Pundits’ Guide – Ontario (Willowdale)
2011 Provincial Election Prediction
2011 Federal Election Prediction
2008 Federal Election Prediction
2007 Provincial Election Prediction
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|14 06 10
|I don't see David Zimmer being vulnerable here unless the OLP falls well behind the PC's provincially and in the 905. Zimmer actually increased his margin in 2011 compared to 2007. David Shiner was a tougher opponent for him in 2007 than Vince Agovino was in 2011, and when Agovino made some bizarre anti-gay remarks in the final week, it sealed the win for Zimmer. Even Martha Hall Findlay almost held on here for the Federal Liberals in the Ignatieff wipeout of 2011, so I don't see Zimmer going down unless Wynne crashes to the low levels that Iggy did.
|14 06 08
|The PC's have been laying the groundwork since Charlie Harnick.
I have yet to receive a visit or even a brochure from any candidate with only a few days to go. Laissez-faire.
|14 05 30
|This race will be close. Much of it will come down to the leaders debate and there are many undecideds. The PCs have a strong motivated base in this riding. If Hudak does well on June 3rd, that should be enough to take the local PC candidate, who has been laying the groundwork for almost 2 years, to Queen's Park. Also of benefit are the PC candidate's ties to the riding vs. the incumbent.
|14 05 29
|Please remember that in order to vote, a person must be a Canadian Citizen.
With that in mind, I don't think any BBQs on Yonge St, or anywhere else will mean much.
It really eliminates MANY in condos along the Yonge Street core.
|14 05 26
|Zimmer is a Cabinet Minister? He obviously made a big splash. I consider myself reasonably well informed and I didn't know that. My guess is that the Korean BBQ set on Yonge Street don't either. The prognosticators on this page are way too inside baseball. Trudeau was right, they're all nobodies 100 yards from Parliament. Willowdale will go with the trend.
|14 05 25
|Willowdale leans to the centre, not the right--as Jim Peterson's long federal tenure proves; it only seems otherwise because (a) the NDP's traditionally marginal here, and (b) the provincial PCs had a good recent-times run w/Charles Harnick (one of only three elected in the 416 in 1990) and David Young (almost the only 416 survivor in 2003). If anything, the Yonge condo explosion anchors it even *more* to the centre--sort of like the inverse of what condos have done to Trinity-Spadina (i.e. from the right, rather than from the left). And for Zimmer, now being in Cabinet and being next door to Wynne cements it all.
|14 05 14
|Unless the Libs implode, this riding is staying Liberal. The local PC candidate is an unknown, and doesn't have any obvious links to the riding - he'll have to do a Chungsun Leung and ride provincial coat tails. Support for the Libs in Toronto is strong right now. And the NDP is not a factor here.
|14 05 09
|I will have to respectfully disagree with Teddy on this one, I do not believe it's too close to call. Yes Willowdale does lean to the right. Yes it did got CPC in the most recent Federal election. Yes the BC polls were off (as well as Alberta's). However I feel there are some differences that need t be taken into account. First let's address the polls in the BC and Alberta elections. In both cases, the polls were suggesting a drastic change in government and the voters got spooked at the last moment. When this happens, they often tend to default back to their previous voting pattern (better the devil you know...) and voters who tend to vote for other parties start to vote strategically (such as Alberta Liberal and NDP voters going PC to avoid a Wild Rose win). The one place where voters are not afraid to make a dramatic change in government would be Quebec (as I have said in the past). Just look at recent elections to see evidence of that. No, I think that if a PC majority starts to look realistic, then NDP and Green voters in Willowdale would rally behind Zimmer. The last couple of provincial elections and the series of byelections have shown that despite all the problems with the Liberals, the voters are not warming up the Hudak and the PCs.
Now with the CPC Federal win in 2011. That year, the NDP saw a surge in this riding. Their vote doubled from the previous election and was substantially higher than what it was in previous elections. This hurt the Liberals. The CPC vote surged in 2011 due to dissatisfied Liberals, who stayed home in 2008, coming out and voting CPC. Remember, in 2011, the CPC has been in government for sometime and people were comfortable with them and were 20% higher in the polls than the Liberals (and the Liberals STILL kept this race close). This is not the case with the PC party. Hudak as premier is still and unknown quantity and the PC and Liberals are more or less tied in the polls. It will take a much larger difference in poll numbers and possible an NDP surge in order to take this from the Liberals. This may change, but as of now, I think it's a solid lock for the Liberals.
|13 09 14
|This is solid liberal territory. Zimmer could hold on even with the liberal vote down in Toronto. Not to mention it borders on the Premier's riding. Barring a complete disintegration of the central liberal campaign (
|13 05 17
|Willowdale, like it's neighbour York Centre, has a history of leaning to the right at times. I'm predicting this riding TCTC for the time being, especially given the recent BC example of how the polls can be off and how fast things can change.
|13 02 14
|Willowdale is usually a prime conservative target in Toronto. However, with Zimmer's increased profile as a cabinet minister, he should be able to hold this one for the Liberals.