effort into Kitchener Waterloo. In addition neither Hudak or Harris are overly popular. The way this riding goes will all depend on who wins the NDP nomination.
    14 05 05 Luigi21
    209.197.144.53
    The thing about this riding is the PCs will take it for granted, they are assuming the will pull off an automatic victory. They are going to put all their effort into Kitchener Waterloo. In addition neither Hudak or Harris are overly popular. The way this riding goes will all depend on who wins the NDP nomination.
    14 05 04 monkey
    174.114.16.226
    This is a mixed riding being half rural where the PCs have a strong lead and half in Kitchener where the Liberals and PCs are neck and neck. Even if the Liberals pull ahead in Kitchener, their deficit in the rural portions will be too big too overcome.
    13 02 28 seasaw
    99.225.1.213
    This riding is the most conservative of Kitchener ridings. The last time Harris won by a slim margin in spite of a terrible central campaign. He should win comfortably this time, unless of course Hudak runs a campaign similar to his last, in which case he will win by a similar margin. Either way he'll win.



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