Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:23:00

Constituency Profile


Fedeli, Vic

Giroux, Henri

Haig, Scott

Whiting, Catherine

Hon Monique M. Smith


  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election

    2007 Result:


    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    11 10 04 Brainstrained
    Final thoughts, unlike the previous two posters, I think Smith’s retirement improved the Liberals’ chance of holding the seat. Her poor communications skills in large gatherings and with the media gave her an arrogant, aloof and elite image among people who didn’t know her. Her retirement and the selection of a high quality candidate in Dr. Whiting, however, are not enough to withstand the anti-Liberal tide that nearly knocked off Smith four years ago. By selecting Vic Fedeli as candidate, the Tories sealed the deal for Nipissing to turn blue. Neither canadidate has been helped by their respective party’s provincial campaigns, or their leaders, though McGuinty’s behaviour has hurt Whiting, far more than Hudak’s has hurt Fedeli.
    Perhaps the thing to watch is how well the NDP’s Henri Giroux does this time. It’s his second consecutive provincial campaign, the NDP is still enjoying the Layton bounce, there are more NDP signs in more areas than before, the party seems about to dispose of several Liberal MPPs in the North, and their provincial campaign in the North was substantially better than the Liberal campaign. I don’t think they’ll come second, but they have the potential to substantially close a 9,500-vote gap from 2007.
    11 10 02 A.S.
    I'd *like* to give the Liberals a chance here, on eternal ‘more a Mike Harris than a Tory riding’ grounds--but given the '07 result, Smith's retirement, repeated Grit foot-shooting (and debate-skipping) as regards the North, and Fedeli's stature, it'd likely be in vain. (In an extreme case scenario: when's the last time the NDP's been second place in Nipissing? Which'd be even more remarkable considering that unlike the federal seat, the provincial seat does *not* extend into Timiskaming.)
    11 09 24 R.O.
    Nipissing should return to the conservatives this year , without Monique Smith running i don't honestly see how the liberals could hold the riding. it was pretty close last time so they cannot afford to lose many votes and ndp vote also likely to go up. why else would Andrea Horwath bother to visit a riding that has never voted ndp unless they know ndp doing alot better than in past years. but its very unlikely the ndp actually win the riding so Vic Fideli has the clear advantage and most well know candidate , being in municipal politics is great experience before going to queens park . running the health unit is not as high profile when compared to being mayor of North Bay.
    11 09 23 Brainstrained
    Several more weeks in now, I think Fedeli is still leading, though Whiting is running a decent campaign, and probably giving him the first electoral competition he?s ever experienced. But I don?t sense she?s closing the local gap, a gap created here and elsewhere in northern Ontario (Sudbury excepted) by the Liberal govt?s policies and attitudes.
    In fact I think both Fedeli and Whiting are more hurt by their party leaders than helped.
    Tim Hudak?s inner Mike Harris is just under the surface, raging to break out and talk nasty about immigrants or someone else again, and it?s hard to read the Tory campaign promises seriously, knowing they?ll be accompanied by some serious service cuts, a la Toronto Mayor Ford.
    Meanwhile, Dalton McGuinty stays away from the north. He is seemingly resigned to losing most of his seven seats here, knowing he can form a govt without them as long as he keeps a low, unoffensive profile elsewhere in Ontario. On second thought, staying away maybe the most effective campaign strategy McGuinty has in the north.
    Bottom line, despite Whiting?s best efforts, she?s still running behind Fedeli but the race isn?t over. With several weeks to go, Whiting may yet find the magic to overtake Fedeli, or Hudak?s inner Mike Harris may yet break out, killing Fedeli?s chances.
    11 09 22 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Giroux signs are as numerous as Whiting, while Fedeli signs out number both main competetors. With Giroux campaigning so strongly he's likely to take Liberal votes allowing Fedeli to win by a larger margin. FYI, Fedeli signs are not only on appartment properties but are on many private lawns as well.
