Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2014


Prediction Changed
2014-06-11 08:10:00

Constituency Profile


Brown, Temara

Dettweiler, Allan

Leone, Rob

McGarry, Kathryn

Stewart, Bobbi

Rob Leone


  • Pundits’ Guide – Ontario (Cambridge)
  • 2011 Provincial Election Prediction
  • 2011 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2008 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2007 Provincial Election Prediction

    2011 Result:

    2007 Result:

    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    14 06 10 M
    Too Close to call? Hardly.
    Things to note:
    1. Since this riding was created in the 40s, the Liberals have not held it, ever, not once.
    2. In the past 3 elections, the Liberals have not been able to crack 34%
    3. This riding sometimes swings NDP, but with a relatively unknown candidate this time around it's very unlikely to happen.
    PC hold here.
    14 06 10 First Name
    I'm calling this one for the Liberals. The Forum riding poll showed a surprising strength for the Liberal candidate, and the riding was fairly close last election. It seems that running multiple times may have helped Kathryn too. It's a little odd for a southwestern riding to be swinging Liberal when they've polled poorly in the region (at least according to some pollsters), but considering the Forum poll handed it by a fairly large margin, it seems like this riding will turn red.
    14 06 10 Marco Ricci
    Surprising how large the Liberal lead is in that Forum riding poll. It's well outside the margin of error, so in theory this riding should be leaning to the Liberals more so than the 1-pt lead that shows up in the Burlington riding poll. The Cambridge Times reported today that Kathleen Wynne made a 2nd stop in this riding over the weekend. Maybe the Liberals have internal polls backing up the Forum riding poll that shows this seat in play?
    14 06 10 A.S.
    Strange poll--could Kathryn McGarry be the Liberal equivalent of one of those NDP multiple-tries-and-then-you-succeed types? Then again, she's always been atypically 'competitive' in a seat where Liberalism's tended to play second fiddle to PC/NDP--maybe she's tapped into a hitherto suppressed voter mood, and it's finally paying off? And it isn't like Rob Leone's *horrible* or anything; though I've always been reluctant to give it to him given the closeness (and not just two-way, but *three*-way) of his 2011 result--no matter what the electoral pattern's been over the past two decades. Perhaps one thing that benefits McGarry is that the ONDP actually had a better candidate in 2011 (a young Nigerian-born educator, of all things), but is now resorting to importing a federal sacrificial lamb from Guelph (where, in the year of the Orange Crush, she won *no polls whatsoever*). Whatever the case, this definitely punctures conventional wisdom about the Tories, the Liberals, and SW Ontario in 2014...
    14 06 09 seasaw
    Never mind what the Forum Poll suggests, it was published on May 30th but the poll was actually taken a few days earlier. They had a similar poll prior to 2003 election suggesting the Liberals would get over 50%. The Liberals didn't win here in their landslides of 1987, 2003 and 2007, and they're sure not going to win it this time.
    14 06 09 therealbatman
    If the PC's could win this in 2003, 2007 and 2011, there's no reason to think they'll lose the seat this time, when they actually have a realistic chance of forming government.
    14 06 09 Star Lover
    A poll from the Toronto Star saying the Liberals are way ahead in Cambridge? What a surprise that is! No less in a riding the Liberals have not held since World War 1, now during the worst Liberal corruption scandal in Ontario history. This is the kind of bogus polling that should absolutely be outlawed. Libs are third in Cambridge.
    14 06 07 Toronto Star/Forum Poll
    Cambridge (polled May 30, 559 people, accurate to within 4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20) Liberal Kathryn McGarry 42 per cent, Progressive Conservative Rob Leone 29 per cent, New Democrat Bobbi Stewart 16 per cent, Green Temera Brown 9 per cent.
    14 06 06 LFC Ottawa
    Leone has not been effective in his critic role. His whitepaper on post secondary education was laughable if the matter was not so serious. Local polls have him down. Can't wait for my reaction when CTV declares Cambridge elected McGarry.
    14 05 27 Marco Ricci
    jeff316, your comment about the lack of NDP signs backs up the current 308 seat projection for this riding which shows a close race between the Conservatives & Liberals, with the PC's having a small lead. NDP appear to be in 3rd here.
    14 05 25 jeff316
    If the NDP's popularity in southwestern Ontario is to extend beyond the ridings they already have, Cambridge has to be one of the few spots where the NDP can expect to have some hope. I can't testify to any insider knowledge of this campaign. Having spent a lot of time in Galt, Preston and Hespeler recently I can attest that PC and Liberal signs are pretty even, and that I haven't seen a single NDP sign anywhere.
    14 05 22 R.O.
    Been a close race provincially the last couple of elections but has remained an Ontario pc riding . Rob Leone is a good mpp and should be able to hold the riding . liberals seem to have lost ground in south western Ontario and not likely to make gains. ndp could have potential here but only if party was polling a lot higher.
    14 05 13 Dr Bear
    While I am predicting a PC win, this is one riding where I could see an NDP upset. The last few elections, the Liberals were stuck at 34% of the vote here. In the last election, the NDP jumped up to 24%. If Liberal support continues to wane in SW Ontario and it crystallizes around the NDP, the NDP could snatch this from the PC. It's a long shot but the trend does suggest it could be interesting.
    14 05 06 Numbers Pundit
    Rob Leone, while not the strongest candidate local Tories could offer up, should have no trouble keeping the seat in the Blue column. Unlike other regional seats that have swung left over the past decade provincially, Cambridge has remained consistently PC since 1995. Once a blue-collar, union-heavy yet populist manufacturing enclave, the riding has evolved since 2002 and similar to Guelph as more and more GTA'ers head down the 401 for larger lots and lower home prices. With those demographics comes GTA voter preferences including tendencies to vote for the least inoffensive option, free from controversy, and likeable. The Liberal candidate is hoping third time will be the charm but likely has little hope of improving her 2011 performance. The NDP, once a force to be reckoned with in the city, has seen its influence and support wane as factories have shuttered and employment has transitioned to the services and high-tech sectors. Apart from Wellington-Halton Hills, this is the safest Tory seat in south-central Ontario.
    13 02 11 seasaw
    This one should and will stay in the blue column. The Tories have held this seat 24 of the last 32 years, and with polls showing a rise in NDP support and a drop in Liberal support, can't see this one go any other way.

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