Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2011

Timmins-James Bay

Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:23:00

Constituency Profile


Bisson, Gilles

Neron, Robert

Plant, Angela

Rickard, Leonard

Spacek, Al

Gilles Bisson


  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election

    2007 Result:


    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    11 10 03 L
    Latest poll from Forum had the following results: Bisson 48%, Spacek 33%, Rickard 15%. There is no realignment underway in Northern Ontario but continued support and appreciation for Bisson and the NDP. This result is supported by the all important lawn signs war clearly won by the NDP. This one was never in doubt, despite the concerted effort to defeat Bisson. This riding is his until he retires.
    11 09 27 jeff316
    Re: John K. Yes, but 2007 trends don’t translate to current voting results, particularly in the absence of an unpopular religious school-funding debate. So that adds to the core PC vote off the bat. As does the local candidate, also a mayor. That adds some more to the PC total. And then the one place Hudak’s messaging is actually resonating is in the North. The current polls (if they are to be believed) put the PCs not far behind the NDP and Liberals. So that adds even more to the PC vote. Plus, the Liberals are particularly unpopular in the north. In an NDP stronghold like Timmins-James Bay those voters are largely going to go PC - if they were NDP-inclined they’d already be voting NDP. Those are the factors that could vault Spacek and the PCs into a strong second-place. I generally don’t like to bet on numbers but I’d say Bisson will be in the mid to low 40s, maybe 45/35/20 Bisson/Spacek/Rickard. It’s a testament to Bisson’s success that anything in the 40s is considered a low watermark; the majority of even long-time MPs and MPPs would consider anything above 40 a decisive victory.
    11 09 26 John K.
    @ Jeff. The problem is that in Kap the PCs came in dead last last election (some polls only getting 6 or 7 votes compared to #s in the 100s for the Liberals and NDP). Having a local candidate will help a bit, but it won't push that much. On top of this, it was the Liberals who won Kap last time around, so the PC vote would be coming mostly from past Liberals votes, so the logic just doesn't work. (See numbers at ElectionsOntario's website). I do, however, agree with your statement that Bisson will lose some of the Aboriginal vote to Rickard. However, I don't think it will be significant enough to make any kind of change. I still think Bisson will win with 50% of the vote. PC will be up, Liberal way down, and Green non-existent here.
    11 09 24 jeff316
    This is turning out to be tighter than expected. Polling is indicating stronger-than-average support for Spacek, building upon the 2011 federal election's strong Conservative showing. Spacek has his Kap base and has been well received in the Timmins papers (particularly the Times, as marginal is it might be.) He also got a glowing write-up in the latest Highgrader - admittedly, seven or eight years ago that would have been a big deal but ever since Angus gave it up it's been a shell of its former self and it's readership is declining and is largely out-of-riding. And then Bisson's dealing with Rickard on the other side - a strong Native candidate that, if McGuinty wasn't so unpopular in the North. Each is eating into Bisson's core areas - Spacek in the northern hamlets and Timmins, and Rickard into the sizeable Native vote. Bisson will carry but the realignment of northern Ontario is well under-way.
    11 09 21 A.S.
    It's a little ambiguous to claim that this is ‘not a very NDP riding’--what *is*, then?--though if one wants further proof to that effect, there's also the case of Allan Pope being the last elected north-of-Mike Harris provincial PC back in '87. Upon his retirement, who was his successor? Gilles Bisson. All I'll say now is: the Tories might have their best result here since the days of Allan Pope--tokenly.
    11 09 19 Mrs TJB
    Gilles will win this riding without a doubt. Hes an experienced politician with an excellent reputation for hard work and representing his riding.
    11 09 18 Pete B.
    Let me turn my attention to predicting results in the North. In general NDP should finish as the dominant party in this region. The Northland/Allied Diesel contract and the Norhern debate are hurting the government severely here. Liberals will have a hard time holding on to more than 1 or 2 seats.
    With Hampton's retirement, this is one of the 2 safest Northern seats for the NDP. An easy win.
    11 09 13 MV
    Not a very NDP riding (which one part have elected both figures like René Brunelle and René Fontaine) but Bisson have a very good personal vote.
    Ironically, his personal vote is strong enough that he did better in 1995 than 1990 which is a good indication that some people in this riding are voting more for the person than for the party or leader.
    When Bisson retires, this could go however in any sense.
    11 08 16 L
    Support for Gilles Bisson and the NDP is strong in Kapuskasing, Hearst and Timmins. Response to his message has been favourable. Gilles works hard, solves people's problems and has two decades of experience. The Liberals have not respected the North with its policies and the Tory experience with Mike Harris is still fresh in the minds of voters.
    11 05 26 jeff316
    So it turns out that Kapuskasing mayor and hifi-store owner Al Spacek is taking the Conservative nod. Interesting turn of events as Bisson is strong in the francophone hamlets along Highway 11 but Spacek's name means little in vote-rich Timmins. I don't think Spacek's nomination do much to hurt Bisson's chances. The question is a) whether Spacek will be able to come in second, and then build on that to win once Bisson retires?, and b) when will Bisson retire? On one hand, he's held the seat for 21 years, but on the other hand the guy is only 54.
    11 05 04 L
    The NDP are clearly entrenched in Timmins-James Bay. Bisson is a veteran politician who has a reputation of hard work. The constituents are happy with him and I do not see a change in this riding.
    11 03 24 jeff316
    Well-liked and hard-working, Bisson will win, although the Conservatives could come in second if the relatively inoffensive mayor of Timmins takes the plunge as a means of shoring up recognition for a run when Bisson retires.
    11 03 18 John S.
    Although I do think the NDP will win again, expect to see large gains for the PCs if the current Mayor of Timmins (Tom Laughren) decides to run for them. They have been in discussions for a while, and even have done phone polls. If Laughren does in fact run for the PCs, I could see this race become a lot closer than it has ever been.
    11 02 18 binriso
    Fairly close here last time, though the NDP should hold their three Northern Ontario seats, and likely gain a couple more.

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