Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2014

Windsor-Tecumseh


Prediction Changed
2014-05-03 08:36:00
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Dupuis, Jason William

Hatfield, Percy

Marshall, Timothy

Wright, Adam

Wright, Brandon

Incumbent:
Percy Hatfield

Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide – Ontario (Windsor-Tecumseh)
  • 2011 Provincial Election Prediction
  • 2011 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2008 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2007 Provincial Election Prediction


    2011 Result:

    * DWIGHT DUNCAN
    1594642.83%
    ANDREW MCAVOY
    1222832.84%
    ROBERT DE VERTEUIL
    775120.82%
    JUSTIN LEVESQUE
    8302.23%
    DAN DOMINATO
    4761.28%
    2007 Result:
    * DWIGHT DUNCAN
    17,89449.34%
    HELMI CHARIF
    8,83624.36%
    KRISTINE ROBINSON
    6,10616.84%
    ANDREW MCAVOY
    2,6967.43%
    JOHN CURTIN
    7352.03%

    2003 Result (redistributed):

    1944153.65%
    435912.03%
    1056229.14%


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    14 05 23 A.S.
    99.233.52.111
    In the end, other than its being such a landslide, the NDP byelection victory shouldn't have come as such a surprise--after all, this was Dave Cooke's longtime provincial stronghold--but the fact that the Grits absent-mindedly went from cabinet minister to barely-deposit-level oblivion is telling; so, farewell to the days of Windsorites splitting their tickets federally and provincially. And extrapolating from the byelection and because this is Windsor, just call this currently the safest non-Hamiltonian ONDP seat. (And hey, Percy Hatfield makes a good Andrea-style 'compromiser', too.)
    14 05 20 R.O.
    24.146.23.226
    ndp will more than likely keep the riding , wasn't even close in by election last year . I can't really see any of the other parties being able to make a serious run here . interesting to see what party comes in second though .
    14 05 12 Dr Bear
    69.172.81.45
    Solid NDP hold. Windsorites tend to be kind to their incumbents but dump the party once the incumbent is gone. With Duncan retired and the Liberals dumped, the NDP should keep this one. The polls are also showing both the PC and the NDP strong in SW Ontario (with the NDP ahead slightly). I would argue that the NDP are going to do very well in the cities while the PC will sweep most of the rural ridings.
    14 05 04 monkey
    174.114.16.226
    This stayed Liberal due to Dwight Duncan's high profile role, but has largely imploded since much like it did federally so the NDP should take this quite easily. Maybe not by quite the margins they did in the by-election, but still enough to win.
    13 06 19 Arden
    216.249.56.54
    With Duncan gone, I feel this will trend to the NDP. This prediction does feel a little early (although that's pretty much true for all the TCTC predictions when the election is this far away) but regardless I feel the NDP have been doing well in Southwestern Ontario and this should be a riding where this advantage will be shown.
    13 06 13 seasaw
    99.225.1.213
    A spring election has been averted, so a by election must take place. Andrea's support for the budget has destroyed any hope that NDP had in this as well as most other ridings. Now Andrea's ideas are Kathleen's. Expect NDP to lose 10-12 points, PC's to gain maybe 1, which adds up to a Liberal landslide.
    13 03 14 Dr Bear
    70.24.22.131
    I'm not so sure which way this riding will swing. I do believe that the NDP have a stellar chance at picking up this riding (it was the riding that began their current federal Windsor stronghold back in the early 2000's) but the Liberals could hold on with the right candidate and right campaign. No call until an actual election and I say it'll be down to the wire.
    13 02 27 seasaw
    99.225.1.213
    I disagree with the previous poster about Dwight Duncan; he's got a nice Bay Street job now and I don't think he'll get back into politics. If Sandra Pupatello decides to run here, there's no way she'll lose. If not, I don't think the Liberals would have any problems recruiting a good candidate, it may go right down the wire, but I think the Liberals will hold.
    13 02 16 Jack Cox
    24.226.65.140
    Unless Sandra Pupatello actually has a change of heart, this seat is probably lost to the NDP.
    13 02 15 LFC Ottawa
    70.30.21.69
    With the resignation of Minister Duncan, Windsor will turn in 2013 and 2015. NDP pick up the seat at Queens Park, and Duncan will win it for the Liberals in the next federal election.



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