    11 09 18 Pete B.
    Let me turn my attention to predicting results in the North. In general NDP should finish as the dominant party in this region. The Northland/Allied Diesel contract and the Norhern debate are hurting the government severely here. Liberals will have a hard time holding on to more than 1 or 2 seats.
    This will be the only PC gain in the North. Mike Harris' seat is coming home.
    11 09 12 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Just an update from on the ground in this riding. Vic is winning the sign war easily. Numerous people who are not political are supporting him (personally, if not for the PC party). Think he's got this one set.
    11 09 11 GprimeMr
    I see that everyone is predicting a PC win, I will not deny that they do have a good chance, however I believe the race is much closer then predicted. Nipissing has always been keen for both parties and both candidates are excellent people for the race. Catherine Whiting has an advantage being new in politics. Monique Smith lost popularity as MPP and Vic Fedeli has 8 years of involvement behind him. A lot of people liked him but just as much did not. His reputation of raising municipal taxes and excessive spending stand behind him. Whiting is new and doesn't have a big baggage of reputation to carry behind her, she has no apparent reason for being disliked as a candidate herself (not talking about party of past MPP, just as herself).
    As for lawn signs, we can't base candidate popularity on those. Fedeli has clearly more signs on private properties, however, have you noticed most of them are on rental properties? Landlords who own 20+ properties are putting them own their properties, but in the end, those 20 signs are 1 vote.
    I can't guarantee who will take it, but it won't be the landslide people predict.
    11 09 07 tEACh
    The Tories are way too complacent about this riding.  Fedeli was the pick of the boys’ club and has never faced any real electoral challenge in mayor campaigns. The riding is much more than the city of North Bay and voters have a long memory about the turmoil of the Harris era.  Despite the sniping from Tory diehards, the Liberal government has brought more investment into Nipissing in 8 years than Harris as MPP did in 20.  Catherine Whiting has a more than even chance to keep the riding for the Liberals.
    11 09 08 Brainstrained
    Well the battle is finally officially underway.
    Give the edge to Tory candidate and popular ex-mayor Vic Fedeli, but don’t count out Catharine Whiting, who is intelligent, tough, energetic and doesn’t give up easily. She will not let Fedeli walk away with this riding.
    Nipissing is close enough that the provincial campaign may well determine the result, as it did last time when then Tory leader John Tory’s proposal to support multiple ethnic and religious school boards easily made the difference for his local candidate, Bill Vrebosch.
    Whiting works under the burden of a Liberal government that has put the ONTC on life support, and doesn’t seem to be friendly at all to North Bay interests.
    Fedeli’s lighter burden is hoping leader Tim Hudak’s previous life as Mini-Mike Harris doesn’t come back to haunt the party.
    11 09 09 older guy
    A major benefactor? Old guy?  Really? Give me a break.  The only people that have gained anything from our retiring Liberal MPP have been the people of Sudbury.  Beds from the Ontario Hospital...moved to Sudbury.  Hospital Laundry...moved to Sudbury.  Hwy 69 has been getting way more attention over the past 8 years than hwy 11.  Not a mystery as to why.
    Cap that all off with the Metrolinx contract that could see up to 100 jobs vanish from the riding.  I wouldn’t call that being well served at all.
    Bill Vrebosh very nearly stole the seat back last time..and that was during a bad provincial Tory campaign.
    Vic.  Easy win.  My bet is 5000 plus.
    11 09 06 old guy
    Your declaration that this is a Tory gain is premature. Catherine Whiting is a great candidate. Vic Fedeli is no longer a slam dunk. Nipssing has been a major benefactor of Liberal policies.
    11 08 13 Canadian Election Atlas
    This is a fairly obvious PC pick up. In 2007, this race was very close, and with the Tories polling better than in 2007, they should win this seat. Also note that the federal riding of Nipissing-Timiskaming just went Conservative in the federal election, and the Nipissing part of the riding is slightly more right wing.
