Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2014


Prediction Changed
2013-02-23 11:47:00

Constituency Profile


Daid, Bobbie

Jones, Sylvia

Kowalewski, Daniel

Wallace, Karren

Yazbek, Rehya

Sylvia Jones


  • Pundits’ Guide – Ontario (Dufferin-Caledon)
  • 2011 Provincial Election Prediction
  • 2011 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2008 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2007 Provincial Election Prediction

    2011 Result:

    2007 Result:

    2007 Result:


    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    14 06 05 R.O.
    I wouldn't be surprised to see the green's come in second here and maybe another riding as well but don't really see them winning the riding . its still at its core a rural small town pc riding with a growing suburban element . Sylvia Jones isn't a high profile tory mpp when compared to others from this region of Ontario but still has won the riding twice already. I could see the green vote continue to grow here but don't think the riding is going anywhere at this time.
    14 05 29 AGP
    This riding may prove to be an upset for the Green Party come election night. Polling averages are now putting the GPO in second place, and only within about 5% points from the margin of error. There has been a strange spike in support it seems, likely due to distaste with the three main parties. It appears the progressive vote may collapse towards the Greens, and a riding they didn't place as much stock in as Guelph, may be theirs afterall.
    14 05 29 Paul
    All this talk about the Green's spike in votes being a thing of the past, will be in for a little surprise come election night. A 2nd place finish is not out of the question again. Green's have a solid core building and are not as far away as others think from possibly run to win. Something Green is brewing here.
    14 05 29 Teddy Boragina
    This website has an awful track record with officially predicting Green wins, however, there is some history here.
    The rise in support for the Greens in this riding matched the timing of the controversy surrounding the Shelburne Mega-Quarry. Now that these plans have been nixed, it will be interesting to see if the Greens can maintain their support levels. The deeper I dig into the information, the more convinced I am the answer is no.
    14 05 19 A.S.
    Contrary to common OPC-heartland perception, D-C's actually proven to be sluggish for the provincial PCs post-Tilson/Eves/Tory--though that may be part due to its being an open seat in 2007 + the sustained big bite taken by the Greens in 2011; then again, the outsize Green factor may be quasi-receding now that the Melancthon quarry controversy has died down. (Another factor: the sustained McGuinty Liberal pull on the kind of 905burbia sprawl that laps upon the riding's lower extremities--even in 2011, the Grits held the PCs to a draw in Bolton.) But sluggish or not, I just can't see the seat shifting allegiances, even if Kathleen Wynne might superficially appear to play well among the Hockley Valley set. (So, blame *her* for any potential Green sinkage, then.)
    14 05 16 Trinity-Spadina Progressive
    Dufferin-Caledon is an exurban riding that is very safe for the Tories. The Greens do well here is an interesting electoral footnote but I don't see them taking this any time soon.
    14 05 05 R.O.
    A likely Ontario pc hold for time being , a riding on edge of Toronto area , mix of small towns and some newer suburban areas . has been pc for a long time . other parties do still have supporters in the riding however I don't think its very likely they would be able to grow enough to pass pc's.
    14 05 04 monkey
    Long been a safe PC riding and while this may be one of the better Greens showing, I cannot see them winning this. The PCs even in a bad election usually get at least 45% and there is no reason they should do worse this. There is a reason why Ernie Eves and John Tory chose to run in this riding to get a seat in the legislature; that's because they knew it was a safe riding.
    13 05 17 Teddy Boragina
    Dufferin-Caleton is actually a target for the Greens. I think the Ontario Greens will look at what happened in BC, Federally and Provincially, and say 'We should try this'. This is one of the 3 ridings where they stand the best chance to win. I'm thus predicting this as TCTC for the time being.
    I admit I can't explain why the party does so well in this area, however.
    13 02 20 seasaw
    Nothing'll change here. Another big Tory win.

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