Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:20:30

Constituency Profile


Apelbaum, Sam

Best, Margarett

Ellis, Gary

Oliver, Matthew

Pochkhanawala, Naoshad

Urban, Lorri

Hon Margarett R. Best


  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election

    2007 Result:


    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    11 10 04 JPM from Guildwood
    Despite a spirited campaign by neophyte PC candidate Ellis, the habitual Liberal support in this riding remains strong. While the incumbent MPP Best is weak, she's desperate to keep the best job she's ever held. There are more voters in the riding who feel akin to a single mother born in Jamaica (Best), than to a retired police officer (Ellis). Also, this is the fourth consecutive time that a police officer has run on the Conservative ticket either at the provincial or federal level. To be blunt, cop candidates resonate better with voters in ridings that are more affluent than this one. Watch for a close race where the Liberals win thanks to high turnouts and vote margins from low-income areas and the advance poll. For further insights on the campaign, visit http://VolunteerActionNow.com
    11 10 03 Interested Observer
    This will be a PC pick-up and maybe only one of two or three in 416. Here are the facts: Gary Ellis is a far superior candidate and has shown that in all the community debates where Margarett has embarrassed herself with her lack of knowledge of the facts, her inability to answer the simplest of questions and her increasingly shrill tone; Ellis has deeper community roots that extend far beyond the traditional Tory base; the McGuinty gov't's cynical ‘moratorium’ on off-shore wind has not fooled anyone; Ellis has a much better ground campaign than any PC candidate has had in this riding in decades. It will be close and we could be up all night waiting for the results, but watch this race closely.
    11 10 02 Double J
    Margarett Best won Scarborough Guildwood by 5000 votes in 2007. She won't have that big a victory this time but will hold on because Tory Gary Ellis hasn't got any support from the Hudak central campaign. The Tories have dropped in the polls since the writ was called and are a bad third in Toronto. Ellis may be one of the best candidates Hudak recruited in Toronto but without any movement by the Tories in the city, Ellis can't win. So Best will get another term in office.
    11 09 29 MF
    It's interesting that Neethan Shan's '07 showing demonstrated that the NDP has a lot of potential in Guildwood, they haven't seemed to put much effort in targeting it and they're running a minimal campaign. This was one of the few remaining 416 seats for the Liberals - plus McGuinty is not Ignatieff and Hudak is not Harper. Ellis won't be able to withstand the unpopularity of Hudak (and Ford) in Toronto. Margaret Best will be re-elected.
    11 09 26 J.O.
    Best is a cabinet minister and it's highly unlikely that with the Conservatives polling so low in Toronto that this seat is up for grabs. She has a strong team working door-to-door with her and she's taking nothing for granted. John McKay held this riding for the Liberals when Harper won his majority so it would be a shock to see this riding fall out of Liberal hands now. McKay prevailed with the baggage of an unpopular leader. McGuinty on the other hand is consistently regarded as the top choice for premier in the polls. Best will come out on top here.
    11 09 23 Not Non-Partisan
    It really is amazing to see the response that Ellis gets when he tells people that he was the local Police Superintendent here. They immediately volunteer support. He was the obvious winner of the Goldhawk debate and is just more qualified than his opponents and has a better campaign.
    The New Democrat, Urban, is just not in the race and will not get the share of the vote that Shan did (unless the Layton factor is much more significant than I think).
    People in Scarborough Guildwood are simply not engaged in the election. When will they be? Perhaps the turnout will be tiny.
    11 09 23 AD
    This may be close as the incumbent seems to be a weaker candidate. Regardless, I don't see the PCs gaining enough votes here to beat the incumbent effect. Unless the LPO drops in support below what we've seen thus far in the polls, I predict a Liberal hold.
    11 09 17 A.S.
    Tough call. Best's relative 2007 weakness had more to do with her non-incumbency and the Neethan Shan surge. Federally, Scarb-G actually stayed Liberal rather than going Conservative a la Scarborough Centre; yet until then it was in fact commonly considered the stronger Tory prospect, perhaps because of the Bluffs-neighbourhood-generated perception of greater affluence--and it seems like the provincial PCs are still treating it thusly. But the federal aftermath compounded by Shan's past result suggests that it may not be off the mark to treat it as a three-way...or even that where Neethan Shan ran in 2007 is more likely to go NDP than where Neethan Shan's running now. (A low-40s standing Grit mandate vs a mid-60s standing Grit mandate explains that logic.)
    11 09 11 Not Non-Partisan
    I can't believe that this is not at least in the 'too close' column. I think it will go Tory. Gary Ellis, the highly respected former homocide cop is running a very good campaign against a lackluster Lib incumbent. He an obvious front-bencher and volunteers and resources will come to his effort.
    11 07 24 MF
    Guildwood is a bit interesting because while it remained with the federal Liberal rump, the Liberals won this one in the last provincial election with a lower percentage of the vote compared to other 416 ridings. Note a very strong showing by the NDP's Neethan Shan in '07, who has now moved over to the NDP-held Rouge River (where he also run municipally against Raymond Cho). Federally this probably could have won with a stronger candidate, but the NDP opted for basically a paper candidate. It will be interesting to see who they run this time. The Conservatives could potentially win this by coming up the middle as well. This looks like a three-way race.
    11 02 19 BillyBoy
    Even though Liberal incumbent Best is a weak candidate and the Liberals are in trouble outside of Toronto, the PCers parachuted in Dr. Gary Ellis and the riding assn is not happy. They are in terrible shape in more ways than one and the Liberals will hang on to this seat.

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