    11 07 25 MF
    North Bay is more small-’c’ conservative than most of the North (i.e. not so good for the NDP, hometown of Mike Harris, etc.) and the Conservatives came within a hair of taking this in spite of having John Tory's leadership. Monique Smith is leaving and the McGuinty Liberals are a lot less popular this time around. Unless Hudak really bombs, I expect this to be a Tory pickup.
    11 07 19 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Stupid, stupid, stupid Liberals! They get a great candidate (Catherine Whiting) to go up against the very popular former may (PC candidate Vic Fideli) and they pull this Go Transit nonsense! Catherine outta go find McGuinty and give him a good smack off the head for being so foolish! Conservatives have it now for sure!
    11 07 16 Brainstrained
    For a time, it looked at though the Liberals were going to put up a fight by selecting the intelligent and respected former medical officer of health, Dr. Catherine Whiting, as a candidate and excellent counter to former mayor Vic Fedeli.
    Unfortunately they have now cut the legs out from under her by allowing the GO Transit maintenance contract to be given to a Quebec company, rather than Ontario Northland, over a $2 million difference, less than two per cent.
    And they may well have compounded the problem by announcing they are going to finance ON's maintenance of its own Polar Bear Express cars. That just reeks of political ass covering and falls far short of the economic blow of losing the GO contract.
    11 07 12
    With the loss of the Go Transit contract for repairs/etc going from North Bay to a Quebec company, surely this will go PC by an even bigger margin than previously thought. I seriously do not understand if Dalton McGuinty is trying to lose all of Northern Ontario on purpose? I actually think the NDP will take all the other Liberal-held ridings in the North, except maybe Sudbury which will be a close LIB-NDP battle.
    11 06 23 DT
    All I can say is that HWY 11 will be complete and re-open before the writ drops. Unless you've never had to do the treck to NB when it was one lane after Huntsville, you won't be able to appreciate how much this is going to mean. Couple in the likely launch of a detailed 'aging-at-home' strategy and this riding may not be as easy for the Tories to pick up as one mightn't think. Too Close to Call until the election is well under way
    11 03 28 Brainstrained
    The Liberals have yet to nominate a candidate to replace their current MPP, Monique Smith, who may well be accused of leaving before being shown the door.
    The facts that Smith was not a great communicator; Smith and the Liberals did not meet the expectations of many voters; and the perception, if not the reality, that North Bay interests were sacrificed for Sudbury's benefit; will put any Grit candidate in the hole to start.
    Add that the Tory's have nominated the popular former mayor Vic Fedeli, and this riding should be a Tory win.
    11 03 20 WAC
    Almost a certain Conservative pickup. The incumbent Monique Smith is will not be running again and the PCs are running a former mayor of North Bay as their candidate... having only lost by less than 500 votes in 2007 (this wast the Conservatives closest ‘loss’) and with the Conservatives doing much better in the polls now (up 44-35-16), it hard to see how the Liberals win this traditional Tory seat in 2011.
    11 03 01 Smartooo
    another fairly easy pickup for the Tories - Monique Smith saw the writing on the wall and jumped ship - She barely held on in 07 - when the tories ran a Brutal campaign - Chalk this as a gain for the Hudak PCs
    11 02 17 binriso
    Realistically the only other riding in the North that the PCs have a shot anyways, so theyll devote lots of effort to win it.
    11 01 30 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    This one is likely going to go to the conservatives. Monique Smith is bailing (was the last election a little too close for her?) and the PC have nominated North Bay's former mayor Vic Fedeli as their candidate. Contrary to what has been happening federally, North Bay likes it's Conservative politicians. City council is a whose who of failed provincial/federal conservative candidates. Having an older population and fewer forestry sector/mining sector/union-type workers, coupled with a general kick-the-bums-out attitude across the province and we have a PC pick up.

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