Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2014

Kenora-Rainy River

Prediction Changed
2013-02-13 18:35:00

Constituency Profile


Campbell, Sarah

Leek, Anthony

McKillop, Tim

Nickle, Randolph

Sarah Campbell


  • Pundits’ Guide – Ontario (Kenora-Rainy River)
  • 2011 Provincial Election Prediction
  • 2011 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2008 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2007 Provincial Election Prediction

    2011 Result:

    2007 Result:

    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    14 06 11 A.S.
    I'm not all *that* surprised that the NDP lead over the Tories has apparently expanded rather than contracted--2011's case being skewed by open-seat + federal Rickford-coattails chomping-at-the-bit circumstances; let's remember that Rickford being there and so safe at all is a bit of a chain-reaction happenstance from the federal Cons' 2006 second-place bragging-rights; had things tipped a different way, Kenora might be NDP federally as provincially. And, of course, there's the Hudak being AWOL at the Northern debate to consider; plus Leek looking less marginal than in 2011. So this time, maybe, more of an 'opposition split' thing working in Campbell's favour--and hey, wayyyyy out here, the urban-left whining over the 'Fordwath' platform is just faint, remote white noise...
    14 06 05 NJam101
    A Forum Research poll released last week in this electoral district shows 47% for Campbell, 32% for Nickle, 18% for Leek and 3% for other.
    Link: http://www.forumresearch.com/forms/News%20Archives/News%20Releases/51902_ON_Kenora-Rainy_River_Crosstabs_%282014.05.27%29_Forum_Research.pdf
    Yes, this area is conservative federally and yes there is influence from Manitoba BUT it has a large first nations population and NDP support has fallen very little considering the NDP MPP is not the party leader like when Howard Hampton was MPP here. I'm betting that the PC candidate Nickle will win most of the polls in Kenora but that Campbell will win pretty much everywhere else and with about 45% of the total votes.
    The PC candidate came quite close to winning in 1995 in the former Rainy River riding. This was when Harris won his first majority. NDP Howard Hampton had 40% while PC candidate (and now Senator) Lynn Beyak received 38% of the votes. Beyak didn't do nearly as well in the 1999 election. If Hudak was headed towards a large majority then I'd say likely PC but that is not the case.
    14 05 29 kenora man
    Sarah Campbell can't run on Howards coat tails this election. Randy is very well known in the riding. It will be close but am predicting a Randy Nickle win. This will be because of him and the central campaign will do little to help him.
    14 05 20 Martin
    Looks like Nickel got hold on this riding. Campbell has done absolutely nothing for 4 yrs. Leek will improve his standing but needs more time.
    14 05 19 nesooite
    More aligned with Manitoba or Saskatchewan rather than Ontario. This will be an old fashioned Conservative NDP prairie battle. Campbell is not Hampton. This plus the fact that the Conservatives hold this riding federally and Nickle is a pretty good candidate will put this as a squeaker in the PC column.
    14 05 14 Dave
    Sarah Campbell has been making a lot of noise since she was first elected. I think her hard work will pay off in a re-election. She has been pushing the energy cost issue relentlessly and Leek will have a tough time defending the Liberal record in the eyes of folks here.
    I don't see the PC's making any ground here.
    14 05 06 North rover
    This riding is too close to call. NDP incumbent Sarah Campbell has failed to build on her predecessor's popularity. PC Randy Nickle will be burdened with the image of Tim Hudak. Liberal Anthony Leek will likely improve his vote-share over 2011, having gained more campaign experience and clear support from Kathleen Wynne. She has visited the riding three times in recent years. Leek might surprise us if the campaign turns in her (and his) direction.
    14 05 04 monkey
    Last time around, the PCs had a good shot at winning here, but now with the incumbency factor, which is quite important in Northern Ontario, I suspect the NDP will hold this. Also the Tories partly won here federally due to the unpopularity of the gun registry which is not an issue in the provincial election like it was federally.
    14 05 03 Teddy Boragina
    Keep an eye on the Tories in this riding. For reasons I can not fully explain, right-wing candidates have been doing better and better in every election in the past 2 decades in Northern Ontario.
    13 09 07 Northlander
    This riding is becoming a three-way race. Sarah Campbell has disappointed constituents by alienating provincial decision-makers with her nasty politics and achieving little for the riding. Randy Nickle is a good man but is destined to fall victim to Tea Party Tim Hudak's control machine in the next election. Anthony Leek has rebuilt the Liberal organization and has the potential to run neck and neck with the other candidates.
    13 02 11 JB
    In the 2011 election, this riding was a bit of a question mark because former long-time NDP leader Howard Hampton chose to retire. Yet Sarah Campbell still managed to garner almost 50% of the vote. She

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