14 06 10	A.S. 99.231.139.81
Actually, contrary to what dear prognosticator claims, U of Guelph casts a *longer* electoral nuclear shadow here than UWO does in LNC--there's a reason why this stayed federally Liberal in 2011, and LNC didn't, and it's *not* just about tenured elites. Remember: we're talking about an institution that grew out of an agricultural college and has seeded a certain green/enviro-friendly mood in the local air. It explains above-average strength for the Greens and/or the NDP (whose united strength would have won federally in 2008); it explains why Toryism has tended to be Red Toryism; and it explains why the Liberals are currently the convenient catchall for all those tendencies. And the fact that the PCs' present demeanor is anything but Red Tory actually *hurts* them here--given Schreiner's candidacy and the NDP running the same candidate that did well for them provincially in 2011, who knows if the Tories will be driven to *fourth* (yeah, I know, unlikely, but). It's largely the Schreiner factor, and how it alludes to current Green logic that it's best to superconcentrate on a single seat a la Elizabeth May, that prevents me from actually handing Guelph to the Liberals here and now--but that's exactly how they win here: skimming off the best of everyone else, and luckily enough Guelph has a Grit-compatible 'everyone else'...
	14 06 02	Mike M. 24.150.35.155
Drove through Guelph recently and was impressed by the number of signs up for Green Party leader, Mike Schreiner. If the lawn signs are a true reflection of public opinion there, I would say that this one is too close to call. If I lived in Guelph, I would vote for Schreiner. I think it's wrong to exclude him from the June 3 leader's debate.
	14 06 02	prognosticator15 99.249.1.185
I agree the Greens will do well here, due to a strong Green streak on campus and their leader running, but their vote also has a ceiling, even if they do here better than anywhere else, as they have too many voters to convince. It is hard to put a number to it, but my guess is a quarter of the voters is the very highest they can reach, even with the best of campaigns, giving an opportunity, and even this number is not likely. Even among campus-connected voters, most Liberals are not likely to switch to the Greens because Liberal rather than Green vote here is the vote of the privileged state-funded, opinion-controlling and perks-supported University establishment, at least today. Also, the University is not as dominant here as in some ridings with larger campuses (for example, in London North Center). Off-campus, the Greens are still weak, and the fight is between the three traditional parties. Sandalz is not stronger than her party, with appeal very limited beyond those who voted for her already last time. I predict she loses some voters, and they go in all directions creating an opening for an NDP and the Greens, but the PCs have the greatest potential since many of the Sandals voters are marginal, and also moderate, choosing between the established options rather than supporting Green ideologies in response to Liberal scandals. PC candidate has a name. Some suggest Michael Sona scandal and trial may affect provincial PCs by attribution, but concentrating on it too much can backfire as well. Of course, the election is about probabilities, and much will depend on whether the PCs manage to attract many 'angry' voters. One issue to remember is that 'angry' voters are mostly potential marginal PC voters that want to replace the Liberals in power for mismanagement, so if the turnout is low, this year it is better for the Liberals, with some opening remaining for the NDP and the Greens, but if the PCs manage to attract those who often stay home and the turnout is higher, they will be the likeliest to take the riding this time, and I want to think the interest in election goes up between now and the 12th of June, hence my prediction here.
	14 05 29	Teddy Boragina 198.96.35.90
Lets be honest, this website does not have the best track record at calling Green wins. Both times a Green has won in the past few years the site said they'd lose. However, reading those ridings it was clear there were a large number of green predictions from a number of people, including those within the riding. That's what I'm not seeing here. For that reason, and the fact that this election is widely seen as a horse race where every vote counts - something neither of those past two were - I'm making this as a Liberal win.
	14 05 27	AndrewK 67.244.83.252
This is obviously the great Green hope and they clearly could have a bit of a chance. The problem with the Elizabeth May precedent is that she was a much more significant figure than Mike Schreiner. She had a national profile after her debate participation. She also ran against a Tory who had traditionally won on the vote splits, so that the progressive voters coalesced behind her to beat him. Schreiner is running against a Liberal incumbent cabinet minister, so most Liberals aren't likely to defect to him. Picking up many NDP voters will be tough given the effort that party is putting into Southwest. Altogether, it means Sandals should win without too much trouble.
