Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2014

Algoma-Manitoulin


Prediction Changed
2013-03-07 22:40:00
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Hadidian, Richard

Hughson, Craig

Mantha, Michael

Turner, Byron JIB""

Zalucky, Alexandra

Incumbent:
Michael Mantha

Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide – Ontario (Algoma-Manitoulin)
  • 2011 Provincial Election Prediction
  • 2011 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2008 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2007 Provincial Election Prediction


    2011 Result:

    MICHAEL MANTHA
    1158544.52%
    * MIKE BROWN
    739728.42%
    JOE CHAPMAN
    614123.6%
    JUSTIN TILSON
    6842.63%
    DAVID HOFFMAN
    2170.83%
    2007 Result:
    * MIKE BROWN
    11,36142.56%
    PETER DENLEY
    9,86336.95%
    RON SWAIN
    3,74414.02%
    RON YURICK
    1,3745.15%
    RAY SCOTT
    3541.33%

    2003 Result (redistributed):

    1452048.31%
    516817.19%
    945931.47%


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    14 06 11 A.S.
    99.231.139.81
    Mike Brown's long Liberal tenure notwithstanding, from 1999 (as a de facto amalgamation of Bud Wildman's Algoma and Brown's Alg-Man) onwards this was always high on the ONDP-targetable list--at least, as high as something could be during the fallow Hampton years; so Mantha's 2011 landslide basically did what was always meant to be around these parts. And with the Mike Brown factor gone, don't be surprised if the PCs assume second-place honours (unless Hudak's Northern debate snub means anything)
    14 06 10 Jeff G
    70.49.168.130
    ThreeHundredEight lists this as a mere 52% chance for an NDP win, which I think is ridiculous. There is no way the Liberals are going to make up a mid-teens deficit in an election where very little has changed. especially in the north.
    14 06 05 NJam101
    63.135.17.148
    Michael Mantha will easily win again and this time with a larger percentage of the votes. The other candidates are not very strong. Mantha is bilingual and seems to be well liked as an MPP. The riding is interesting because it is very rural, population is spread out and the largest community is Elliot Lake. The riding contains Manitoulin Island, along Hwy 17, North Shore of Lake Huron towns, along much of Lake Superior (Wawa, etc.) and isolated towns such as Chapleau, Dubreuilville, Manitouwadge and Hornepayne. The NDP has advocated having raw natural resources (ore, logs) being processed only in the province which has proved popular. The Northern portion of the riding is very strongly NDP. The very southern portion has pockets that are more to the right, especially Manitoulin, but Mantha will still do quite well throughout. Mantha became especially well known during the Algo Centre mall collapse in Elliot Lake. In fact, his main constituency office was located in that mall.
    14 05 04 monkey
    174.114.16.226
    Considering how unpopular the Liberals have become in Northern Ontario and how the PCs are not much of a factor outside the two ridings they already hold, the NDP should hold this one.
    14 05 13 R.O.
    24.146.23.226
    MIke Mantha should be able to hold this riding for the ndp it used to be safe for the liberals but don't see any of the other parties being able to make a serious run for this riding this year.
    14 05 04 monkey
    174.114.16.226
    Considering how unpopular the Liberals have become in Northern Ontario and how the PCs are not much of a factor outside the two ridings they already hold, the NDP should hold this one.
    13 03 06 northerner
    76.67.27.218
    No reason to assume the the NDP won't win this again. NDP numbers in the north are still in good shape.



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