Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2011

Scarborough-Rouge River

Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:20:30

Constituency Profile


Balkissoon, Bas

Kim, Ken

Liao, Felix

Rosch, Raphael

Shan, Neethan

Singh, George B

Walker, Daniel

Bas Balkissoon


  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election

    2007 Result:


    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    11 10 03 Shawn Bala
    This riding is going to be an interesting one to watch on Election night. Federally the NDP have done real well with through the Orange Crush that swept through the nation. The Federal MP Sitsabiesan has been aggressively tapping into her base to ensure this riding swings Provincially as well. Her strong initiative and recent popularity will bode well for Neethan. Yet Bas' long time incumbancy and strongly entrenched roots in this community as an MPP and Councillor will be difficult to beat. Neethan will not make it this time but I will not be surprised if Bas decides not to run after this. My prediction will show Bas' winning with close to 50-52% support with Neethan taking away much of his base. Neethan's support in the Filipinio, Carribean and Tamil community has grown since his recent municipal campaign.
    11 09 27 jeff316
    Without Balkissoon this might be interesting. But with him running, as others have said it is not even close, for the NDP at least. Neethan Shan isn’t as a great a candidate as he thinks he is. An NDPer of convenience (when he lost a Liberal nomination a few elections ago) he’s run too many times for too many things in too many constituencies. The NDP and the PCs will put up a competitive battle for second but Balkissoon will easily hold this riding for the Liberals.
    11 09 19 RLam
    Are you kidding? TOO CLOSE TO CALL :S haha In my opinion Bas will take this riding by over 50%. He did so much for this community and he listens to people's concerns - he is experienced and running his 9th election. As for Neethan Shan, I think he will come 2nd but for sure he wont beat Bas, he cant even win Raymond Cho.
    11 09 11 A.S.
    The NDP *does* have a strong candidate--Neethan Shan--the trouble for him is, the *Liberals* have a strong candidate, too, and an incumbent to boot (remember: federally, it was an open seat). If Shan were running where he ran in 2007, he'd have a clear chance; but while a strong competitive NDP bid makes for excellent Rathika-mania consolidation optics, Balkissoon is a mighty mountain to climb--more so than even his ex-federal counterpart Derek Lee, dare I say. Now, if Balkissoon himself jumped to the NDP, *then* we'd be talking landslide. (Funny how we can safely say this now; prior to the last federal election, such a claim would have been wishful-thinking absurdity.)
    11 08 29 Marshall Howard Bader
    This was an NDP landslide federally. Could be interesting if the NDP runs a strong candidate.
    11 08 18 Joe Issac
    The federal NDP managed to pull an upset in this spring election and their provincial counterparts are likely to take this riding too.
    NDP candidate Neethan Shan is a popular community activist with ties in the Tamil community. The ability to have strong ties with the Tamil community is important as it helped MP Sitsabaiesan win the riding with over 40% support.
    Neethan Shan was also a former school trustee in Markham, and has strong ties with the NDP due to previous campaigns in the municipal and federal level. I think he will be able to beat MPP Balkissoon by a small margin.
    My prediction NDP: 38% OLP: 36% OPC: 24% OGP: 2%
    11 05 14 binriso
    Surprise!! The NDP just won the Liberals previously safest seat in Ontario in the Federal Election. That may invigorate the base here a bit and make this a much closer race but the Liberals will still hold on most likely. Even though they are only down a few points province wide I could see the Liberals losing many more votes here, possibly enough to put them in the 45%-50% range with the PCs gaining a bit as well.
    11 02 25 seasaw
    Another easy win for OLP. Not only is Bas a great MPP, OLP has owned this riding for about three decades. The most disastrous result in this riding for OLP would be if they only got 55% of the vote.

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