Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2014


Prediction Changed
2014-05-03 22:33:00

Constituency Profile


Johnstone, Jan

Maister, Max

Schenk, Colleen

Thompson, Lisa

Valenta, Dennis

Werstine, Adam

Zettel, Andrew

Lisa Thompson


  • Pundits’ Guide – Ontario (Huron-Bruce)
  • 2011 Provincial Election Prediction
  • 2011 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2008 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2007 Provincial Election Prediction

    2011 Result:

    2007 Result:

    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    14 06 01 I live here
    A.S It is interesting to see that you comment on numerous ridings throughout Ontario in this project. Usually you predict an NDP win or a fantasy surge in NDP support for a backdoor win. I actually live and work in Huron-Bruce and I will be surprised if you do.
    I agree with the source of your background information. Murray Elston was a very good MPP back in the 1980's. I also agree that Grant Robertson likely gave the NDP their best shot at a victory but still topped out at only 20% of the votes.
    But.... their names are not on the ballot.
    If you check the left side of the page you will see that the Liberals and PC's have consistently shared 75% of the votes each election. When the NDP only get 13-20% of the votes it doesn't matter how many polls they almost win.
    The uptick in NDP votes for the last election was largely at the expense of the Green Party and the smaller parties. This election those swing votes may return to the Green Party as the NDP candidate has not come out against the nuclear waste repository plan but publicly announced that she had attended an anti wind fund raiser. The Family Coalition candidate also speaks very well at the debates and may be a protest vote alternative. The people are still very angry at the Liberals for wasting our money so it looks like a PC victory.
    14 05 27 A.S.
    If one were to divide SW Ontario rural-heartland seats btw/ 'chance' and 'no chance' for non-PC victory, this falls under 'chance'--Murray Elston moderation never really left the place--though whether a former *federal* PC candidate is how to do it is another question. Which may allow 'only true alternative' faint-hope wiggle room for the NDP, which has been laying left-field (in every sense of the term) claims here over many a Grant Robertson run. (BTW it's worth noting that while Robertson's provincial share fell from his federal share in 2011, thanks to a more evenly balanced provincial Tory-Grit split he was actually more 'efficient' in poll wins and near-wins. Similar phenomena was apparent in other locales like Barrie as well.)
    14 05 08 Numbers Pundit
    The ongoing wind-turbine protest finds fertile ground in this riding and the general anti-Liberal sentiment in rural locales is manifested quite strongly in mid-western Ontario. That said, Thompson by no means 'trounced' Carol Mitchell in 2011; 42% of the popular vote should give little comfort to any incumbent. Thompson would've likely crossed the 50% threshold had Hudak's campaign not floundered. She should have little trouble securing re-election and has been one of the PC caucus' most aggressive fundraising MPPs. Assisted by a giant employer such as Bruce Nuclear and its well-paid and highly taxed 3200 employees, most of whom reside in the constituency, methinks the Liberals and NDP may end up finishing in vote totals rather close to one another. Federally the populist Grit MP Paul Stckle was the only surviving Liberal in the area in 2004 and 2006 before being finally defeated by Tory Ben Lobb in 2008. Lobb bested his result of 44% by adding 10% in 2011. The test will be if Thompson can emulate her federal counterpart.
    14 05 05 Observer
    This riding should be easily retained by Lisa Thompson and the P.C. Party. The Liberals are putting forward Colleen Schenk, who ran federally under the P.C. banner in 1997. Running a candidate that is more to the right is perhaps a strategy to sway some blue Liberals back into the fold.
    That said, there's still enormous resentment in rural Ontario towards the Liberals, and the NDP carry the stigma of being anti-nuclear, which is a death-knell in this Bruce Power riding.
    I think this will be a Thompson win, perhaps breaking the 50% barrier.
    14 05 04 monkey
    A largely rural riding where the Liberals are extremely unpopular and where the opposition to wind turbines is strong, I suspect the PCs whatever difficulties they may have faced in past elections will easily take this one.
    13 04 04 Keen Observer
    Lisa Thompson has championed the anti wind turbine crusade in this riding. It plays well with the locals. watch for a bigger margin of victory for her this time.
    13 03 03 LFC Ottawa
    Lisa Thompson easily defeated a Liberal minister last time on the wind issue, and she will easily be re-elected.
    13 03 02 seasaw
    Why should this one be too close to call ? It goes like this, premier Wynne has also taken on the job of Agriculture Minister. In '11 the Liberals lost nearly all rural seats, they would like to win them back. Premier Wynne has a strategy that might work, and if it does this one has a good chance of going Liberal. For many years, this riding was represented by Murray Elston. Whether the Premier's strategy will work or not, remains to be seen.

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