Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2011

Thunder Bay-Atikokan

Prediction Changed
2011-10-07 10:29:22

Constituency Profile


Gilbert, Fred

Kozorys, Mary

Mauro, Bill

McMenemy, Marvin Robert

Milnes, Jonathan

Bill Mauro


  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election

    2007 Result:


    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    11 09 29 A.S.
    Weird how Lyn McLeod's stronghold collapsed into a near-NDP upset in '07--what now stands in the way of an NDP call is (a) it isn't John Rafferty, and (b)the polling allusions to untold PC strength 'way out here. (Hey, why not; it was the closest thing to a Canadian Alliance pickup in Northern Ontario in '00.)
    11 09 29 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Dalton is not liked in the north at all and the NDP are going to reap the benefits. Granted Rafferty was a very strong candidate and the close race in '07 was in part on his name. Never the less, we anticipate an NDP win. In addition, watch the PC party do better here than they have in the recent past. Enough to make this one interesting for the PCs in elections to come.
    11 09 28 R.O.
    After Mcguinty didn't even show up at the northern debate in Thunder bay and instead spent the day in Toronto and acted like the whole thing didn't even matter i would be shocked if the area re-elected both liberal mpp's . he was only re-enforcing the perception that his government is Toronto centric and out of touch when it comes to northern issues. the forum poll has both Thunder bay seats in margin of error territory , i'd be surprised if ndp does not pick up at least one. however the ndp would of done alot better if John Rafferty still there candidate here but there likely to make gains up north anyways.
    11 09 28 Nathan
    Mary was looking strong due to her well-organized sign campaign, but now that she has been in the public eye at speaking engagements and debates, all the wind is out of her sail. She has nothing to say, greatly lacks in intelligence and eloquence and looks like a complete dud running simply on her party's coat tails.
    11 09 26 Mur
    Mary Kozorys is a complete joke. She Was a Conservative back in the late 80's and into the 90's.. then jumped ship to the Liberals. Now she is an NDPer.. what the heck will she be after she loses this election?? This is the message that needs to be out there about how many times she has jumped from party to party.. says alot about her.
    11 09 18 Pete B.
    Let me turn my attention to predicting results in the North. In general NDP should finish as the dominant party in this region. The Northland/Allied Diesel contract and the Norhern debate are hurting the government severely here. Liberals will have a hard time holding on to more than 1 or 2 seats.
    This one is definitely going to the NDP.
    11 09 17 Nicholas R.
    Here in the Atikokan part of the riding the sign war is easily being dominated by Mary Kozorys. Bill Mauro is in second and Fred Gilbert is in a very distant third. We have a sign for Mary in our yard. I'm heading to Thunder Bay tomorrow and I'll keep my eyes peeled for who is winning the sign war there. I'll have an update within the next couple of days for Thunder Bay-Atikokan.
    11 09 07 JB
    Since my last March comment, I’m now predicting an NDP pick up. Bill Mauro has done an amazing job at keeping his face in local publications, but voters have grown extremely tired with the Liberals, both provincially and federally. The NDP support here is very strong.
    Former Lakehead University president and PC candidate Fred Gilbert is popular, and he’ll likely steal more votes away from the Libs than the NDP.
    NDP leader Andrea Horwath has been focusing a lot of attention on northern Ontario because she knows that she has great support in this region.
    11 08 13 Canadian Election Atlas
    At present, I believe this riding will go NDP. The party is polling much better than in 2007, and did very well here in that election, despite losing. I believe this was the closest riding in the province in 2007. It won't take much for the NDP to win here. Also, the federal riding of Thunder Bay-Rainy River is held by the NDP.
    11 07 11
    NDP will get in this riding no problemo.They already have people in there federally
    11 07 02 Nicholas R.
    This one will be a very interesting race to watch. The NDP have made leaps and bounds here and were less than 50 votes away last time. However, that was with John Rafferty running, he has now claimed the federal riding here and therefor won't be running in the provincial election. It will be interesting to see how the new provincial NDP candidate will do in this riding now. I do still believe the NDP can take this one, it's just going to be a harder win than it would've been with Rafferty and that is why I think the NDP can still claim this one from the Liberals. Also, considering the Ontario Provincial Liberals aren't doing very well in Ontario anymore and the people want change, to finally be rid of McGuinty.
    11 03 11 JB
    TCTC. This race totally depends on the NDP nomination, and how popular they are in Thunder Bay. Rafferty was a very tough opponent, and has since become the federal MP.
    As much as I dislike Mauro, he still has his core supporters within the city. This is going to be another toss-up on election night. The PCs don't stand a chance here.
    11 03 07 MF
    The lowest hanging fruit for the NDP...almost certainly a pickup.
    11 02 02
    Closest riding last election, NDP candidate from last time is now the Federal MP, within the same borders, likely a close NDP win here.

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