Cannings, Richard James
Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election
Pundits’ Guide - 2008 Prepresentation Order
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| ||13 05 12
||Advance Voting Analyst|
|Langley, Parksville-Qualicum, Penticton and Vernon are an interesting quartet to watch in this election. Each riding is built around an urban area that is itself just about riding-sized. They have all been faithfully Liberal ridings for the past two decades. Nonetheless, they have all been touted as possible NDP pickups in this election, thanks mainly to the 'rise' of the BC Conservatives and their ability to bleed votes from the Liberals.|
In reality, these four ridings may demonstrate why, even in the absence of a non-FPTP voting system, it is ultimately green, blue and grey supporters who will decide which way the riding will swing.
In the two Okanagan ridings, where Greens took 16-17% of the vote in 2009, many of these previously Green votes are in play this time around. In Vernon-Monashee, Huguette Allen has been replaced by a parachute candidate, whilst in Penticton, there is no Green running at all.
Early theory said that the NDP could make up the 13-point gap from 2009 by absorbing the Green vote whilst the rising Conservatives bled votes from the Liberals, an oversimplified version of which would look like:
Liberals 44% last time - 10% = 34%
Conservatives 9% last time + 10% = 19%
NDP 31% last time + 16% = 47%
There is a tendency in BC (as elsewhere), to assume the lion's share of Green votes with nowhere to go would end up with the NDP. In the Okanagan, this is probably less true -- there has to be a chunk of the vote sliding between the Liberals and Greens.
Further, the growth of the Conservatives seems to have been stifled. Although polling higher provincially than in 2009, they don't look as if they're going to improve much on their ~10% performance in the Okanagan ridings, if at all.
A theory I haven't yet seen advanced here or elsewhere is that the Liberal GAIN FROM GREENS will match or exceed the Liberal LOSS TO CONSERVATIVES. I am postulating exactly that here. Even if we are talking about just a percentage point or two in each case, it greatly reduces the likelihood of an NDP pickup.
So let's assume instead that the Conservatives take just two points from the Liberals, and that the Greens' 16 points are split 10 NDP, 6 Liberal:
Liberals 44% last time + 6% - 2% = 48%
Conservatives 9% last time + 2% = 11%
NDP 31% last time + 10% = 41%
The only swing left to apply is that between the two main parties. Recent Liberal strength in polls make a seven-point swing unlikely, but not impossible. Keep in mind that I haven't factored the independent candidate into the mix (and he is likely to take a couple of points from somewhere), and that every point by which I am off in redistributing the Green votes is a two-point swing. But 11-5 is a 2:1 ratio and 12-4 is a 3:1 ratio, and I am all but certain that the Liberals can grab at least a quarter or a third of the floating Green votes.
Boundary-Similkameen shows us that a riding that is partly in the Okanagan can go NDP (even though it is dependent on the NDP votes from Grand Forks and other high elevations). Even though Penticton is likely to stay red, it will be close enough to demonstrate to voters that the NDP might have a real shot at winning a 100% Okanagan seat in the next election.
| ||13 05 08
|A nationally renown Scientist and genuinely honest candidate against a mayor with a shoddy record.|
Cannings gets my call
| ||13 05 07
|Bill Barlee won this with almost 47% in 1991 for the NDP - with that being said, Barlee was a fairly unique character, and I would not look for that good an NDP result here this time. Still, I think an NDP win with about 40% is probably in the cards, especially without the Liberal incumbent. |
| ||13 05 05
|I'm sorry but I do see the Conservatives collapsing. They certainly are not growing and the number of resignations together with the non-impression Cummins made in the debates tells me they are doing quite poorly - probably worse than the last election. The right wing vote is coalescing with the Clark liberals - albeit reluctantly but they are coming back to stop the NDP. This points to a BC liberal recovery in this riding. |
| ||13 04 30
|The NDP just had an incredible stroke of luck here. The Green party whihc took 16% of the vote here in 2009 decided not to run a candidate and apparently the local Greens are all backing the NDP candidate. That alone will make this an easy NDP gain|
| ||13 04 27
||NO PARTISAN BS|
|The Liberals needed to gather all the anti-NDP vote here but the Conservatives are growing rather than collapsing. This points to a close result with the Conservative gains leaning this to the NDP.|
| ||13 04 13
|With the Liberal incumbent not running again, I think it opens up Penticton to swinging to the NDP.|
It won't be a victory by a large margin but it definitely looks like it could swing NDP.
| ||13 03 08
||NO PARTISAN BS|
|These interior ridings will be much closer than usual due to the growth of the BC Conservatives. If the Conservatives gain over 20%, they will tip this seat to the NDP. Any higher and they might even take it themselves. A three way race goes to the NDP, a two-way race makes it too close to call.|