Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2014

Kitchener Centre

Prediction Changed
2014-06-07 22:55:00

Constituency Profile


Bernier, Patrick

Johnston, Margaret

Smith, Ronnie

Vernile, Daiene

Wettlaufer, Wayne

John Milloy


  • Pundits’ Guide – Ontario (Kitchener Centre)
  • 2011 Provincial Election Prediction
  • 2011 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2008 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2007 Provincial Election Prediction

    2011 Result:

    2007 Result:

    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    14 06 08 Nathan H
    This is as close as it gets but two factors seem at play; (1) John Milloy is not on the ballot and (2) his replacement is simply 'rubbing people the wrong way. vernile appears somewhat mean-spirited on the stump and Wettlaufer, a likeable former MPP is stepping up his visibility. with a decent showing from the NDP... I call it for the Conservatives.
    14 06 07 Todd
    After the riding debate Daiene Vernile signs have started popping up on private property all over the place. I thought this would be a toss-up as Wettlaufer was MPP for this riding before Milloy, but Vernile seems to be ahead.
    14 06 02 Dave
    This certainly is a bellwether riding. With three strong local candidates representing the main parties, the Conservatives have the edge. Milloy's absence will diminish some of the Liberal numbers mostly to Johnston and the NDP.
    Despite her 'star' aspect, Vernile has been lured by several people to run for various parties in the past. She got smoked by a great and valid zinger in a recent debate regarding being in it for herself.
    Wettlaufer isn't exactly cabinet material but he has the name recognition. With a strong Conservative vote and a good showing by the NDP, I expect the Conservatives will take this riding.
    14 06 01 A.S.
    For whatever talk that Kitchener-Waterloo is poised to be the tightest 3-way in Ontario, don't be surprised if Kitchener Centre turns out even *tighter*--that is, presuming that Johnston's riding the Cat Fife bandwagon--OTOH, there's also the possibility that said bandwagon resources might be empty-net withdrawn in order to save Cat Fife's electoral hide. So, things might look good for the NDP; then again, things might *not* look so good. Otherwise, it's pure belwether. (And despite his Queen's Park experience, don't bet the farm on Wettlaufer...yet.)
    14 05 28 R.O.
    I don't want to be the poster that disagrees with every prediction but its not clear to me why this riding was moved to liberal from tctc . it was very close in 2011 and popular liberal mpp John Milloy isn't even running again . The ont pc's and ndp are targeting this riding and both though they had a chance to win it at start of this election . liberals have also lost ground in south western ontario since 2011 losing several seats in by elections and only getting 24 % of the vote in Kitchener Waterloo by election . the pc candidate Wayne Wettlaufer is also a former mpp for the riding who did get elected in this city during the 90's provincially . it was so close here is 2011 I'd have to think this riding is going to go down to the end this election before its clear who is winning it.
    14 05 23 AD
    This riding does tend to swing liberal. But i think the loss of the incumbent, and the drop in popularity of the LPO in SW ontario will be just enough for the PC candidate to swing out over the Liberal and NDP candidates.
    14 05 22 Alice
    This race is going to be as tight as it was in 2011 but I'm predicting the Liberals win here. I consider this a bellwether riding this time around. Whoever wins the election is going to win Kitchener Centre.
    14 05 17 PR
    There are clearly more Wayne Wettlaufer signs than all of the other parties combined. He is very well liked in Kitchener especially among the German community which make up a large percentage of the riding.
    14 05 16 Harlen B
    Had to laugh at the comment suggesting Wettlaufer is off to a slow start. PCs have more private property signs up and more legal signs in regional roads then the Liberals. Sounds to me like Nathan's post is a Liberal supporter trying to spin their chances.
    14 05 09 NathanH
    The Wettlaufer campaign is getting off to a slow start. The HQ is deserted, the volunteers scarce and the candidate no where to be seen. Despite a PC trend, this seat will remain Liberal unless a major campaign rework by the PCs takes place.
    14 05 06 Numbers Pundit
    Kitchener-Centre is remarkable in that of all seats in Waterloo Region it is the likeliest to go with the trends as Kitchener-Waterloo and Cambridge generally buck them. Since 1985 the seat has gone with the governing party every time. In 2011, John Milloy, the Oxford educated, former communications advisor to former PM Jean Chr
    14 05 04 seasaw
    With John Milloy gone, this one got even more interesting. The PC's were close the last time around. They're in a good position to win this time. The Liberals though, can't be counted out just yet. This riding has strong Liberal traditions, they've held this riding for most of the past 50 years, and are going to be tough to beat this time around as well.
    13 02 20 seasaw
    This one is difficult to call at this time. Last time it went right down the wire, had the Tories ran just a slightly better campaign, they would've taken this. Expect another close race, that is if things stay the same, but anything can happen. Milloy is better organized here, so he always has a good shot.

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