Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2014

York South-Weston

Prediction Changed
2014-06-07 22:56:00

Constituency Profile


Albanese, Laura

Ferreira, Paul

Ffrench, Andrew

Higgins, Jessica

Laura Albanese


  • Pundits’ Guide – Ontario (York South-Weston)
  • 2011 Provincial Election Prediction
  • 2011 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2008 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2007 Provincial Election Prediction

    2011 Result:

    2007 Result:

    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    14 06 08 Trinity-Spadina Progressive
    Paul Ferreira is a very likeable and hardworking guy, and the ONDP would love to win back this old stronghold that elected David Lewis federally, former provincial leader Donald C. Macdonald, and yes, Bob Rae and that is currently held federally by Mike Sullivan. However, at this point the NDP doesn't look like it'll see any increase in seats, and the Liberals are far ahead of the NDP in Toronto, so I expect Laura Albanese to hang on. I don't think the pitch to 'Ford New Democrats' is going to amount to any seats in Toronto.
    14 06 07 TY
    The Liberals should be holding every riding they have in the 416 while picking up a few NDP ridings around the city. York South-Weston is no exception, the 416 NDP vote is collapsing and the Liberals should hold this riding by a decent margin. This should be moved out of the Too Close to Call column.
    14 06 05 ML
    Despite polling showing that the NDP is dropping in the 416, and under threat in even 'safe' NDP incumbent ridings like Parkdale-High Park and Beaches-East York, I still York South-Weston is too close to call. Why? Because Horwath's bread-and-butter platform that is making the NDP base in the aforementioned downtown ridings uneasy should do a lot better in a working-class, inner-suburban riding that is the second poorest in the city. In fact, I can see a scenario where the NDP loses Trinity-Spadina, Davenport, and one of Parkdale or Beaches, and still picks up York South-Weston. Left-of-centre voters in those ridings vote for the more cosmopolitan Wynne while residents in a working-class riding like YSW are drawn towards Horwath for her focus on pocket book issues like tax reductions on their hydro bill.
    14 06 02 Initial
    It will be a close race, but the Liberals are not going to do as well this election as last time and York South-Weston is one of the seats they will lose.
    My overall riding projections right now:
    NDP 44.6
    Liberal 42.2
    PC 11.5
    Green 1.7
    14 05 25 Marco Ricci
    Mr. Dave, it's hard to know what 'polling' shows these days because each pollster is saying something different. EKOS has the Liberals ahead, and Ipsos-Reid has the Conservatives ahead. The recent seat projection model at 308 actually shows this seat moving to the Liberals. Someone else below mentioned that the NDP 'got an MP elected federally'. That's true, but the Federal NDP was only able to win this riding in 2011 during the Ignatieff collapse & the Layton wave. Prior to that the NDP had been losing this riding in every election. So while there is an NDP base here, the NDP success depends more on provincial trends rather than on the riding association itself. It's largely outside their control.
    14 05 25 A.S.
    The accusations of homophobia behind Ferreira's 2011 defeat may be a red herring; in fact, recent results (including Paul Sullivan's federal victory) suggest that low 40s may be the NDP's 'natural' plateau around these parts. And this time, perennial-candidate fatigue and the Wynne-Horwath dynamic could sink Ferreira further--then again, 'Fordwathism' could draw those terminally unhipsterrific Frances Nunziata populists back *into* the NDP camp. Keep in mind that even in defeat, Ferreira's 2011 losing share was less than a quarter point below Rosario Machese's winning share.
    14 05 24 Mr. Dave
    Recent polling has shown a rise of 8% in NDP support in the Toronto area, and a drop of 11% in Liberal support.
    This definitely puts York South-Weston into the category of NDP pick-up if the polls keep like this on election night.
    14 05 23 truthseeker
    People saying this and that about the incumbent and the NDP candidate, are really blowing smoke. The fact is, this riding will depend more than most others on the provincial PC trend. If Tim Hudak gets a majority, Paul Ferreira will be be elected. If Hudak gets a minority, Ferreira will probably be elected. If Wynne gets back in, Ferreira will probably have another tough loss. Same goes for many other close Lib/NDP races, no surprise there. This is why you'll see the NDP going after the Liberals way more than the Tories. The York-South Weston NDP run a tight ship, they got an MP elected federally. But it would be hard for them to do well enough locally to beat the Liberals, if Wynne hangs on to government.
    14 05 23 Arden
    This one will be interesting. The fact that the NDP candidate keeps running would normally be a deterrent, or at least that's what one would expect, yet things seem to be consistently close in elections past. With this in mind, I think Ferreira, buffered by a loss in Liberal enthusiasm, could be pushed ahead on election day.
    14 05 20 Marco Ricci
    Paul Ferreira does seem to one of those candidates that runs perpetually in every election. He was elected once and then was defeated, and then defeated again and again, but just keeps running. Whether that is an advantage in terms of name recognition and organization, or whether that is an irritant to the voters, I don't know. But since this riding has been close several times between Ferreria and Albanese, he probably has another shot at it. We won't know again until election night for these two.
    14 05 18 Jeff316
    People in this riding are really sick of Paul Ferreira. Paul did a lot of constituency-building work before finally getting elected and whether or not it is accurate, there is the sense that he left those people and their issues behind once he hit the lights of Queen's Park. Albanese is near invisible but most residents prefer it that way. She'll win with a larger cushion this time.
    14 05 12 Matt L
    I don't think anyone can truly predict this riding. The last two elections have been decided by less than a 1000 votes. This will be one to watch for sure.
    14 05 12 YSW Lib
    Laura and the Liberals will once again win this riding by just over or under 1000 votes. As long as the NDP riding association in this riding seems to keep nominating Paul to represent them versus Laura, there is just enough people in the riding that will elect Laura over Paul. The only way the NDP wins this riding is if the Liberals have a major catastrophe during the campaign, which isn't likely to happen. Even so, The NDP will only win by less than 500 votes.
    13 09 15
    Definitely TCTC. Everyone thought Ferreira had it in the bag last time around and look what happened. With Wynne renewing liberal strength in the provincial capital, and Albanese's resilience (not to mention the effort the liberal campaign will put into holding this one) this is a very slight lean liberal.
    13 05 15 DL
    This riding will once again be tooth and nail for every vote. It is very close but the Liberals seem to have enough support to squeak through again. The N.D.P might need to change their candidate, as Paul Ferreira doesn't seem to have enough to unseat Laura Albanese time and time again.
    13 02 15 LFC Ottawa
    Close race last time. 18 months later with a new premier and unions who are mad as hell at their old friends, and the NDP win it.

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