Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2014


Prediction Changed
2014-06-06 08:19:00

Constituency Profile


Choo, P C

Holyday, Doug

Lochwin, Natalie

Lytvyn, Ihor

Milczyn, Peter

Salewsky, Angela

Wrzesniewski, Mark

Doug Holyday


  • Pundits’ Guide – Ontario (Etobicoke-Lakeshore)
  • 2011 Provincial Election Prediction
  • 2011 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2008 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2007 Provincial Election Prediction

    2011 Result:

    2007 Result:

    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    14 06 08 Trinity-Spadina Progressive
    I don't think Doug Holyday's personal popularity will be enough to withstand the overall trend in a general election. I'm calling this a Liberal pickup, but with the highest Tory vote in Toronto.
    14 06 07 Toronto Star/Forum Poll
    Etobicoke-Lakeshore (polled May 30, 681 people, accurate to within 4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20) Liberal Peter Milczyn 49 per cent, Progressive Conservative Doug Holyday 39 per cent, New Democrat P.C. Choo 7 per cent, Green Angela Salewsky 4 per cent.
    14 06 06 R.O.
    I stand by my original prediction but want to update things. I do agree that Kathleen Wynne is going to do well in Toronto , its her base of support and only area of province where she has a significant lead . however that does not mean every single riding in the 416 is going to go liberal . Doug Holyday is a great candidate for the pc's and was a very popular city councillor for Etobicoke who always got re-elected . he is going to hold this seat , of course the liberals want It back but honestly he is such a strong candidate I cannot see them taking this seat back . if the pc's were running an average candidate I don't think they could win this riding and it would be going likely to the liberals .
    14 06 06 Marco Ricci
    Sid Ryan posted a poll on Twitter that EKOS did for OFL in this riding:
    Lib 51
    PC 33
    NDP 7
    14 05 27 marco Ricci
    In the story, 'Tories risk losing lone Toronto seat', Wilfrid Laurier University professor Barry Kay says he is giving an edge to Liberal Peter Milczyn in this riding: On paper, Etobicoke-Lakeshore is the Conservatives' best shot in the city of Toronto,' he said. But he wouldn't bet on it. 'Right now we have the seat of Etobicoke-Lakeshore in the leaning Liberal category.'
    14 05 25 Arden
    While I don't doubt the Liberals will be losing a few points here, I do doubt I will be enough for a change in party. Granted, the lack of an incumbency advantage does expose the LPO to a loss here (and I think both the NDP and PC parties could be threats to them), I still think the Liberal Party will hold this.
    14 05 24 Karl
    This one looks more like a Peter Milczyn win this time, with a near complete absence of PC Choo and an NDP campaign. Even the southern, affluent parts of the riding along the lake appear evenly split and that can't be good for Doug Holliday.
    14 05 22 Alice
    This one is going to be a nail biter right to the end. If the Liberal rise in Toronto is to be believed I think this is a pickup for the Ontario Liberals.
    14 05 19 A,S,
    Can't tell whether Milczyn giving it another go is a plus or a minus for the Liberals--or if it *is* a minus, it's a 'there is no plus' kind of minus; though maybe through their shared Ford-exec background, Milczyn + Holyday make for weirdly 'collegial' opponents. About the only guarantee is that as part of the typical 'normalization' that happens to vote shares in general elections, P.C. Choo's share will go up--perhaps 'significantly'--but keep in mind that twice his byelection share is still short of what the ONDP's negligible 2011 effort managed. Ruth Grier is far, far behind us now...
    14 05 18 seasaw
    Holiday should be able to hold this one for the PC's. During the by election, he increased the PC support by 17%, he should be able to hold the support, also, if NDP gets back to its normal range of support 15-20%, instead of the 8% they got in the by election, it would mean a bigger win for Holiday.
    14 05 14 OgtheDim
    If the teachers come out to forestall Hudak's 100K cuts proposal, the Tories are dead in the inner suburban ridings. We'll know in about 10 days how this will go.
    14 05 13 R.O.
    Doug Holyday is a great candidate for the Ontario pc's , he was a very popular city councillor before he ran and won in the by election . the by election results aren't posted to this site but they were a lot better than 2011 numbers for pc's . 46% for pc and 42% for liberals with very little ndp in this riding . anyways I think Doug Holyday will be able to hold this riding .
    14 05 12 EL
    This riding should swing back to the Liberals, if the Liberal polls have a greater voter turnout than the Conservative polls in the riding.
    14 05 10 Brett
    With the mayor far away in rehab, Hollyday loses his best advantage with GOTV. The Liberals will pick it back up.
    14 05 05 Dr Bear
    This riding was won by Doug Holyday in the byelection, not the PC party. As such it has become a Doug Holyday riding and people are going to vote for him. With PC numbers up, the narrow margin of victory will hold. Disenfranchised liberal voters that stayed home in the by election will likely come back, however strong NDP support will probably prevent the Liberals from winning. My prediction at this early stage of the game is that this will continue to be the only PC riding in Toronto.
    14 05 03 Paul
    Really close contest, but I believe that the Liberals might take this one back. Toronto in the general election might just push this one over the edge of victory for the Libs, but it will be close.
    13 09 14
    The resignation of Laurel Broten and the recent by-election in this riding make this one a tough call. Doug Holyday won by just over one thousand votes in the by-election. However, before we prematurely call this one for the PCs in a general election, lets take a look at some of the factors at play in the by-election.
    Firstly, it took place at the height of the gas-plant scandal, when the liberals should have been at their most unpopular. Secondly, Doug Holyday was a star candidate - but the didn't win by that much! Thirdly, Laurel Broten's shadow was still hanging over the riding - too much anger still existed from teachers and other public sector unions.
    Next time, with union support back on the liberal's side, and with disenchanted liberals already feeling like they got their punishment message across in the by-election, a solid liberal campaign starring Peter Milczyn will win this one back for the liberals.
    13 08 02 KS
    The Tories finally broke into Toronto after Doug Holyday's by-election victory. With Holyday, I think the Tories will be able to hold this riding in the general election, even if they do not form government.
    This riding goes Blue because of the candidate's personal popularity in the riding and nothing else.
    13 06 24 seasaw
    Well, Broten has left the building. Now, this seat is going to be a toss up between Liberals and the PC's. We have to look and see what impact will the plant cancellations, deleted emails, and OPP investigation will have on the Liberals. After supporting the Liberal budget, the NDP has all but lost any chance of winning this seat. The way things stand, the Liberals can be guaranteed of at least 33% support here, the PC's can be guaranteed with 24% and NDP at least 12%. What is uncertain is how the remaining 31% will vote.
    13 03 15 seasaw
    I don't want to call this one either, however, Broten's defeat is not so certain. Sure, there's bill 115, but no one should forget that she's got a solid record as MPP here. It is most certain that NDP can't make up the ground here, it's not like KW. There is however a chance that NDP can get to 30% and with a good campaign, the PC's make up 5-6%, a small chance, however a chance, if that happens PC will squeak by. If not, then Broten all the way.
    13 02 10 LFC Ottawa
    I dont want to call this one, but Broten will be defeated after the bill 115 PR crash for the liberals. The unions will spend whatever they can here, and I could see this seat being like the KW by election and going NDP. If they cant make up that ground to get from 15% to 40% of the vote, the PC's come up the middle and steal it.

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