Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2011

Scarborough Centre

Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:20:30

Constituency Profile


Driver, David

Duguid, Brad

Mathurin, Kathleen

Mole, Jeff

Williams, Carol

Hon Brad Duguid


  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election

    2007 Result:


    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    11 10 01 Keith
    I've seen the NDP candidate around my neighbourhood. She's been around and her signs are going up hard on Warden, Kennedy, McCowan/Danforth, Birchmount and Pharmacy.
    I think she has a really good chance in this race.
    11 09 29 Union Guy
    Duguid is a high profile cabinet minister and is very visible in the riding. He cannot be compared to the former back bench Liberal MP Cannis who lost SC federally. Liberals won over 50% of the vote here in 2007. Liberals clearly are winning the sign and ground war. NDP should beat the PC's for 2nd place. Expect a Liberal win and maybe an eventual leadership bid by Duguid.
    11 09 13 A.S.
    To those who seek to extrapolate from the federal results, keep in mind that Brad Duguid is a far superior (at least in profile terms) constituency representative to John Cannis, who only really survived as long as he did through Chretien-and-post-Chretien-era 416 autopilot. It'd take a thorough Liberal implosion to take Duguid out...and for all one knows, given recent Scarborough trends, it might well be the NDP, not PC, as prime beneficiary here.
    11 09 12 YNoor
    The Conservative Party won in the Federal Election so I feel that the PC's will win here, however probably by a tight margin.
    11 09 08 binriso
    11 08 24 Joe Issac
    Tim Hudak was in this riding the other day campaigning. Local PC candidate Carol Williams has been canvassing, while the Liberals have not done much yet. If Hudak wins a majority, Williams is likely to be in cabinet.
    However, the Liberals still have the advantage in riding. Scarborough as a whole leans more towards the left than North York or Etobicoke. The Tories only won Scarborough-Center due to vote splitting. The Ontario NDP is unlikely to surge to 30% in this riding like their federal counterparts, and as a result I think Brad Duguid will win.
    11 08 01 JV
    The entire country is facing a conservative shift. Scarborough Centre surprised many by going conservative federally and those voters will be even more anxious to cast their votes provincially as well. Carol Williams has been canvassing heavily, while Brad Dugiud is using a mail campaign. The NDP candidate is nowhere to be seen. This may be close but I am calling for the PCs to win here.
    11 07 17 LReyes
    It will be a very close race but people are exhausted with liberal policies and the rising cost of living in Ontario. The respect that Brad Duguid has in our riding is unmistakable, but his association with Dalton McGuinty and the Liberal Party will be his ultimate downfall.
    11 07 11 Pete
    This riding is held by the Minister for Energy and Infrastructure and as such, Minister Duguid will have a lot of opposition especially after the anger created by the rise in hydro bills and the liberal green energy act. Scarborough Centre went Conservative in a surprise win, when Roxanne James quietly unseated Liberal John Cannis after being Liberal MP for 17 years. Likewise, the conservative trend has also made inroads into Scarborough Centre with a vast majority of citizens voting in Rob Ford in the mayoral election, a known member of the Ontario PC Party. Minister Duguid will face a major challenge in beating his PC opponent, Carol Williams, and if he does claim a victory on October 6th, he will shock a lot of political pundits.
    11 06 09 SB
    The federal Conservatives won this riding with only 35.5%. I have a hard time believing that the Ontario PCs will do much better. Local PC candidate Carol Williams is a liability.
    11 02 28 SB
    Like the other ridings in Scarborough, this one will be an easy pick up for the Liberals. Even if the Liberal support collapses, Scarborough Center will comfortably vote Liberal.

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