Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2011

Northumberland-Quinte West

Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:37:37

Constituency Profile


McLarty, Jeffrey

Mees, Kira

Milligan, Rob

Rieger, Richard Martin

Rinaldi, Lou

Smith Torrie, Judy

Lou Rinaldi


  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election

    2007 Result:


    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    11 10 04 A.S.
    Re Cobourg: as Caroline Di Cocco will tell you, fumbling local hospital issues can be politically fatal. Still, the Liberals are the incumbent party; the '07 margin was surprisingly wide given that the opponent was the spouse of the previous office-holder; and for a rural-leaning Ontario seat, Northumberland-QW's ‘natural’ conservatism tends to be more shallow than one might expect...residual Red Toryism, one supposes. It's the kind of seat which a last-minute provincewide Grit swing could salvage from the jaws of defeat, in other words. Though who knows if there's now a countervailing rightward provincial spillover from CFB Trenton's presence turning this into a de facto a ‘Constituency Of Heroes’...
    11 09 15 Initials WL
    Time to change the prediction on this one. Hudak and the PCs are tanking in the polls and Rob Milligan is a very weak candidate. The area has a strong conservative rural component, but it does not extend into the larger communities where most of the voters live. Rinaldi has the benefit of being the incumbent, but he was badly hurt by his lack of performance when the hospital in Couburg lost a lot of its services. There were blue signs all over the riding asking where Lou was on our hospital. He refused to meet with groups of citizens who had major concerns about this and a lot of folks will remember him for that. Kira Mees is a very impresive candidate for the NDP. Unless there is a huge change, this riding will not go PC and may have a better chance of going NDP if Rinaldi can't hang on to it. I wouldn't have believe it a month or two ago, but we have a race in NQW.
    11 09 14 Capital Voter
    The winds of fortune have not been blowing in the PC's favour for a number of months now, and with the most recent post-writ polls showing the PC support imploding, I just can't see N-QW going blue. Add to that the fact that Rob Milligan has offered very little (at least in my observation) in the way of original ideas. He has stuck to the buzz-lines and party messages like white on rice. This tactic, some like to call it ‘staying on message’ has been growing in popularity over the last few elections... why? I dunno. Voters don't seem to respond to it. I just don't see the advantage of this approach. He has also failed to answer the difficult questions facing his party's positions. His response has been to suggest that it is a matter between party leaders. This gives the voter no idea of where he stands on the matters. This is a problem because in the end, it is his name that the X will or will not go beside. Thus far, a weak candidate. Mr. Rinaldi on the other hand is very well known and has been a visible and active MPP and community leader going back many many years. Having worked for a number of years in a job that kept me very in tune with the thoughts and opinions locally (good, bad, indifferent and, yes, sometimes incoherent) the general opinion around N-QW is that Lou is a nice guy. It's hard to level a harsh criticism against the guy. While it is not to say that the other candidates don't have these qualities as well, I think that Lou's incumbency and his reputation as a tuned-in MPP will help carry him to a 3rd go-round. As a quick mention also, I don't expect to see much from the NDP or Greens. Horwath is a very capable leader but I think the unknown Mees will struggle to get the message out and convince voters. A relatively small constituency team doesn't help the cause either. Greens... expect a thousand or two votes... not much more. This riding is still a little too traditional to take that kind of leap.
    11 09 10 R.O.
    sure the riding was maybe called early but if the Ontario pc's continue to lead in most of the polls its more than likely they win this riding. it be a tough one for the liberals to hold this year as Mcguinty even less popular than in 07 and the liberals plan for an employment tax credit for new Immigrants is not going to go over well in rural Ontario where the job market is very tough. i'd say Rob Milligan has a reasonable chance of becoming mpp for the riding this year . and Northumberland is a mix of rural areas and small towns that easily re-elected its federal conservative mp and has had a few provincial conservative mpp's over the years as well.
    11 09 06 cobourgladdie
    It's gonna be close with the NDP surge look at 1990 for a clue, Libs won only just. But the rightwing surge had not happened then. So the NDP this time will take from the Libs and leave the Cons to move up. Vey mixed up
    11 08 28 Capital Voter
    Northumberland has long been a riding that votes in lock-step with the province/nation. I don't have any doubts that the votes will be close, but with the personal popularity that Lou Rinaldi brings to the table I expect he will do well in this next round. Lou's a visible part of the community and generally seen as a decent guy who understands and works hard for his riding. Count on N-QW staying red.
    11 08 13 Canadian Election Atlas
    Not so fast! A few weeks ago, I would have agreed that this riding will go PC, but the Liberals are gaining strength and a recent poll has them in a virtual tie with the Tories. This means that the Liberals may keep many of their rural seats, including this one. They do have the incumbency advantage here, after all. For now, this is a toss up.
    11 06 15 wyatt
    As Nick observed, this will be a PC pick-up. It's not a safe liberal seat, and Norlock took it in a walk in the federal race. Unless the PCs really collapse, this will be a pick-up, and could even be a pick-up if they come short of government.
    11 03 28 Nick J ‘Teddy’ Boragina
    This is the kind of rural seat that the PC Party should be able to pick up even if they do not win government.
    11 03 20 WAC
    TCTC at this point. Came over the Liberals in 2003 and if the Tories form government in 2011, it will likely have swung back.

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