Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2011

Thunder Bay-Superior North

Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:23:00

Constituency Profile


Gallo, Tony

Gravelle, Michael

Kyle, Scot

LeBlanc, Anthony

Mantis, Steve

Hon Michael Gravelle


  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election

    2007 Result:


    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    11 10 05 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    The last minute Angus-Reid poll has NDP support in the north at 78% while the Liberals have only 14% (they got 32 % in the last election in the north). With numbers like that the NDP will sweep most ridings except the Liberal core areas of support like SSM and Sudbury.
    11 10 04 Tyrone
    Time to call this one: with the Liberals in majority territory, there's no reason that the Northwest kicks out their hard-working Cabinet Minister, despite that NDP surge in the north. Gravelle and Bartolucci will join Orazietti - the rest are too close to call.
    11 10 04 mshaw
    Debate at the auditorium last week was a two person show between Gravelle and LeBlanc. NDP are going to get their supporters out, no question, but Mantis is not inspiring anyone else. Will come down to who gets their vote out. Poll on the weekend showed the tories tripling support since last election in this riding. That won't be enough, but LeBlanc appears to be gaining momentum heading into thursday. Could go any way, but based on the volume of former Gravelle voters I've spoken to who say they will vote for LeBlanc shows this could be the biggest surprise result in the province. A true three way race.
    11 10 04 Daniel
    If Kenora goes Blue then this can go blue. Reality is people like Mr. Leblanc's background. This will be extremely close though and likely all three parties are in the race.
    11 10 02 A.S.
    Who would have thought than a guy who was reelected with 72.45% of the vote in 2003 (the highest in Ontario that year!) would be endangered two elections later? I mean, Gravelle *shouldn't* have been--and maybe he can still do it; in a way, this is like Thunder Bay-Atikokan with more in the Liberal plate and less in the Tory plate, relatively speaking...
    11 10 01 Marshall Howard Bader
    The rising Tory vote here will hand the seat back to the NDP.
    11 09 29 Peggy
    This race is always one between the Liberals and NDP. The PCs have not been competitive in this riding in generations, and though they are running a good campaign this time that will mainly sap the support of the Liberals - they are likely to be the spoilers for Gravelle and help the NDP win.
    Both Gravelle and the NDP's Mantis are likeable candidates and have an extensive support base here in Thunder Bay, which is crucial for winning. It will be a close race but with Gravelle only getting a couple thousand votes more that the NDP last time in this riding, and the Liberals doing worse this time (and the NDP and PCs better), I'm calling this one for the NDP.
    11 09 29 C Unit
    Steve Mantis' performance at the debates and his many years of community involvement are paying off. This one looks like its going ONDP. The Mantis campaign has signs all over the place, way more than the other parties, and the Tories are not in this one at all. Not a surprise in this region, this one comes down to the Libs and the ONDP and Gravelle is not looking very strong.
    11 09 21 JB
    Since my comment in March, this race is still TCTC, but since I have to predict, I'm calling a Liberal victory by a very slim margin.
    The NDP has a lackluster candidate, and like Pete B said, this area will want some sort of rep inside a potential Liberal government, since the other TBay riding will likely flop NDP.
    Gravelle does have a good organization behind him, which should just put him over the top.
    11 09 21 AD
    The idea of a PC win where they only got 10% of the vote in the last two electionseems far fetched to say the least. This seems to be one that I think is going NDP. In the last Angus Reid poll they were at about 50% in the northern region. That should indicate enough of a rise in NDP votes for a win in this riding.
    11 09 18 Pete B.
    Let me turn my attention to predicting results in the North. In general NDP should finish as the dominant party in this region. The Northland/Allied Diesel contract and the Norhern debate are hurting the government severely here. Liberals will have a hard time holding on to more than 1 or 2 seats.
    This one is too close to call. It could be the third Liberal seat in the North or it could go NDP. I believe that it will stay Liberal, both because of Gravelle and because the other Thunder Bay seat is going NDP.
    11 09 18 mshaw
    This is a very interesting election in TBay. Tories have been non-existant in past several elections, this time around they appear to be in the thick of it or perhaps in the lead. Gravelle is running an independent style campaign, and Mantis (NDP) is a lightweight. Globe & Mail called LeBlanc (PC) a lock for cabinet, folks here appear to be listening (based on lawn signs). Will be very tight, but wouldn't be shocked to see the PCs come up the middle.
    11 09 18 Daniel
    I understand the history in this riding but things are changing. First in the 2011 Federal Election the liberals were in third and the tories second. Second the liberals and the ndp i predict will split the left vote and the tories will go up the middle. Fianlly I can't see the city of Thunder Bay having four politicians outside of government if Hudak pulls off a win. Also Dalton Mcguinty has decided not to debate in the North, this is going to be close.
    11 09 14 binriso
    NDP are probably going to win at least 7 seats in Northern Ontario here, and this would be one of them for sure in that case.
    11 09 13 Tyrone
    Gravelle is well-liked, hard-working, and has a good organization behind him. The Tories are running a decent candidate for the first time in ages, but if they triple their usual vote total, they still can't win. Mantis is inexperienced and over his head. Even if the Liberals melt down at a provincial level, this should be one of the safest Liberal seats in the North, along with Orazietti in the Soo and Bartolucci in Sudbury. The question is, if they Liberals win, is Gravelle due for a promotion in McGuinty's Cabinet? It was very interesting to note that in today's Ipsos/Global poll, McGuinty's highest level of support was in the North (45%) and Hudak's the least (22%) on the ‘best Premier’ question.
    11 03 24 jeff316
    Gravelle is affable, likeable, popular and is essentially an NDPer in all but name so he'll squeak it out here.
    11 03 08 JB
    TCTC. Gravelle dropped 25% between '03 and '07, meanwhile the NDP gained 23% during that time. Even though he's the Minister of Northern Development, Mines and Forestry, he's not doing a very good job at ‘developing’ this entire region. The ‘Ring of Fire’ north of Greenstone is being handled very poorly. Due to the province's high electricity costs, a significant number of jobs in this area will likely be lost to Quebec or Manitoba because they have cheaper rates.
    Depending on the candidate, the NDP could steal this.

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