	14 05 27	seasaw 99.224.211.188
This one is too early to call. Marco Ricci is right about the point he makes about the Green leader running here, Mike Schreiner does not have the same name recognition and exposure as Elizabeth May. Many people however, call this Liberal because the Federal Liberals won here, but the Federal candidate was Frank Valeriote, and a Valeriote in Guelph is like a Kennedy in Massachussets, the fact that he was endorsed by several high profile Tories, including one long time former MP and a Mulroney era cabinet minister didn't hurt his chances either. Also, the MP and MPP from this riding have been from different parties in 72 of the last 100 years. That being said, Sandals is still in the drivers seat here, she's got experience and name recognition, plus she's the only candidate who can lose every last polling station and still win the election because here support is spread out, while other candidates can be strong in one section, but have very little support elsewhere.
	14 05 18	Marco Ricci 99.241.63.7
A couple more points on the issue of the Green vote here. Teddy Boragina mentioned below that the Greens in Canada have now elected an MP and an MLA. That's true - but look at *where* they have been elected - British Columbia. Both Elizabeth May and Andrew Weaver were able to get elected, but only by doing so in the Victoria/Vancouver area, because that is where the heart of the environmental movement is. While there are clusters of support in Ontario, in order to win a seat in this province there would need to be a much bigger swing to the Greens and they would need a leader who has the profile of Elizabeth May. It also takes a huge concentration of resources and a large number of volunteers for the Greens to win a riding. If you click on the 2008 Federal election link on this site for Guelph, you will see a lot of people predicted a Green win then, but they only finished 3rd. Also, if the Green vote goes up in Ontario, it often does so at the expense of more than one party. It could end up taking away NDP and PC votes, and helping the Liberals here.
	14 05 17	Paul 99.229.84.158
Let's be honest here. It is 2 party race. Green's & Liberals. Both the PC's and NDP have their core supporters and will vote that way not matter what, but there is a large group of voters that are open to the idea of something different, something new and something refreshing. Whether it is enough to put Mike over the top will remain to be seen. However, if nothing else, it does make Guelph a riding to closely watch come election night.
	14 05 16	Art 174.95.58.142
Guelph is one of those university town ridings, like Ottawa Centre, KW ridings, London North Centre and London West and Windsor ridings where the student vote has left town and returned to home base. This throws the deck of cards up in the air.......... This one will go with the government.
	14 05 16	Adam T 198.96.85.105
People have long labelled Guelph a bell-weather riding, aka. people who vote for winners. However, with the riding basically 100% urban, its clear left-of-centre voters control the agenda here. So even with the PC's gaining momentum and now with a decent shot at forming a majority, this will stay red. I see her taking about 35% of the vote.
	14 05 13	Dr Bear 67.204.45.89
I agree with Gone Fishing that a Green win here is ridiculous, but I also think dredging up George Drew is just as ridiculous. Had I head of him? No, and with good reason, since his term as Premier ended 2 years before my grandparents were married and 44 years before I was old enough to vote. Guelph has changed since then...like...a lot! But moving into the 1990's, yes, Brenda Elliot did win for the PCs but there are number of factors that need to be considered. First, she won Guelph-Wellington, which contained the far more PC-friendly rural hinterland. Without that, PC fortunes are significantly reduced. Second, the PC won this riding when they were riding high in the Ontario polls. But wait, you say, the PC are riding high in the polls. There is one poll (the most recent) which puts the PC in majority territory. We all know one poll does not make a trend and this poll was before Hudak's brilliant we'll-create-a-million-jobs-by-firing-a-hundred-thousand-public-sector-employees plan. I'm waiting for polls that sampled after that announcement before I start predicting a PC government (let alone a majority). Because with Guelph University being a major employer in town, I'm sure that's not going to go over too well. Third, Liberal support has dropped across the province (expect Toronto and Ottawa) and with the level of dissatisfaction the PCs are in striking distance...but...so are the NDP. The recent byelections have shown that Liberal support, when it evaporated, ended up solidifying with the NDP. So if the Liberal vote does slip away from Liz Sandals, it could mean an NDP win instead of one for the PC. Now having said all that, I think, for the moment, that Liz still has a win coming. Both provincially and federally, all the other three parties have thrown everything at the Liberal incumbent in the last decade and the Liberals have always come out on top. It seems that Guelph has indeed become more Liberal-friendly than it was back in the 1940's.
