Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:23:00

Constituency Profile


Aulbrook, Randy

Bonin, Denis

Courville, Gerry

Danese, Tina

Vanthof, John

David Ramsay


  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election

    2007 Result:


    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    11 10 05 Ed
    The PC Party has come a long way in the federal election and also in this provincial election. Randy Aulbrook has worked hard and could pull off a victory. Based on central polls it looks like a minority government. Regardless of who wins, I suspect we will be back at the polls in six months to a year. PC support will only grow stronger. I think that Randy Aulbrook will win by a few hundred votes. Expect a very close race here.
    11 10 05 John
    This is going to be a very tight race. With the polls showing a minority government, the people have a big choice to make. This will defininitely be between John vanthof and Randy Aulbrook. NDP had a strong 2007 showing, but like every other riding, the 2007 polls are not relevant. Aulbrook winning the sign war it seems like with the amount of signs I've seen around the riding. I believe the PCs have a small lead and will fend off Vanthof and the NDP. However, this can go anyway. This will come down to the rural strength of Vanthof and the Urban strength of Aulbrook. Aulbrook has shown a lot more presence though, I see the man all over the place with those trucks and I haven't seen Vanthof out too much. Bonin has no chance being from the most southern part of the riding and the amount of people upset with McGuinty, I haven't talked to anyone who says they are voting for the Liberals, even if they had in the past. Going to be tight, probably won't find out till midnight, but I think Aulbrook pulls off a slight win. Just one mans opinion.
    11 09 26 John in Matheson
    I think people are putting too much stock in the 2007 numbers that are no longer relevant. 2008 and 2011 federal numbers are a better reflection on what is happening in this riding. I think it should be too close to call at least until after the leadership debate Tuesday night. I believe Randy Aulbrook is leading here and that the Liberal vote is way down due to McGuinty not showing up at the debate in Thunder Bay.
    11 09 25 A.S.
    Mike: 95-99-03 were Liberal-PC battles because the NDP was in the toilet those years, not because it's a ?natural? state of affairs--besides, if that were the case, then Ramsay would have had no reason to win *as a New Democrat* in 1985. Right now, Vanthof's '07 near-win (reinforced by federal incumbencies) gives him a practically incumbentesque upper hand--though I agree the Tories are a wild card which shouldn't be dismissed; but you can say the same about the Liberals, too. (Hey, Sturgeon Falls may have been part of Mike Harris's seat once upon a time; but it was the most Liberal-leaning part of said seat. And that's where their candidate's from.)
    11 09 24 Double J
    David Ramsay was a cabinet minister but barely hung on to this riding in 2007. This time Ramsay has retired and there is no stopping the NDP from taking Timiskaming Cochrane. John Vanthof of the NDP will be the next MPP for this riding. There is no way a northern riding like this will go Tory.
    That just isn't possible. The Liberals will finish second here.
    11 09 21 Mike
    L it has been mentioned many times now that 2007 was a blip in every electoral district based off weak PC Leadership, the faith based schools issue destroyed the PC easily in this riding, as well as the weak candidate that was nominated. If you have followed the elections at all before 2007, you would realize that this riding is very Liberal-PC based, don't count me wrong, I do realize the NDP support is soaring, but outside of 2007 which should not be considered in any stretch of the imagination as far as polling goes. The 95-99-2003 elections were all very much Liberal and PC battles, with of course David Ramsay taking each election. Randy Aulbrook is a very strong PC candidate, and this will most definitely come down to John and Randy in a close finish. I believe Randy will take by a small margin due to a sense of change from the current Liberal government that only the riding could get under a member whose party is likely to be in government, unlike John and the NDP government.
    11 09 21 L
    I wonder how the Conservative Party will vault into first place after running a distant third last election. NDP John Vanthof placed a close second to Liberal David Ramsey (600 votes). And then to dismiss the Liberal vote altogether when the Liberals won the riding makes the prediction of Tory victory difficult to believe.
    11 09 21 AD
    This open seat seems to be an easy pick up for the NDP. They are doing well in the latest batch of polls in the north, and it would reflect recent electoral behaviour. I predict NDP win.
