Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:31:15

Constituency Profile


Clark, Myrna

Jackson, Rod

MacKenzie, Matthew

Miller, Andrew

Roskam, Darren Adrian

Walsh, Karl

Hon Aileen Carroll, PC


  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election

    2007 Result:


    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    11 09 27 A.S.
    In Aileen Carroll's absence, I'd have to join in the ‘back to normal’ PC chorus for Barrie--though it's a seat that remains watching in the long term on the same grounds that led it to elect Aileen Carroll in the first place. Not that Myrna Clark's going to win now--then again, Paul Wessenger won for the NDP back in 1990...
    11 09 25 barrie voter
    I believe this will be a PC seat on Oct 6th. The Liberal Party candidate is rude and aggressive. Karl Walsh has embellished his career on a number of occasions, given that the man never completed high school. I believe that Myrna Clark is a great candidate but she is tired after running in the federal election earlier this year. I'm not convinced that she wants to be running in the provincial election as well. I am very impressed by Matthew MacKenzie who is running for the Freedom party. He speaks very well. Sadly, his party platform is very weak. Rod Jackson has been strong since the beginning. Beginning canvassing in May and out in the community still. I understand he missed a debate, but believe he met with the organizers the previous day on a one on one to hear their concerns. Karl Walsh missed a high school debate as well. I don't believe it's appropriate to be too judgmental over debate appearances given that everyone attending has usually already determined where the vote will be cast. It will be an interesting riding to watch, but I believe it will swing PC.
    11 09 19 d
    this race a open 3 way race, carroll is not running again. rodney jackson did not show up for one debate and spoke poorly at the first debate. walsh is a strong speaker but is to negative towards the Cons and ndp myrna clark is running after running in the federal election and coming in 2nd and has name recognition. watch this race and it could be close 3 way
    11 09 15 R.O.
    Been thru a good portion of Barrie the other day so i'll update my prediction , i'd say its definity leaning in favour of pc candidate Rod Jackson . he was ahead in signs in suburban areas of Barrie which make up the largest chunk of Barrie voters . liberals had some strengh in terms of signs in downtown area and streets that lead to it but not as many signs as previous years in Suburban areas from what i saw and remembered from past years when i was thru this riding during federal and provincial elections. also noticed a few ndp and green signs in suburban Barrie , it was unheard of to see ndp orange in such subdivisions a few years back so ndp definity doing better than past years usually they just have signs downtown or older areas of city , ndp signs didn't exist in the suburbs a few years back so who knows what is going on anymore. election is still very violitile based on polls that have come out so far so its too early to make an offical prediction .
    11 09 13 MV
    Let be honest, Barrie is probably the first seat in the Tory pickup list. I am maybe wrong but based on the 2003 results, the current riding went PC.
    11 07 31 eb119
    With Carroll not running again this is an easy PC pickup. She only beat the PCs by 2% last time, and with the current poll showing, plus no incumbency advantage, PC for sure
    11 07 31 R.O.
    This riding should easily return to the provincial conservatives but liberals still want to hold the seat. they have nominated Karl Walsh and sending a constent flow of cabinet ministers to the riding . overall both main candidates are somewhat known in the riding but neither be considered high profile . in the end it likely come down to whatever party is polling the strongest on election day. but i think without Aileen Carroll its tough to see how the liberals could hold on here especially during what could be a bad year for them if numbers stay where they are. also bad news for liberals that previous federal ndp candidate Myrna Clark is now running provincially they really needed a weak ndp candidate to have any hope of holding Barrie not an experienced federal candidate , she shockingly got 20% of the vote in recent federal race.
    11 07 14 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    With Aileen Carroll out of the picture, this should easily revert back to the PC party.
    11 03 08 MF
    This is very low hanging fruit for the PCs. This is a riding they should not have lost in the first place, and only narrowly did so in the context of John Tory's disastrous campaign and a strong Liberal candidate in Aileen Carroll. Now Aileen Carroll is leaving politics, the McGuinty government is much less popular than four years ago and the Conservatives on the upswing, this should be an easy pickup.
    11 02 13 jimbo
    Liberals are big trouble in Barrie. Now they are rudderless too. Jackson continues to build his profile and Hudak seems to be here in Barrie quite often. This would hard to lose for the PC's.
    11 02 13 Quixotae
    The Liberals have lost their greatest asset in Aileen Carroll. She would have had a hard time beating the the well liked and amiable PC Candidate Rod Jackson anyway. There is simply a huge anti McGuinty sentiment here; Barrie is the PC's to lose.
    11 02 11 binriso
    should be back into the PC column since it was largely due to a star candidate's win over a much weaker representative, Greens may surprise here and pick up some more votes to build on.
    11 01 23 EP
    This safe PC seat went Liberal last time because Aileen Carroll established a strong brand in Barrie during her time as MP and federal minister. Even with that brand she only scrapped by. Without her, the Liberals don't stand a chance.

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