	14 05 13	Luigi21 192.237.29.254
James Gordon was the only candidate to increase the vote count last time. We the teachers' issue here Liz Sandals will be facing a tough fight and James Gordon is the best chance that their is to beat her.
	14 05 13	Dr Bear 67.204.45.89
I agree with Gone Fishing that a Green win here is ridiculous, but I also think dredging up George Drew is just as ridiculous. Had I head of him? No, and with good reason, since his term as Premier ended 2 years before my grandparents were married and 44 years before I was old enough to vote. Guelph has changed since then...like...a lot! But moving into the 1990's, yes, Brenda Elliot did win for the PCs but there are number of factors that need to be considered. First, she won Guelph-Wellington, which contained the far more PC-friendly rural hinterland. Without that, PC fortunes are significantly reduced. Second, the PC won this riding when they were riding high in the Ontario polls. But wait, you say, the PC are riding high in the polls. There is one poll (the most recent) which puts the PC in majority territory. We all know one poll does not make a trend and this poll was before Hudak's brilliant we'll-create-a-million-jobs-by-firing-a-hundred-thousand-public-sector-employees plan. I'm waiting for polls that sampled after that announcement before I start predicting a PC government (let alone a majority). Because with Guelph University being a major employer in town, I'm sure that's not going to go over too well. Third, Liberal support has dropped across the province (expect Toronto and Ottawa) and with the level of dissatisfaction the PCs are in striking distance...but...so are the NDP. The recent byelections have shown that Liberal support, when it evaporated, ended up solidifying with the NDP. So if the Liberal vote does slip away from Liz Sandals, it could mean an NDP win instead of one for the PC. Now having said all that, I think, for the moment, that Liz still has a win coming. Both provincially and federally, all the other three parties have thrown everything at the Liberal incumbent in the last decade and the Liberals have always come out on top. It seems that Guelph has indeed become more Liberal-friendly than it was back in the 1940's.
	14 05 12	Marco Ricci 99.241.63.7
I agree with Gone Fishing that the Green Party is very unlikely to win this seat. Their best chance at winning this seat was in the 2008 Federal Election, when they finished in 3rd place. Mike Nagy captured 21% of the vote federally, but then Green support collapsed in 2011 when Nagy left, reportedly after a dispute with Elizabeth May. The Green Party has not been as strong since. In 2011, this was one of only a small number of seats to vote Liberal federally, and MP Frank Valeriote actually increased his margin of victory. This of course is also the riding that has become infamous in the robocalls scandal and the Michael Sona court case. Perhaps some of that negative effect could spill over and hurt the provincial PC's - it's hard to say. It's also possible that the PC's could narrow the gap here and that Liz Sandals could win for the Liberals, but with a narrower margin than last time. For now I will say a win for Sandals, but with a smaller vote than in 2011.
	14 05 10	Gone Fishing 99.249.87.167
I am getting really tired of people going on about the Green party winning seats. That is ridiculous. Guelph is my home town and yes it is a Liberal town last while but it is not a liberal bastion. You may have heard of George Drew, he was a pretty popular PC premier from the area. it was also conservative enough to elect PC MPPs under a fellow named Mike Harris. It was conservative the last time any party won 50% of the vote so please spare me the this is a Liberal town falsifications. Guelph is a smaller city with lots of blue collar (often PC), it's surrounded by rural (mainly PC) and other cities that have gone conservative so saying it is not likely to turn simply because the incumbent is a liberal is nuts. My current belief is too close to call would be a blessing for team blue but it's not a riding that can't change. SO just assuming you buy into the idea that another Elizabeth May like result can occur just because a leader is running there. The greens are not the same force in Ontario that they are nationally and that said, other than Lizard breath beating the drum Ottawa ain't exactly chomping for more greens.
	14 05 07	ABCPredictor 24.204.197.191
The Green Party leader is running here, and if they focus enough resources and volunteers to run a good campaign and get out the vote, then it may well work. Liz Sandals has lost popularity big time. Guelph is not right enough to support Hudak, and it seems the NDP are out of good ideas.