    11 09 19 NewLiskeardGuy
    This one is not even close. In the Northern third of the riding (the third that went NDP last time) the NDp seems to be even more dominant. In the bottom third (the Liberal stronghold last time) the liberals remain a force but the area recently elected a NDP MP and as a result, are seeing a more even race. In the middle third, Temiskaming, (the real battleground) the NDP is surging. At the major fall event in the community, the Fall Fair and Fall Fair Parade, the NDP brought in Andrea Horwath and along with dozens of orange clad volunteers, 2 campaign busses along with Charlie Angus and the candidate absolutely wowed the community. My original prediction was ndp 45, lib 35, con. 20. I am feeling that that might be underestimating the ndp support at this stage.
    11 09 18 Pete B.
    Let me turn my attention to predicting results in the North. In general NDP should finish as the dominant party in this region. The Northland/Allied Diesel contract and the Norhern debate are hurting the government severely here. Liberals will have a hard time holding on to more than 1 or 2 seats.
    This one is too close to call. It could go al three ways although an NDP pickup is most likely.
    11 09 18 Joe
    If the NDP follow 2007 polls and think this riding is going to be a cakewalk, they will be in for a rude awakening. 2007 was a write off in terms of polls across the riding, especially in Timiskaming-Cochrane with weak leadership from John Tory and an equally weak, not hardworking PC Candidate. Randy Aulbrook is a strong, well known candidate who will poll a high number within the riding and with a strong PC leader in Tim Hudak. NDP and PC platforms are very similar and the area remembers how a member not on the side of government = no results. Expect a tight PC-NDP race, with PCs gaining a lot of liberal votes, as well as gained support from their core conservatives who certainly had no confidence in their supporter and candidate in the 2007 election who voted NDP. And to the poster who used the info from the 2007 election, the voter turnout was tremendously decreased compared to 2003 and 1999 election, so NDP vote gain from the Liberals was minimal at best. With a strong candidate from the heart of the riding, who is very well known, and working very hard with a strong platform, whom the NDP are copying for the most part, I would not be surprised to see this riding go PC, with a large gain in Liberal votes, as well as possible NDP votes due to the ridings familiarity with no results from non-government elected members.
    11 09 18 jeff316
    This is shaping up to be a very close two-way battle between the NDP and the Conservatives. The PCs are targetting Kenora-Rainy River and this riding as their new provincial northern beachhead. They might get both. The poster below is very much correct to recognize the previous drop in the PC vote due to Tory's school-funding issues, making last election's race useless for predictions. And, as stated, Angus' appeal is non-existent in the south. That being said, you have to take the usual biased comments (the bus has been to Cochrane, PCs ?working harder?, ?Frank Klees' EA? (???) with a grain of partisan salt. T-JB MP Charlie Angus is a big boost to Vanthof in the north and central part of the riding - Angus is huge in the Tri Town (there were Angus signs up in New Liskeard last federal election, and that's not even in his riding!) and he's practically Mr. Cobalt, that's where he's from. NDP strong in the north, PCs strong in the south, so it's the Tri Town that's going to decide this fight. Either Vanthof's strong ag connections and rural cred will be enough to push him over the top, or Aulbrook's strength in the urban areas will be enough to fend him off. I'm leaning for the latter, but you never know.
    11 09 17 binriso
    The PCs havent gotten over 30% of the vote here since the riding was redistributed and that includes 2 elections where they had Northern Ontario-based leaders and one where they achieved a majority government. Last election represented only a 7% drop with John Tory as leader and this riding was in-line with significant NDP gains (vote-wise) in Northern Ontario last election of which the majority were from the Liberals (NOT the PCs). Add to that the NDP outpolling their 2007 levels by 5-10 percent and the same candidate running who polled about 41% last time and there would have to be a titanic collapse in the Liberal vote (below 10 percent) for this to go anything but NDP.
    11 09 15 ABL
    2007 in many ways does not show the true colors of this riding, the NDP surge was largely based off poor leadership from then PC Leader John Tory and a protest vote to oust incumbent David Ramsay. This riding is typically a Liberal/PC battle, with 2007 being way off radar. Expect PC Candidate Randy Aulbrook to have a very strong showing with this riding, gaining back PC protest votes against Ramsay, and turning a lot of red votes blue. John Vanthof did have a good 2007 showing on the backs of PC Supporters voting NDP. Will be a very close PC/NDP race, with Randy Aulbrook coming out the victor. Even John Vanthof agreed in a riding newspaper that he expects the next Provincial Government to be PC.
