Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2011

London West


Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:35:50
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Bentley, Chris

Brown, Gary

Buchanan, Jeff

Chahbar, Ali

Gupta, Chris

Hodges, Tim

Incumbent:
Hon Christopher Bentley

Reference:

  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election


    2007 Result:


    * CHRIS BENTLEY
    25,96752.42%
    ALLISON GRAHAM
    12,01124.25%
    PAUL PIGHIN
    5,56211.30%
    GARY BROWN
    5,18410.47%
    ANDREW JEZIERSKI
    2670.54%
    PAUL MCKEEVER
    2340.47%
    MIKE REYNOLDS
    2010.41%
    CHRIS GUPTA
    1060.21%

    2003 Result (redistributed):

    2294950.51%
    1411731.07%
    694315.28%


  •  


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    11 10 04 OC
    99.249.120.14
    Ali Chahbar's went from being relatively unknown, to being within 5 percent according to the LFP and Forum Poll. London West doesn't care about Bentley's star power. A strong NDP surge looks imminent, and Chahbar will be the beneficiary of this.
    11 09 29 prognosticator15
    131.104.201.250
    I agree with A.S. that Bentley is the one to beat here, stronger than an average Liberal candidate, able to attract much personal support beyond the party support. Ali Chahbar, although from a known London Muslim family, is not as well known here as his now retired relative Ab Chahbar, former city councillor. I do not see any factors here benefitting the Tories. The riding is a swing one, not a solid stronghold, and here the personality and reputation of Bentley matter. The 'Muslim' vote may flock around Chahbar, but is not enough for him to win, even in combination with strong PC partisans. Comparisons with the federal elections do not stand, unless one claims CPC federal MP Ed Holder has acquired the same respectable hard-to-beat status as Liberal Bentley provincially. I am confident that even if the Tories win province-wide, Chris Bentley will not go down with the trend. I think it's time to call this for the Liberals; in fact, this is a more solid Liberal hold than LNC that I have just called for the Liberals (and this site for some reason already called months ago). There will be no surprises in London West.
    11 09 28 Dave
    99.249.122.159
    The London Free Press reported the following on September 26th:? After a long run as attorney general, Liberal Chris Bentley might have expected an easier time of it. But Tory Ali Chahbar is giving him a tough race that has become too close to call.?
    I'm picking this riding to flip back to the PC Party. Should be exciting though.
    11 09 25 AD
    24.246.31.39
    With the LPO no longer experiencing a major disadvantage in the polls this is looking like an easy hold. Should expect a decline in the margin of victory compared to last election but not enough for the Torys to take the riding.
    11 09 21 A.S.
    99.233.218.204
    Even by 2007 PC standards, 24.25% doesn't seem like much of an indication of ‘very popular’. And the inherent NDP weakness in London West is exaggerated; there's plenty of latent-and-real support in South London, Wortley Village, scatterings of apartments-and-rentals throughout--trouble is, all of that is up against Chris Bentley, who's now in pretty much an ‘outpolling his party’ state of affairs. If he loses, then the *Liberals* are bordering on losing-official-party-status status.
    11 09 20 Double J
    173.34.183.231
    This election is all about vote splits on the left. Bentley benefits from a very weak NDP presence in London West. Then there's the talk about Bentley being the favourite to replace McGuinty. London West voters will re-elect Chris Bentley in hopes they have a future party leader. The Liberals took power in the 1980's with a lawyer from London as their leader and may turn to Bentley next time. London West is sure victory for the Liberals.
    11 09 20 Bigchief
    173.33.4.64
    Bentley will win this one without much effort. The younger Chahbar is a nice kid and seems to be working hard but his lack of experience will hurt him against a future Premier-in-waiting in Bentley.
    Bentley won this seat easily in 2007 against the very popular Allison Graham, a columnist for the London Free Press.
    Look for Bentley to win this one going away.
    11 09 13 Canadian Election Atlas
    173.35.102.114
    While London West is perhaps the most right wing of London's three ridings, it will have the highest percentage of the vote for the Liberals. That's because the NDP will not do well here. The Tories will prove to be a threat, but with the Liberals polling better now, they should be able to keep the seat.
    11 09 12
    129.100.254.158
    Chris Bentley is another strong candidate to succeed Dalton McGuinty, so I cannot see voters in this riding giving him the boot. Ali Chahbar is much less well known.
    11 09 08 binriso
    =+=
    142.167.174.81
    11 09 04 Abc
    99.249.122.159
    This riding went Conservative at the Federal level by a wide margin. Despite the incumbency factor, the Liberal will be very hard pressed to separate himself from McGuinty's record. From what I hear, the PC candidate, Ali Chahbar, is working very hard to win this riding back. A lawyer, with some name recognition, I think he will do it, assuming Dalton keeps tanking. London West goes conservative this fall.
    11 08 21
    76.68.129.154
    Is this the same Ali Chabar that ran in the Federal election in the riding on the other side of town? How many parachutes does this guy have?
    11 07 01 DC
    174.94.26.145
    even tho it's been a liberal stronghold for the last 2 provincial elections, i look for the PC Candidate to win this riding, the provincial liberals are fast turning into iggy and the boys, my prediction is the Pc will win back the west
    11 05 23 LondonMike
    173.33.15.125
    This will undoubtedly be a Tory target. Mr. Bentley is somewhat vulnerable in this swing riding. However, keep history in mind here. In the last 50 years, Ontarians don't send the same party to Queen's Park as they do to Ottawa. However unpopular Dalton McGunity may be, I'd still give the edge to Bentley, although it will be very close.
    11 05 12 Gone Fishing
    216.8.160.102
    Can't see Chris Bentley losing this riding unless there is an all out collapse for the Liberals like that of the federal party. I don't think it's that bad for the McGoo clan. I think Bentley is a big part of the future of the party and I think people in London think that enough so that they will want him to stick around for the next leadership.
    11 03 14 seasaw
    99.224.215.171
    The Liberals should hold on to this riding, they will probably lose 6-10% support, however, that'll still be enough for a Liberal victory.



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