	14 05 06	Numbers Pundit 209.239.28.137
Probably the only seat from Windsor to Halton region that isn't even notionally vulnerable. The Royal City has remained reliably Liberal at both the federal (since 1993) and provincial levels (since 2003). Liz Sandals remains ideally situated to stay put aided by the centre-left leaning demographic of faculty and staff at the University of Guelph and the explosive growth of its southern subdivisions chalked full of Liberal-leaning former Brampton and Mississauga surbanites whose $300,000+ buys a lot more home for a 30-minutes longer commute. The Tories cannot seem to bring any candidate at either level capable of capturing local attention long enough to inspire change. The demographics that would help propel a federal CPC or provincial PC candidate over the top are unfortunately just beyond the boundaries of the riding: topping up Wellington-Halton Hills quarter-century Tory MPP Ted Arnott to the north and east, the PC candidate in Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale to the extreme south, and Kitchener-Conestogo Tory Michael Harris to the immediate west. If Sandals does falter a bit it will only be due to a siphoning of left-wing support to the NDP. Look for Sandals to be at a minimum of 40%. If Wynne and the Grits collapse, Sandals could become the only Liberal MPP west of the GTA period.
	14 05 04	monkey 174.114.16.226
As a university town, its likely to go for a left wing party and with the Liberals being the incumbent and the Greens largely ignored, this should stay Liberal. Had the old boundaries of Guelph-Wellington been used, the PCs may have had an outside shot due to their strong support in the surrounding rural areas, but Guelph even if surrounded in a sea of blue will stay Liberal
	14 05 03	Teddy Boragina 198.96.35.90
The Leader is running here, and, the provincial Greens have been watching what's been going on in BC. First an MP, now an MLA; all of it on the strategy of focusing your resources in order to elect people. This riding is the Green focus. Polls showing the Greens doing well in Southwest Ontario are interpreted by some as meaning a win in Dufferin. No. It means a win here. So long as the Greens continue to poll well in South West Ontario, they will take this riding.
	13 06 19	Arden 216.249.56.54
Another interesting race that might end up boiling down to not a three, but a four-way split between the major parties as it seems clear this will be a major target for the GPO. That being said, Sandals has a huge margin if the results carry over at all from last election, and I agree with Mr. Cox's point about how Guelph stayed red even during the LPC's rather disastrous collapse during the last Federal election. I vote LPO hold, but am aware that this could easily change, especially if the vote gets badly divided among the four parties. At which point all bets are off, basically.
	13 05 17	Teddy Boragina 198.96.35.90
Guelph is one of the most well known targets for the Greens. I think the Ontario Greens will look at what happened in BC, Federally and Provincially, and say 'We should try this'. This is one of the 3 ridings where they stand the best chance to win. I'm thus predicting this as TCTC for the time being.
	13 03 13	seasaw 99.225.1.213
Jack Cox has made a good observation by predicting this for the Liberals, but a wrong one. Why ? First, one should never confuse Federal and Provincial elections. Second, the federal Liberals did not take this riding, Frank Valeriote won this riding, who just happened to be a Liberal. He is viewed as a Guelph guy, not a party guy. Third, Sandals is no Valeriote, she's seen as more of an opportunist. The factors that should be considered here are: 1. How big of a fallout, if any are the teachers going to have with Sandals 2. What kind of a campaign are the PC's going to run and 3. How well Mike Schreiner does, and which party loses more votes to him. All too early to tell at this time.
	13 02 16	Jack Cox 24.226.65.140
The Federal Conservatives could not even take this seat when the Federal Liberals were at their worst, The provincial liberals have not even hit that mark yet, Sandals will hold.
	13 02 14	seasaw 99.225.1.213
At the present time, this one is a tough one to call. The incumbent Liz Sandals is unpopular here, she was just named the Minister of Education, she has a tough job, if she can heal the wounds between the province and the teachers, she'll have a shot, if not, it'll be an uphill climb, because in the past many of her volunteers were teachers, and she won't be able to count on their help this time. The Tories have an unknown token candidate, he's got a shot if Hudak runs an effective campaign. If the Tory campaign is anything like the past 2, forget it. The one candidate who will get lots of votes, is the Green Party candidate and leader. Many people will vote for him just because he's the leader. It should be an interesting one to watch.