    11 09 10 Marshall Howard Bader
    Libs won by a small margin last time. The lost and incumbent. Lib candidate is not from riding. NDP has same candidate as last time and add to this the Tories making an effort and pulling votes this time. It all equals a big NDP margin here.
    11 08 16 L
    I think that there will be strong support for John Vantoff across party lines in the Timiskiming-KL-Iroquois Falls area that will outdistance the Liberal support in Sturgeon Falls. Should be a clear victory for the NDP, especially since Vantoff came second last election by 400 votes.
    11 08 13 Canadian Election Atlas
    At present, I believe this riding will go NDP. The party is polling much better than in 2007, and did very well here in that election, despite losing. This seat will also be an open seat with the retirement of David Ramsay. The northern part of this riding is NDP territory, and we saw the party make inroads in the Tri-Cities region in the federal election.
    11 07 31 eb119
    With Ramsay not running again, and with the Liberals plummeting in the polls, the NDP will match their federal party's standings in the north, and pick up a few Liberal seats here.
    11 07 12 R.O.
    This riding should easily flip ndp especially now that longtime liberal mpp David Ramsey is retiring, however the north remains oddly loyal to the liberals and they have already found a new candidate Denis Bonin. but i think in the end its more likely this riding goes ndp than it stays liberals. but it?s too early to call an ndp pick up until election starts to take shape. Conservative vote should also go up here as i can't see them getting 13% again that likely due to John Tory collapse and we should see Hudak make improvements although pc's still likely come in 3rd here.
    11 03 24 jeff316
    John Vanthof is a formidable candidate for the NDP, but this will be a true three-horse race in what is probably the most challenging riding in Ontario to win. All three parties have their core in this riding - bedrock Liberal voters in Sturgeon and other francophone areas, New Dems in Kirkland and Iroquois Falls, and cranky conservatives in rural Temiskaming. The Conservatives have always done well in Temiskaming (until Tory blew it with his religious school-funding) so what may seem like an easy NDP win is anything but. There is a lot riding on this race - if Vanthof can make it in, he could become a new beachhead for agricultural votes for the NDP.
    Date 11 Art
    With MPP Ramsay gone and the Liberals failing policies across the north plus the close call last time, this riding will swing hard to NDP.
    11 03 14 tritown guy
    An NDP lean has become a sure thing in my books. The NDP dominated Englehart, Earlton, Kirkland Lake, Iroquois Falls, Cochrane, and were beaten in Temiskaming Shores and Surgeon Falls.
    The Libs have nominated a candidate from Sturgeon. they will do well there (like they did last time) but will lose almost all their ground in Temiskaming Shores.
    There is very little community of interest between the extreme south of the riding (Sturgeon) and the rest of the riding. As someone who lives in Temiskaming Shores, I can say first hand,that the locals here (who do not vote for the party but for the person traditionally) will see someone from the south as an outsider, and will vote for the New Democrat who lives very close by, and who is involved with many local boards and committees.
    11 03 07 MF
    This is a top-tier target for the NDP. David Ramsay (himself a former NDPer) isn't running again and the NDP came within 600 votes of taking it last time.
    11 03 01 TemCochvoter
    This riding will go NDP. The same candidate that almost upset David Ramsey, John Vantoff (when he was a cabinet minister) is running again, and is receiving a whole lot of establishment Lib. and PC support based on his good reputation and connections. The part of the riding that lost it for John was the Temiskaming Shores area. This area is falling in around John this time. Word on the street is the Liberals are having a hard time finding a good candidate. The other interesting thing at play is that Hudak and the tories is spending a little attention towards the riding. The surely know that this riding is not winnable for them, but also surely realize that the next best thing to a PC win in a few areas, is an NDP win.
    11 02 02 binriso
    Highly Likely NDP takeover here, with the incumbent not running again and the NDP just a couple hundred votes away.

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